Week 13 in the NFL: Picks and predictions

Thanksgiving weekend=lighting round of picks.. GO!



Last weeks record (including Thursday games): 14-3

Overall record: 112-55


Redskins @ Colts: So much for that Luck/RGIII showdown, huh?

Pick: Colts 33 Redskins 17

Titans @ Texans: Neither of these teams are particularly great at football. That’s all my analysis for now.

Pick: Texans 20 Titans 16

Browns @ Bills: Brian Hoyer has put my brain into a pretzel on more than one occasion this season, and I don’t like it. For the fourth week in a row, I’m picking against the Browns.

Pick: Bills 23 Browns 20

Chargers @ Ravens: The Ravens just have players and coaches who know how to win games/championships. They’re a sneaky scary football team.

Pick: Ravens 26 Chargers 20

Giants @ Jaguars: You know two teams that I’m NOT thankful for this holiday season? Yeah.

Pick: Giants 22 Jaguars 14

Bengals @ Buccaneers: In the words of long time Miami Herald reporter Greg Cote, “GAAAAAAWK goes the upset bird!” Never trust Andy Dalton for too long.. Never, ever do it.

Pick: Buccaneers 24 Bengals 17

Raiders @ Rams: Derek Carr is the man. The other 52 active players on the Raiders roster are not.

Pick: Rams 27 Raiders 13

Saints @ Steelers: So the Saints just aren’t good anymore, huh? That’s a weird thing to accept.

Pick: Steelers 30 Saints 20

Panthers @ Vikings: The Panthers are 3-7-1. The Vikings have Teddy Bridgewater. Good game here.

Pick: Vikings 19 Panthers 16

Cardinals @ Falcons: I miss Carson Palmer.. so do the Cardinals. Fortunately, they won’t need him this week.

Pick: Cardinals 21 Falcons 10

Patriots @ Packers: I’ve been waiting for this game for seven long, annoying, unbearable weeks here in New England. In the words of Alan Yoast.. “Run it up, Herman, Leave no doubt!”

Pick: Packers 35 Patriots 27

Broncos @ Chiefs: I’ve never seen a team dink and dunk more than the Denver Broncos do. I sort of lost a ton of respect for them last week because of it. But it works, so whatever.

Pick: Broncos 33 Chiefs 23

Week 13 Dolfan Viewer Guide: Who to Root for

This is potentially a huge week for the Miami Dolphins. For the past month teams have looked at Miami's schedule and saw opportunities for them to jump the Dolphins. They saw San Diego, Detroit, Buffalo, and Denver, and knew they had the chance to gain ground and distance on Miami..

Well, the Dolphins made it through the gauntlet in one piece, and now it's their turn to pounce.

This week is a perfect time to start, because there are playoff implication games everywhere you look in the crowded AFC.

For instance:


Browns @ Bills (1:00, CBS): I never thought this would be an actual sentence, but this is a huge game for the entire AFC. As much as I hate saying it, you have to root for Buffalo here. The Dolphins hold the tie breaking advantage over the Bills, while the Browns are a game up on Miami.

Chargers @ Ravens (1:00, CBS): Another mega game in the AFC. Both teams are a game up on Miami, however, the Dolphins already beat San Diego, and they still play Baltimore next week. What does this mean? Well, I'm not sure. You have to pick your poison here, and ask yourself this: Who scares you more? In looking at the teams, and the remaining opponents, I'd say the Ravens scare me more here. If you have to root for someone, I'd take the Chargers. Either way, the end result here will be good for Miami.

Titans @ Texans (1:00, CBS): Time to put the Texans, mercifully, to bed. Root Titans.

Bengals @ Buccaneers (1:00, CBS): The Bengals are the most Jekyll and Hyde team in the NFL. They're a division leader, but how good are they really? Regardless, root for a Tampa upset here.

Saints @ Steelers (1:00, FOX): Pittsburgh poses a major threat to Miami, as they are a streaky team with a one game lead over the Fins in the wild card. Root for Drew Brees and the Saints to get their act together here.

Patriots @ Packers (4:25, CBS): Miami still has a slim shot at the division. If they are going to have any hope going forward they need a Pats loss here.

Broncos @ Chiefs (8:30, NBC): Kansas City faces a deadly schedule the rest of the way. A loss here could send them into a tailspin, which is huge for the Dolphins. As much as you won't want to after last week, root for Peyton.


Picks and predictions coming up later.

Wallace, Misi Don't Practice; Where do Dolphins Stand in Playoff Race?

The Dolphins returned to the practice field today ahead of Monday night's showdown with the Geno Smith led New York Jets. Unfortunately, there were a few notable absences.

WR Mike Wallace didn't participate for undisclosed reasons. He was dealing with a calf injury last week, but the team won't release an injury report until tomorrow.

MLB Koa Misi did not practice either. He's been dealing with an ankle injury all season long, and was in and out of the Denver game.

CB Jamar Taylor wasn't at practice. Taylor left last week's game with a shoulder injury, and will miss at least three weeks according to reports. This is good news seeing as initial reports thought he would miss the rest of the season.

As for some good news...

CB Cortland Finnegan did participate in practice today, which is good news for a Miami defense in dire need of some support at the cornerback position. Finnegan hasn't played since the Detroit game, but could return this week. We'll know more as Monday gets closer.

TE Charles Clay practiced as well today after missing Sunday's game with a hamstring injury.

The Dolphins will return to practice tomorrow for just a half day, as Joe Philbin will let players go home early for Thanksgiving.


AFC PLAYOFF RACE

Miami's loss on Sunday wasn't great, but what made it worse was what happened with the rest of the AFC...

Cleveland won. San Diego won. Baltimore won. Buffalo won. Cincinnati won. In-fact, the only two AFC teams that lost (in the wild card race) were Miami and Kansas City (alright, Houston too).

This made Miami's path to the playoffs all the more difficult. Right now they sit at 6-5, and in possession of 10th place in the AFC. Here's how the entire playoff picture looks as of today:

5. Kansas City 7-4
6. San Diego 7-4
7. Baltimore 7-4
8. Pittsburgh 7-4
9. Cleveland 7-4
10. MIAMI 6-5
11. Buffalo 6-5
12. Houston 5-6

As you can see, it's one big ol' miss right now in the AFC. Luckily, the Dolphins may have a bit of an advantage when it comes to their schedule, mainly because the three teams in front of Miami all reside in the same division, which means they'll beat up on each other before it's all said and done.

Baltimore still has to play Cleveland. Pittsburgh still has to play Cincinnati twice. The Browns still have the Ravens and Bengals left.

On top of that, San Diego still has a brutal schedule in front of them—at Ravens (7-4), vs. Patriots (9-2), vs. Broncos (8-3), at 49ers (7-4), at Chiefs (7-4)— as do the Chiefs— vs. Broncos (8-3), at Cardinals (9-2), vs. Raiders (1-10), at Steelers (7-4), vs. Chargers (7-4).

The Dolphins, as I told you last month, just finished their gauntlet part of the year, and they came out of it at 2-2, something else I told you was critical.

Miami's schedule now looks a little easier, as they get the Jets twice, Minnesota, Baltimore, and New England.

As I see it, for the Dolphins to have a shot at making it, they can ill afford very many more losses.. In fact, anything less than a 4-1 finish may not be enough. How they get those four wins is up to them, but in looking at the schedule, it's obvious where the wins will come easiest— sweeping the Jets, and beating Minnesota.

That leaves New England and Baltimore. IF Miami takes care of business in the other three games they should only have to win of these two games. Neither will be easy, but with Baltimore at home I expect that to be more of a must win for the Dolphins then the New England game.

Regardless, we're at the point in the season where you absolutely cannot look ahead, something Miami could do this week with the Ravens looming next. However, I don't see this team doing that after coming off Sunday's loss.

As Joe Philbin said today, there's still a lot of football left to played. The Dolphins must win Monday night's game (and they should). With many of the wild card teams playing each other this weekend (Cleveland @ Buffalo, San Diego @ Baltimore), and some others facing tough opponents (Kansas City vs Denver, Pittsburgh @ New Orleans), the Dolphins could very well be right in the thick of things once again come Tuesday morning.

Thanksgiving Day picks coming up tomorrow.

[UPDATE: It's tomorrow, and I don't feel like creating a new post.. So here they are:

Lions, Cowboys, Seahawks.]

Happy Thanksgiving!

Inspired Dolphins Come up Short in 39-36 Loss to Broncos

Two things crippled the Miami Dolphins in that fourth quarter...

Injuries, and the Denver Broncos running game. In my opinion, those were the key factors in this Dolphins loss.

Late in the third quarter, CB Jamar Taylor left the game with a shoulder injury. He did not return, forcing third string CB Lowell Rose, and rookie Walt Aikens into the game.

The Broncos then picked apart the Miami defense in the fourth quarter, converting third down after third down. It got so bad that nickel back Jimmy Wilson was even forced into the CB spot.

The bigger problem, however, was the Denver running game. Put as simply as possible, they dominated this Miami defense today from the word go.

203 yards. 33 carries. Third down conversion after third down conversion. From the word go, it was pure domination at the line of scrimmage.

The Miami passing defense didn't do much better, as Peyton Manning rebounded from a shaky start to throw four TD passes (three to Demariyus Thomas) in the game.

Offensivly, the Dolphins came out firing with leads of 14-3 and 21-10. However, the defense could never hold the Denver offense.

Ryan Tannehill was superb today. The third year QB accounted for four touchdowns, including two to Jarvis Landry, one to Mike Wallace, and one with his feet. His passer rating at the end of the day was 104.9... the only problem was Peyton Manning's was 135.4.

Miami made it interesting towards the end of the game, as Jarvis Landry scored with over 1:30 left in the game. However, Denver would recover the ensuing onside kick and go on to win the game.

The Dolphins drop to 6-5 on the season, and must win four of their final five games to have a shot at the playoffs. Right now they currently sit a game behind Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Cleveland.

Miami travels to New York next Monday night to take on the New York Jets.

Dolphins lead Broncos 28-17 heading into final quarter

A long, seven minute Denver drive ended in a MISSED FG.. it was wide right off the goal post.

The following Miami drive ended in a punt, HOWEVER, the Dolphins would recover a fumble on the kick and take over inside the Denver 15.

Ryan Tannehill would then hit Jarvis Landry for a six yard TD pass to put Miami up 28-17.

The Broncos have the ball inside the Miami 20 to begin the fourth quarter.

Dolphins lead Broncos 21-17 at halftime

This is one of only three games this week in the NFL that features both teams over .500..

So far, it's lived up to that billing.

21-17 Miami at halftime.

Offensively, it's been flawless execution from the Dolphins.

Ryan Tannehill is 11-14 for 122 yards, a passing touchdown to Mike Wallace, and a 2 yard rushing score. He's been accurate, mobile, quick, and decisive. It was one of the best first halves Tannehill has had all season long.

He's had help, though. Lamar Miller had a first half career high 52 yards on 6 carries. Daniel Thomas has nine yards and the game's opening TD. Tannehill, as a just mentioned, has 15 yards on four carries.

From an execution standpoint, the offense had it's best first half of the year.

Defensively, it's been a mixed bag.

Miami dominated the first quarter, holding Peyton Manning to 11 passion yards. However, the Broncos have come out running the football, and it's paid off as RB C.J. Anderson has 53 yards on 10 carries.

The biggest disappointment for Miami came at the end of the half, when Manning and the Broncos faced a third and 20 from the Miami 38 with a minute to go. Manning found a wide open Emmanuel Sanders down the sidelines for a long gain. That was coupled with a 15 yard penalty on Jamar Taylor, who was beat on the play.

Denver will get the ball to begin the third quarter. Remember, Miami is the best scoring team in the third quarter this season.

The way this one is going, they'll have to keep it up.

Dolphins lead Broncos 7-3 after first quarter

The Dolphins offense could not have asked for a better start, as they took the opening drive 7 plays, 80 yards, in four minutes, ending in a Daniel Thomas two yard TD run.

The drive featured a long Lamar Mille run, a Ryan Tannehill seven yard read option keeper, and an 18 yard strike to TE Dion Sims.

Denver responded with a long drive of their own that ended in a field goal.

Both teams then traded three and outs, with the Dolphins retaking over at midfield after a nice Landry punt return.

Miami now has the ball at the Denver 25.

To the second.

Clay, Finnegan OUT for Dolphins; full inactive list

As I expected, both Charles Clay and Cortland Finnegan will not play today. Clay suffered a hamstring injury this week during practice, and Finnegan has been dealing with an ankle injury since the Detroit game.

In their places look for Dion Sims and Jamar Taylor to fill in, respectively. 

Lamar Miller and Daryn Colledge are active for the Dolphins, and both will start. Colledge will make his first start in over a month.

Here is the full list of inactives for Miami:

24 Cortland Finnegan

32 Jalil Brown

42 Charles Clay

56 Jonathan Freeny

75 Nate Garner

76 Anthony Johnson

77 Billy Turner

For the Broncos, TE Julius Thomas will NOT play today either. Monte Ball and Ronnie Hillman join him on the inactive list.

The Dolphins are in all white. 

Kickoff is in 90 minutes... the live blog will follow shortly thereafter.

See you there.

Gameday: Five Keys to a Dolphins Win PLUS Prediction

And welcome to another edition of Miami Dolphins gameday, as the Fins and Broncos are just about three hours away from their crucial week 12 matchup from Mile High.

As I'm writing this, Fox Sports has reported that Broncos TE Julius Thomas will NOT play today due to his ankle injury. If this is true, this is huge news for the Miami defense. Thomas poses numerous threats to this Miami defense, and with him Miami can put more of a focus on WR's Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas.

As for the game, here are the keys for the Dolphins:

1. Contain the crowd: This is the first home game for the Broncos in a month, so you can expect a ferocious crowd out of the gate. It will be crucial for the Dolphins to control the tempo of this game and not let it get out of hand at the beginning. If you get the ball, drive it down field and put up points. If you're on defense, hold them to a FG at least. Don't let them gain momentum at the start.

2. Run creatively: I touched on this earlier this week, so I'll keep this short.. In order to beat the Broncos, you have to run the football. I expect Ryan Tannehill to run the read option today, and I expect OC Bill Lazor to mix in some creative run calls throughout the game. In order to beat Peyton, you have to play keep away.. How do you play keep away? Run the ball.

3. Fast start for Tannehill: This is something I've picked up over the past few weeks, and it's something both Bill Lazor and Joe Philbin have touched on recently as well... Ryan Tannehill is a very hot and cold QB, as everybody very well knows. Over the past month, the Dolphins have allowed Tannehill to get off to fast starts by giving him some easy throws out of the gate, like last week when he started 8-9 on the first drive. I think they do the same thing today. Let Tannehill gain some confidence at first, and let him settle in to this huge game.

4. Expose the weaknesses: The weakness here being the Broncos offensive line. They're awful. They're, according to Mark Shelerath, "horrendous." The Miami front four MUST break through them today, get to Peyton, and throw his timing off. This is the biggest key to this game, because when Peyton has time to throw, well, they don't call him "The Sheriff" for nothing.

5. RED ZONE SUCCESS: It's in all caps for a reason.. This, single handedly, has been the Miami Dolphins biggest achilles heel of 2014. Offensively, they can get there, but can't finish the job. Defensively, teams don't get there a lot, but when they do, they score. When Miami gets inside the 20 today, field goals simply won't cut it, especially with the wind in Denver (20-25 MPH today). Score touchdowns, and hold Peyton to FG's.. Simple, right?

PREDICTION

Nobody is picking Miami to win this game. Not locally, not nationally, no one. I understand, too. Denver is coming off an embarrassing loss, and playing their first home game in a month. People expect them to be angry, and to be out for blood. 

But this Dolphins team doesn't get blown out. The defense is too good and prideful to let that happen. I expect Denver to win today, mainly because it's in Denver, but don't be surprised to see this Dolphins team shock the world. I certainly won't.

Final: Broncos 27 Dolphins 23

Alright, look for more pre game coverage right before kickoff as I'll have any last minute news for both teams, including the inactives.

Then, after you read that, come back during the game for the live blog.

Three hours.

Week 12 in the NFL: Picks and predictions

Another huge week in the NFL as December inches closer and closer.

To the picks!



Last weeks record: 7-7

Overall record: 99-52

Browns @ Falcons: As I said two weeks ago, I’m just not high on the Browns. I think they continue getting exposed this week to the 4-6, NFC South LEADING Atlanta Falcons. Yes, that’s a real life sentence.

Pick: Falcons 27 Browns 17

Titans @ Eagles: The Eagles are 5-0 at The Link this season. The Titans are a catastrophic mess. The Eagles are coming off a shellacking on Green Bay and are pissed off. The Titans played on Monday night. Tough pick here..

Pick: Eagles 33 Titans 20

Lions @ Patriots: We get it, national media, you have a weird, never ending fetish for the New England Patriots. Ps: Jonas Gray getting the cover of Sports Illustrated is the most outrageous, barbaric, asinine thing that’s ever happened in the history of the universe.

Pick: Patriots 24 Lions 21

Packers @ Vikings: Rip: Any defense that has played, or will play, Aaron Rodgers. I’ve said it a billion times if I’ve said it once.. he’s the best QB on the planet and it’s just not even a race.

Pick: Packers 35 Vikings 17

Jaguars @ Colts: Wow. That’s all I have to say on the matter. Just, wow.

Pick: Colts 34 Jaguars 13

Bengals @ Texans: Back to back road games is tough for any team in the league, especially one with quite possibly the most Jekyll and Hyde QB in the league. Also, JJ Watt.

Pick: Texans 20 Bengals 16

Jets @ Bills: Have you’ve ever wondered to yourself, “hey, self, why do star athletes choose places like LA and Miami over everywhere else?” Yeah, um, have you seen Buffalo over the past week? That’s why. I love the south. I love it so much.

Pick: Bills 16 Jets 13

Buccaneers @ Bears: Both of these teams are pretty bad at football, which is relatively surprising considering the Bears have around 98 different playmakers on offense. What a waste of talent.

Pick: Bears 26 Buccaneers 17

Cardinals @ Seahawks: Something just tells me the Seahawks are going to win this game. They’re definitely not as good as last year, and the Cardinals are clearly the better team.. However, I just can’t go against the Hawks at home. That’s essentially career suicide.

Pick: Seahawks 20 Cardinals 17

Rams @ Chargers: Shaun Hill is the man, so lets just get that out in the open right off the bat. But, Philip is slightly more of the man. Based on that knowledge, and the fact that San Diego really needs to win this game, I’m taking the cowboy over the journeyman.

Pick: Chargers 27 Rams 17

Redskins @ 49ers: Robert, for the love of God, just shut up. Like, seriously, worry about not being an awful QB, and then, once you’ve figured that out, you can start calling other people out. Weren’t you supposed to be smart?

Pick: 49ers 30 Redskins 16

Cowboys @ Giants: This would be such a classic Cowboys loss here. However, the Giants won’t let them do it. No, seriously, they won’t. Did you see that game last week? “In Eli we Trust,” says the other team, each and every week.

Pick: Cowboys 29 Giants 17

Ravens @ Saints: The worst thing to happen to the Ravens this season was New Orleans losing, at home, last week. I see you, Cincinnati. You sly dog. Just knocking out two birds with one stone: You get the improbable win last week, and, in effect, hand the Ravens a loss this week. No wonder Marvin Lewis has been the head coach since 1975.

Pick: Saints 27 Ravens 20


Gameday morning (afternoon) kicks things off tomorrow with all your Dolphins coverage as they get ready to take on "The Sheriff" from Mile High (is it still called that?) at 4:25 pm.

And, as always, come back during the game for quarterly coverage of all the action.

19 hours.

Dolfan Viewer Guide to Week 12: Who to Root For

Another huge week in the AFC, and it's off to a good start for the Dolphins, who got a boost with Kansas City losing on Thursday night. Here's how the AFC playoff picture looks right now:

5. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-4

6. Kansas City Chief 7-4
_______________________________________________________________________

7. Miami Dolphins 6-4

8. San Diego Chargers 6-4

9. Baltimore Ravens 6-4

10. Cleveland Browns 6-4

11. Houston Texans 5-5

12. Buffalo Bills 5-5


As of today, the Dolphins sit on the outside looking in. However, Pittsburgh is off this week, so this could be a critical win for the Dolphins.

As for the teams that are playing this week...


Browns @ Falcons (1:00, CBS): Pretty simple here, a Browns loss would be huge. An Atlanta win doesn't matter. Do the math.

Lions @ Patriots (1:00, FOX): The Pats hold a two game lead over Miami with next month's matchup looming. Any chance to gain a game before that would be huge.

Bengals @ Texans (1:00, CBS): This is a big time game with big time playoff impactions. The Bengals currently sit atop the AFC North at 6-3-1. The Texans, under Ryan Mallet, are coming off a season saving win in Cleveland. I say root for the Texans here, because I believe the Bengals could pose more of a threat to Miami.

Rams @ Chargers (4:05, FOX): San Diego is right on Miami's heels right now. Any time they lose from here on out will be welcomed in South Florida.

Jets @ Bills (7:00, CBS Monday): The Bills haven't practiced in a week due to the weather in Buffalo. Time for Jets to expose that and knock Buffalo out for good.

Ravens @ Saints (8:30, ESPN Monday): Baltimore travels to Miami in two weeks for a major AFC showdown. It would be nice to put some distance on them before then. Monday night at New Orleans could be a great time to start.


Picks and predictions coming up.

Troublesome Injury Report for Miami Dolphins

All week the talk has centered around the health of the Denver Broncos.

Julius Thomas is banged up with an ankle injury. Emmanuel Sanders got hit into next year last Sunday. Monte Ball is dealing with a groin problem.

All good, right?

Wrong.

The final injury reports came out today for both Miami and Denver, and TE Charles Clay is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game with a hamstring injury. The setback, one has to assume, had to take place over the course of practice this week, as this hasn't been an issue until yesterday's report.

This is a big loss for Miami, make no mistake about it. Yes, Clay has had a down year compared to 2013. However, he's come around over the past month, and continues to be one of Ryan Tannehill's most reliable targets, especially in the red zone, where the Dolphins already, well, stink.

So yes, this is a huge loss if Clay can't go, and all signs are pointing that direction right now.

If/when he can't, look for Dion Sims, who hasn't played in three weeks with a toe injury, to fill in. Sims appears to be back to full health, and can be an asset to this offense. He's a phenomenal blocker, but can also have the knack for the big play (Oakland, Jacksonville, Chicago).

A couple more notable names on the report include CB Cortland Finnegan, who missed last week's game with an ankle injury. Finnegan, like Clay, is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game. Expect Jamar Taylor to get his second straight start.

G Daryn Colledge is listed as questionable on the final report. He hasn't played since exiting the Jacksonville game with migraines, and has been dealing with a back problem. This, right now, seems like the most up in the air status for the Dolphins. I expect Colledge to go even though he's been limited in practice all week. If he can't look for Shelly Smith to once again fill in alongside Ja'Waun James on the left side.

RB Lamar Miller also popped up on today's final injury report with knee injury to go along with his nagging shoulder separation. This is something to monitor, but I expect Miller to be fine on Sunday.

For the Broncos, TE Julius Thomas is listed as questionable. I expect him to play, but his snap count could very well be limited.

WR Emmanuel Sanders is listed as probable, so he's obviously passed all of the concussion protocols and will play. Jamar Taylor will be the one to cover him.

And finally, RB Monte Ball is listed as doubtful and is not expected to play.

Two days.

Dolphins Midweek Musings PLUS Injury Report

The Dolphins were back at it today in Davie as they continue to prepare for Sunday's HUGE game against the Denver Broncos.

There has been a lot of talk about this game, and speculation seems divided on what we're going to see.

Some people see the Broncos as vulnerable right now. They see a team that is banged up physically, with TE Julius Thomas, RB Monte Ball, and WR Emmanuel Sanders all nursing injuries that may keep them out of Sunday's game.

They also see a team that is banged up mentally. They see an offense searching for an identity, and a QB coming off one of his worst performances in a long, long time.

The other people see an angry Broncos team coming off an embarrassing loss that's looking to regain the respect of the league. They see an angry QB, angry group of receivers, and angry defense that's hungry to get back on the field.

I tend to lean with, um, both of these groups. Easy way out, I know.

However, I didn't at first. In fact, at first, I was mortified while watching the Denver game on Sunday. With every bad Peyton Manning pass, every Broncos punt, every Rams sack, I had one thought...

Crap. This could be a problem.

We've seen it too many times in the NFL. When a good team gets beat like the Denver Broncos just did, you never, and I mean never, want to be the next team to play them.

Just ask the Cincinnati Bengals, who had the luxury of playing Tom Brady following the debacle in Kansas City.

But then I thought about, and looked at this game inside and out, up and down, left and right. And I realized that these Dolphins actually match up pretty well the Broncos. In a lot of ways, this team is a better version of the team that just beat them, the St. Louis Rams.

The Rams beat Peyton Manning because they have a really good defensive front. They were able to put pressure on Manning without blitzing, something that's absolutely crucial if you're going to beat an elite QB.

Miami has an equally good, if not better defensive front. One that's been playing championship caliber football for six weeks now.

The Rams also tackled really well in Sunday's game. This will be one of, if not the biggest, keys for Miami. Peyton Manning has made a career out of defenses that don't tackle well. He finds the open receiver, gets him the ball in the most accurate way known to man, and lets the receiver make a play.

If defenses do not tackle well, then this Denver offense will feast on you. Just like at the Oakland game from two weeks ago, where Manning found C.J. Anderson for a short gain on the left sideline. What happened next?

Instead of wrapping him up, Anderson broke upwards of five tackles, found a wide open middle of the field, and then found the end zone for a long touchdown right before halftime.

The Rams didn't let this happen last week. They tackled extremely well. Lately, this Miami defense has done a tremendous job of tackling as well. This is something that hasn't always come easily with this team, if you remember. Earlier in the year tackling was a HUGE problem. Look at the Buffalo game. Look at the Kansas City game. Look at the Green Bay game.

But over the past six weeks, including Thursday's game, this unit has been extremely sound in this area. Like the Rams did, this will be a must on Sunday.

Offensively, it becomes a bit more muddled. The Rams ran the football all day against this Denver defense, and they did it extremely effectively to the tune of 131 yards on 31 carries. Again, this is an area where the Miami Dolphins are a glorified version of St. Louis, in that they're just a better version of them.

The Dolphins rank sixth in the NFL in rushing, averaging 127 yards per game. The Rams rank 20th, averaging close to 100 yards per game. Following the same formula St. Louis used, I believe Miami must attack the Denver defense on the ground, but they must do it differently.

What I mean by that is, the Dolphins just aren't going to be able to lineup and pound the football down Denver's throats. I know the Rams did this last week, but I tend to think that was more of an aberration than anything. Why? Because Denver boasts the league's second ranked run defense, one that's coming off a miserable performance.

Like the glass half empty group I mentioned above, I don't think they're about to let this happen again. That's why Bill Lazor must reincorporate the read option in this game. This is something that was hot for about four weeks, but has been shied away from over the past two. On Sunday, I think it's time to break it back out for a couple reasons..

Number one, Lamar Miller is not the same back Tre Mason is. Mason ran 29 times for 113 yards on Sunday. Miller has never, and will never, run the ball that many times. He's not that type of back, and he doesn't have the body nor the health for it.

But, you have to run the ball against this team. You have to eat up time of possession (The Rams won that battle handedly on Sunday), and you have to avoid becoming one dimensional. So what do you do? As I said, you get creative in your schemes, let Ryan Tannehill use one of his greatest weapons, and you keep the Denver defense guessing.

The match ups are out there for Miami to win. The injuries are just severe enough to possibly sideline some key players.

So the question begs..

Do you get a pissed off Denver Broncos team?

Or a vulnerable one?

You make the call. Because I sure can't. (Yes, another cop out, I know).


INJURY REPORT

Some good news, and some not so good news here.

First, the good. LG Daryn Colledge practiced in for the second time in a row today, albeit on a limited basis. Barring a setback I believe he should be ready to make his first start since last month.

Lamar Miller practiced in full today for the second day in a row. It appears he's close to 100% again.

Now, to the worrisome. CB Cortland Finnegan did not practice today, and has not practiced all week. His status for Sunday remains up in the air, but I'm not feeling good about it right now. If he can't go, expect Jamar Taylor, who played well last week, to get his second straight start.

Jonathan Freeney has already been ruled out of Sunday's game after sustaining a hamstring injury last week. Freeney is one of Miami's best special team players, so this could be troublesome for an already shaky unit that lost Will Davis as well last week.

Other notable players who were limited in practice include Charles Clay, Jarvis Landry, Mike Wallace, and Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill apparently is dealing with a left shoulder injury right now, but I expect him to be fine come Sunday.

Four days.

Dolfan Viewer Guide to Week 11: Who to Root For

One of the more popular segments of 2013 is back. Yes, it's that time of year again, where scoreboard watching is socially acceptable and, with the Dolphins off today, what better week to start your watching than today?

So, without further ado, here is the first viewer guide of 2014:


Texans @ Browns (1:00, CBS): Houston is on the outside looking in at 4-5, while the Browns currently lead the AFC North with a surprising 6-3 record. The Texans shouldn't scare Miami, especially now that they've made the switch to Ryan Mallet, so if they can pull of the upset on the road and knock the Browns to four losses that would be huge going forward. Root Texans all day long.

Seahawks @ Chiefs (1:00, FOX): I picked the Seahawks to win this game, and I expect them to. A Kansas City loss would be huge for the Dolphins, as the Chiefs pose a major problem for Miami going forward.

Bengals @ Saints (1:00, CBS): I expect the Bengals downward spiral to continue today. For Dolfans, a Cincinnati loss would be welcomed with open arms, as they are ahead of the Dolphins in the loss column right now.

Raiders @ Chargers (4:05, CBS): Today would be a fantastic day for the Raiders first win of the season... Root for it, but don't count on it. Luckily, Miami already beat San Diego, so this game isn't all to important yet.

Patriots @ Colts (8:30, NBC): A Colts win puts Miami one game behind the Patriots with six to play, including a trip to Gillette in a few weeks. Need I say more?

Titans @ Steelers (8:30, ESPN): Miami got a huge break when the Steelers lost last week.. Another one this week would be huge for the Dolphins playoff hopes... however, I wouldn't count on it.


Broncos week begins tomorrow.

Seven days.

Week 11 in the NFL: Picks and predictions

Last weeks record: 8-4

Overall record: 92-45


Vikings @ Bears: On Sunday night, the Bears joined the 1922 Rochester Jefferson’s as the only two teams to give up 50 plus points in consecutive games. That’s not a made up stat.

Pick: Vikings 21 Bears 20

Texans @ Browns: This is about as textbook of a letdown game as I’ve ever seen. BradyBackUpBowl 1 goes to Mallett.

Pick: Texans 17 Browns 14

Seahawks @ Chiefs: Marshawn Lynch will leave some members of the Kansas City defense really rethinking their lives after this one. Seriously, he’s a one man team in himself.

Pick: Seahawks 24 Chiefs 17

Falcons @ Panthers: Watching Cam Newton right now is about as enjoyable as triple bypass heart surgery.

Pick: Falcons 24 Panthers 20

Bengals @ Saints: Andy Dalton.

Pick: Saints 28 Bengals 16

Buccaneers @ Redskins: I literally don’t care.

Pick: Redskins 21 Buccaneers 16

Broncos @ Rams: Hm. Guess he’s not all that great, is he, Brett Favre? Still one of the most preposterous statements I’ve ver heard from anyone in my entire life. RIP, the Austin Davis bandwagon.

Pick: Broncos 35 Rams 20

49ers @ Giants: Jim Harbaugh’s the man again…. for now. Give it a few weeks and they’ll be chasing him down with pitch forks again, don’t worry. I say weeks because he’ll buy some more time with an easy win this weekend.

Pick: 49ers 30 Giants 17

Raiders @ Chargers: Derek Carr desperately throwing to his clearly illegal offensive lineman, who then subsequently fumbles, is one of the funnier images of 2014.

Pick: Chargers 34 Raiders 14

Eagles @ Packers: The Mark Sanchez comeback tour comes to a screeching halt on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL and it’s not even kind of close.

Pick: Packers 30 Eagles 23

Lions @ Cardinals: Watching Carson Palmer crumble last week made me weep like a little girl, and I don’t care who knows it. He’s the man. Drew Stanton is not. Good luck this week, kid.

Pick: Lions 16 Cardinals 13

Patriots @ Colts: Andrew Luck is at home, coming off a bye, and in the midst of a superb season. He will beat Tom Brady on Sunday night. It’s pretty simple, actually.

Pick: Colts 30 Patriots 27

Steelers @ Titans: Riveting, riveting stuff to end the week. Who doesn’t want to watch Zach Mettenberger most likely get pummeled by a pissed of Pittsburgh team to cap of week 11 in the NFL?

Pick: Steelers 33 Titans 16

Behind Second Half Rally, Dolphins Overcome Bills 22-9

It was a must win game... and the Dolphins did just that.

They won. 

And they won convincingly.

Ryan Tannehill was superb. The third year QB converted 26-34 passes, for 240 yards, and two huge touchdowns- one to Brandon Gibson and one to Jarvis Landry- en route to a season saving 22-9 win.

Tannehill was everything he wasn't over the past five meetings with the Bills: He was efficient. He was smart. He was accurate. He was clutch. 

And he was, most importantly, the best QB in this game, and on this night.

His counterpart, Kyle Orton, struggled. After a solid first half, Orton was stifled by the Miami defense, as he, along with the rest of the Buffalo offense, went 0-8 on third downs in the second half after converting 6-8 third down's in the first two quarters.

On par with the rest of the season, the Dolphins came out and dominated in the third quarter.

Following a Buffalo punt midway through the opening quarter of the half, Tannehill and the Dolphins drove down field, and ended an 8 play drive with a 7 yard TD pass to Brandon Gibson.

On the following drive, Bills QB Kyle Orton was called for intentional grounding inside his own end zone on third down, which resulted in a safety. 

Dan Carpenter would miss a FG on the following Bills drive, which was the result of a Jarvis Landry fumble.

Following the missed FG, Tannehill drove the Fins down the field yet again, this time hitting Jarvis Landry for an 8 yard touchdown.

Miami never looked back.

This was a huge win for this team. As I said before the game, it doesn't matter how they do it, and it doesn't matter what the score is.. the only thing that matters is that they're the winning team at the end of the night. 

That's exactly what happened. The Dolphins got the job done, after being down midway through the third quarter, and kept their playoff hopes very much alive in the AFC. In-fact, the division hopes are alive as well, as a Patriots loss on Sunday would put the Fins one game out with six to play.

The Dolphins will travel to Denver next Sunday to take on the Peyton Manning.

Luckily, they'll have three extra days of rest.

They'll need it.

For now, however, this is a huge victory for the Miami Dolphins.

More to come.

Dolphins lead Bills 12-9 after third quarter

A wild, wild third quarter of play.

Following a Buffalo punt and Miami punt, Dan Carpenter made it 9-3 Bills.

However, the Dolphins would drive down the field, and cap it off with a TD pass to Brandon Gibson, who was wide open in the end zone.

On the next Buffalo drive, Kyle Orton would commit intentional grounding in the end zone, resulting in a safety.

On the ensuing punt, Jarvis Landry fumbled at the Miami 39 yard line.. The Bills recovered and currently have the ball at the Miami 28 yard line. They face a third and 11 when the fourth quarter commences.

Go there now.

Bills lead Dolphins 6-3 at halftime

The Miami Dolphins are playing too well offensively to only have three points in this football game.

Ryan Tannehill has played well. He finished the first half 14-18 for 136 yards, however, a costly red zone fumble tainted an otherwise strong start.

The running game has been solid as well, putting up 56 on 8 carries. Lamar Miller had a 33 yard run in the second quarter, which was his highest for the season.

The problem has been on defense. Simply put, this unit just cannot get off the field. Buffalo has had two drives in this game, a 14 play drive and a 17 play drive. The Bills are 6-8 on third down. That's not going to work going forward.

Luckily, the defense kept Buffalo out of the end zone on both drives. Like the Dolphins, the Bills struggle mightily in the red zone.

Tannehill's fumble is the difference in this must win game right now. The Bills will get the ball when the second half begins.

Can the defense get a stop?

To the third.

Fins, Bills tied at three after first quarter

Miami took the ball 64 yards on 14 plays on the opening drive... however, like so many times before, the drive ended in a Caleb Sturgis FG.

Ryan Tannehill started 8-9 on the drive, which featured a 32 yard pass, third and 24 third down conversion, to Damien Williams. As I suspected, the Dolphins are using a lot of quick throws and dump down passes tonight.

However, the Bills responded with a 14 play drive of their own, which also ended in a FG.

Remember, both these teams rank towards the bottom of the league in red zone production.

To the second.

Dolphins, Bills nearing prime time kickoff; full inactive list

Sold out crowd. Prime time game. Division rival. National TV. Season on the line.

Nothing more needs to be said.



The inactives for Miami include:

CB Cortland Finnegan, RB Lamichael James, LB Chris McCain, LG Daryn Colledge, DT Anthony Johnson, G Billy Turner, DE Terrance Fede.


The inactives for Buffalo:

Fred Jackson, Ron Brooks, Phillip Tanner, Randell Johnson, Cyrus Kouandjio, Marquise Goodwin, Jarius Wynn.

The Dolphins are in aqua tops, with aqua pants for the first time in over a decade. The Bills are in... well, who cares, the Dolphins are in all aqua so it doesn't matter.

Kickoff is an hour away, the live blog begins shortly thereafter.

Must win.

One hour.

Game day: Five Keys to a Dolphins (must) Win PLUS Prediction

I've covered many, many Dolphins games.

I remember the playoff game against Baltimore in 2001, a 20-3 blowout.

I remember week 17 in 2008, where Chad Pennington beat the Jets to take the AFC East in a do or die game seven.

I remember last season where... well, you know.

But I'm finding it hard to remember a game with this much anticipation, and this much on the line, for the Miami Dolphins.

Over 70k tickets have been sold. 70,000. Sun Life Stadium hasn't been that full since the Marino years.

This is a primetime, national tv, Jim Nance and Phil Simms game.

This is the game where the Dolphins break out the all aqua uniforms for the first time in over a decade.

This is, in it's simplest form, the biggest, most important stage this team has been on in a long, long time.

With everything on the line.

To the keys:


1. Get back to what's been working: That's running the football. Yes, I realize you couldn't last week, I knew you wouldn't be able to. But did you see that Kansas City offense last week? Alex Smith ran the read option for a touchdown. Jamaal Charles ran for 98 yards and a touchdown. This Buffalo defense is good, but the run defense isn't Detroit Lions good. Run the ball tonight, and run it often.

2. Pass it, but pass it quickly: Quick slants, screen passes, five yard outs... anything to keep that front four from getting to you. Ryan Tannehill is beat up, and one big hit could send him to the locker room. IF you want this pass offense to work tonight, be creative about it, and be quick about it.

3. Earn the respect: All week you've heard about the Buffalo front four. Yes, they're fierce, and intimidating, and relentless. But guess what? So is the front four for the Miami Dolphins. You're at home, going against a QB who doesn't do well under pressure, with your backs against the wall. Go out and take back your respect.

4. Finish the job: I'm talking about red zone production. I'm talking about getting first downs when they count. I'm talking about making a defensive stand. This team has showed us they can blow teams out, but they have yet to show us they can win close games. I don't see a blowout tonight, and I wouldn't be surprised if this game is very similar to last week's. So what does that mean? Finishing, in all facets, will be beyond critical.

5. Harness the home crowd energy: As I said, this game, according to a report, is the most expensive Dolphins ticket in the past five years (NE and NYJ games aside). Sun Life Stadium will absolutely, without a doubt, be fired up from the get go tonight.... but it's Miami's job to take advantage of it, use it, and win with it. A slow start out of the gate will take any advantage you have and crush it. The Dolphins cannot afford to let this happen. Use the home field, and use it early. (For more on how important home field is, look at the picture above, which was taken just moments ago)

PREDICTION

Look, this isn't a good matchup for Miami, and it hasn't been for two years now.

The offensive line features a rookie LT, and an extremely suspect RT. The defense features a second year CB starting instead of Cortland Finnegan. The QB is banged up, the RB is banged up, and your best player is out for the year.

But they cannot lose tonight. Not at home, not under the lights, not with everything on the line. Sometimes a desperate team defies what all the match ups say should happen, and tonight, I see a desperate team fighting for their season, for their coach, and for the respect of the league.

I can't pick against that.


Final: Dolphins 20 Bills 17


Alright, come back in a few hours for last minute news, including your inactives for both teams.

THEN, follow the live blog throughout the game, beginning after the opening quarter.

Five hours.

With Season Teetering, Time is Up For Miami Dolphins

If you really want to know who these Miami Dolphins are, look no further than their red zone production.

The Dolphins lead the entire league in total red zone trips. A staggering 43 times this team has marched down the field and inside the opponents 20 yard line.

However, they rank 30th when it comes to converting those trips into touchdowns. 30th. Three-oh.

Third worst in the NFL.

That, right there, is as simple as it gets when it comes to explaining these Miami Dolphins. They can be really, really good. They can drive all the way down the field, Ryan Tannehill can make all the throws a franchise QB needs to make, but when it comes down to crunch time, when it's time to put the big boy pants on, this team fails almost every time.

Red zone production. It's a microcosm of who and what this team is.

With week 11 set to kickoff in less than 24 hours, it's time for the Miami Dolphins to make a choice.

It's time for them to either figure it out and make the leap into contender status, or fall away like so many teams before them.

At 8:25 tomorrow night, the clock will inch closer to midnight, and where the Dolphins stand when all zero's flash in the fourth quarter is where they will most likely be standing for the remainder of this season.

A 6-4 playoff hopeful..

Or a 5-5 postseason dreamer.

Like the red zone production, it's time for this team to either punch it in, or punch out. One or the other. With the season over halfway through, there is no more time for the in between.

The stage is set up perfectly for them, too.

Prime time. National TV. Home game. Sold out stadium. Division rival. What more do you need?

There are no excuses for losing this one. It doesn't matter who's playing, who's hurt, or what the match ups say should happen. For the Miami Dolphins, the goal should be simple, and it should be clear:

Win. And win at all costs.

It's time for this team to play desperate. It's time for this quarterback to make a decision, one way or the other, about who he's really going to be. It's time for this defense to make a stand, and it's time for this offense to put a game away.

With everything, and I mean everything, on the line, there is no excuse for this Dolphins team to lose tomorrow night.

They can't afford to.

Too much time has been invested into this team. Too much talent is being wasted. Too many jobs are on the line.

A loss sends this season into a downward spiral. A loss means you have to go on the road and beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

This team is good. But they're not that good. Not many are.

You see, there really is no other option tomorrow night. For the Miami Dolphins, it's simple:

Either you want it, or you're out. Either you're a playoff team or not.

The days of in between are over. This season is teetering right now. It's teetering for Joe Philbin, for Ryan Tannehill, for everyone within the organization.

Time's up for the Miami Dolphins.

Tomorrow night, a choice will be made. And it could impact this organization far beyond 2014.

To chronicle my inner Chad Johnson... Getcha popcorn ready.

BREAKING: No need to play Thursday night, the Dolphins just won

...Because they're breaking out these:

This was a picture the team's CEO, Tom Garfinkel, just posted on twitter a few moments ago. All aqua everything for the first time in over a decade. 

So pretty much it's over.

Okay, back to your day.

Ailing Dolphins With Backs Against Wall On Short Week

Alright, time to move on.

Thursday night's game is simply too big, and too important to continue dwelling on the Detroit game.

In my opinion, this game is Miami's season. Plain and simple. If you remember, two weeks ago, ahead of the San Diego game, I said this:

Somehow, someway the Dolphins have to come out of this three game stretch with two wins. I don't care who it's against, I don't care what it looks like, but they have to head into Denver wit at least six wins.

Two weeks later nothing has changed.

Yes, the Dolphins had that game. Yes, they were a few first downs, or one defensive stand, away from sitting at 6-3 in the AFC. But, like so many times before, they came up short. It happened. It was frustrating. But it's over with now.

On to Thursday night. On to the anti-christ  Buffalo Bills.

Everything is on the line here. Mike Wallace said it best today: We can't get swept, especially in the division. Especially not two years in a row.

No, you can't. Not when so much is at stake. Not when there is such a stark difference between 6-4, and 5-5, in a muddled, competitive, cluster you know what of an AFC.

Miami needs this game more than they've needed any other game in this entire season.

They need it for tiebreaker purposes. They need it to keep pace with Kansas City, and Baltimore, and Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. They need it, maybe most importantly, for morale purposes, because this team just hasn't been able to beat these Buffalo Bills.

Not in their first meeting last season. Not in their crucial second meeting. And definitely not earlier this year.

Ryan Tannehill and Joe Philbin are 1-5 against the Bills. Miami hasn't beaten them since a meaningless game in December two years ago.

That MUST change Thursday night. Somehow, someway, this team has to find a way to win this football game.

Players have to step up, and step in.

Ja'Waun James must be a rock at left tackle. No excuses.

Somebody, whether it be Dallas Thomas, or Shelly Smith, or Nate Garner must fill in at right tackle.

Jamar Taylor and/or Will Davis must fill in for Cortland Finnegan across from Brent Grimes.

Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas must do better filling in for Lamar Miller.

You see, this team is ailing right now. Even Ryan Tannehill, arguably the teams toughest player, is on the injury report this week with both ankle and shoulder injuries.

Combine all of this with a short week, and a division game, and a must win game, and the defensive line of the Buffalo Bills, and you get a grim set of circumstances.

But it can all be fixed, albeit temporarily, with a win.

A win, and it all goes away.

A win, and you're smack dab in the thick of the AFC playoff race. A win and you're a game back of New England (for the time being) with one game still to play in Foxborough.

A win, and you've finally exiled those demons that have been hanging around for over a year now.

If this team wants to make December matter, then winning this mid-November showdown is a must.

If this team wants to play in January, and there is absolutely no reason why they cannot, than losing Thursday night is simply not an option.

I said it last month, and I'll say it again now:

Somehow, someway, the Miami Dolphins have to find a way to win this game.

And they have two days to figure out how.

Dolphins squander late lead, lose to Lions 20-16

Another lead, another NFC North opponent, another opportunity to make a huge statement.

Another collapse.

20-16.

Matt Stafford threw a game winning TD on third and 4 with 35 seconds left to beat the Dolphins, who had a three point lead with under three minutes to play.

Once again, the defense simply could not hold. Once again Joe Philbin called two questionable time outs.

Heartbreaking.

The offense had a chance to seal it earlier in the game. They took over with under four minutes left, needing 3 first downs to ice it.

They went three and out.

This was a slugfest. Branden Albert left the game on a cart and is feared to be lost for the season. Cortland Finnegan couldn't finish the game and is headed to the MRI room. Koa Misi was sidelined on the final drive. Ryan Tannehill took an absolute beating.

All for nothing. 

Now, there is no shame in losing, on the road, to the second seed in the NFC. Absolutely none. 

But, once again, it was the way the Dolphins lost that hurts all the more. 

Missed chances. Missed opportunities. Questionable calls.

It just doesn't work. Miami is a good football team. A win today would have moved them to possibly great. But, like so many times before, they came up just short.

Luckily, there is no time to dwell on this one. The Buffalo Bills, also losers today, are coming to town on Thursday night for what I consider an elimination game.

A win, and all of this goes away. Six wins with six to play is a promising outlook for Miami. 

But get swept by Buffalo.. At home... In prime time... On national TV?

Stick a fork in them.

Dolphins lead Lions 13-10 after third quarter

Crazy, crazy game in Detroit.

A long Lions drive, set up by a 4th and 6 conversion, ended in a Matt Prater FG.

However, Earl Mitchell blocked it, and Dion Jordan returned it all the way to the Lions 5.

Ryan Tannehill would find Mike Wallace on the next play to put Miami up.

The lions are on the move as we head to the fourth.

Dolphins trail Lions 10-3 at halftime

It wasn't pretty. In fact, every single play was a struggle.

However, the Dolphins only trail 10-3 at halftime.

Ryan Tannehill has struggled. He hasn't been terrible, but he also hasn't been smart.

On third down inside the Detroit 20 Tannehill threw an awful interception that would have been returned for a TD had he not chased the returner all the way down the field.

That proved to be a huge play, because Brent Grimes intercepted Stafford in the endzone on the very next play. Grimes made one of the best one handed catches you'll ever see.

Miami would match down the field and kick a FG at the end of the half.

The big story is Branden Albert, Miami's best player in my opinion. Albert was carted off the field with a right leg injury. It did not look good, folks. Season ending bad.

Ja'Waun James is your new LT for the very foreseeable future.

Defensively, the Dolphins have fought. A fake punt led to a DET field goal. A 49 yard TD to Calvin Johnson is the difference in this game.

Offensively, the Miami run game has been stifled. The Dolphins have 10 rushes for 18 yards.

Ryan Tannehill has not run yet.

Miami gets the ball to begin the third. They MUST get points out of it.

Lions lead Fins 10-0 after first quarter

It was a bad first quarter. 

But it could have been worse.

The defense forced a Detroir punt on their first drive. However, a fake punt pass for 26 yards negated the good stand.

Following a FG, the Miami offense went three and out. The Detroit defensive line, led by Suh, has so far dominated.

That drive was followed by a 49 yard TD to Calvin Johnson.

Following another Miami 3 and out, the defense stiffened up and forced a DET punt.

Miami now has the ball and is driving.

To the second.

Miller ACTIVE as Fins, Lions near kickoff; full inactive list

What we speculated all week has been right- Lamar Miller will play today despite his shoulder sprain.

Now, we don't know the extent of Miller's role. I suspect he'll be limited, somewhere around the 8-12 touch mark. Even with him playing, expect a lot of Daniel Thomas and Damien Williams.

Here is the full inactive list for Miami:

LG Daryn Colledge, OT Jason Fox, DT Anthony Johnson, G Billy Turner, TE Dion Sims, LB Kelvin Sheppard, DE Terrence Fede.


And for the Lions:

Eric Ebron, Nick Fairley, Joe Fauria, Ryan Broyles, Larry Webster, Garrett Reynolds, Kellen Moore.


Yes, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush will play today. Big boy time for this defense.

I suspect the Dolphins will be in the all white uni's, while the Lions will be in the blue and silver. No confirmation on either of those yet.

Live blog starts after the first quarter.

Kickoff is right around 90 minutes away.

See you then.

Gameday: Five Keys to a Dolphins Win PLUS Prediction

Huge day today for the Miami Dolphins. They passed their first test last week in a 37-0 drubbing of the San Diego Chargers. As I wrote yesterday, today begins the first of two massive tests in the next four days.

How do they go to Detroit and defeat the six win Lions?

Glad you asked:


1. Prove your worth: The Miami defense has been getting a lot, and I mean a lot, of hype over the past week. As I told you yesterday, NFL Network even went as far as to call them a championship defense. Today, it's time to back that up. Keep the big plays to a minimum, put constant pressure on Matt Stafford, and contain Reggie Bush. Do it for 60 minutes, and prove you belong.

2. Stay hot: And what I mean by that is stay hot in the turnover game. Three picks last week, two the week before, two the week before that. Mix in a couple fumbles that I'm sure I'm forgetting, and you have a defense that's showing a knack for finding the football right now. That MUST continue today.

3. Step up: Lamar Miller will play today. However, he's going to be limited. There's no way around that. Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas MUST fill in for Miller. Without a legitimate running attack, you become one dimensional, and when you become one dimensional against the league's best defense, um, things don't end well. Williams and Thomas have to compensate for a less than 100% Lamar Miller today.

4. Stay hot, Part two: Who I'm talking to this time is Ryan Tannehill. The kid is in the midst of his best stretch of football right now. He's been accurate, deadly accurate, actually. He's been smart, he's been decisive, he's been a leader. Simply put, he's had the hot hand. Time to stay consistent today. If Tannehill can limit the bad plays, and stay accurate with the medium range throws, this offense should move.

5. Bounce back: With all that being said, Tannehill will get hit today. I don't care how solid your offensive line has been, when you're playing this front four, it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. Tannehill can't get rattled if and when he does take a hard hit. I've seen him get a little anxious in the past when the sacks start to pile up- i.e.. Buffalo- and this offense cannot afford that today. Bounce back, and lead this team to a win.


PREDICTION

I expect this to be a relatively low scoring game today. I don't see any team getting into the 30's, and I expect special teams to playa factor. Going on the road, against the best defense in the league, coming off a bye nonetheless, is no easy task. However, something just tells this Dolphins team is hot right now. The defense is playing with a chip on their shoulders. Ryan Tannehill is playing lights out. And, to be honest, I don't buy the whole "team coming off a bye week having the advantage" wise tale.

Are they under dogs? Absolutely. Would a loss shock me? Not in the least bit. But something just tells me to go with the hotter hand right now. And that's the Miami Dolphins.

Pick: Dolphins 20 Lions 17


Alright, big couple of hours ahead of us. Come back in a bit for the full inactive list, including any last minute news. THEN, come back throughout the game and follow the live blog.

2.5 hours.

Week Ten in the NFL: Picks and predictions

20-6 over the past two weeks.... Enough said.


Last week's record: 10-2

Overall record: 84-41


Chiefs @ Bills: Any team that hasn’t thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver by week ten shouldn’t be a road favorite… that’s just one man’s opinion, though.

Pick: Bills 24 Chiefs 20

Cowboys @ Jaguars: Start Tony Romo, start Brandon Weeden, hell, start Quincy Carter even (wow, what a name drop), I don’t care. The fact of the matter is simple: Jaguars.

Pick: Cowboys 30 Jaguars 10

49ers @ Saints: Both these teams are 4-4…that’s why the NFL is great. Also, the Saints haven’t lost at home since 1947. I’m like 98% sure that’s accurate.

Pick: Saints 28 49ers 24

Titans @ Ravens: I read a report that said the Titans plan to play “angry” in the second half of the season. Um, ok. You do do, Tennessee. You do you.

Pick: Ravens 30 Titans 17

Steelers @ Jets: The Steelers are a 6.5 point favorite…. What? Hey Vegas, have you not watched Big Ben over the past two weeks? If, for some reason, he was the only Steelers player to make the trip, and had to play 1 versus 11 football, on both sides of the ball, for an entire 60 minutes… i’d still pick the Steelers to win the game. And I’d pick them to cover as well.

Pick: Steelers 38 Jets 9

Falcons @ Buccaneers: Does Lovie Smith flip a coin every week to decide his starting quarterback? Like, that’s the only possible explanation, right? Also… this game makes is yucky.

Pick: Falcons 23 Buccaneers 20

Broncos @ Raiders: Good lord.

Pick: Broncos 35 Raiders 14

Rams @ Cardinals: Carson Palmer>Austin Davis… Andre Ellington>Zac Stacy… Larry Fitzgerald>Brian Quick… I’ll let you play detective on this one.

Pick: Cardinals 27 Rams 24

Giants @ Seahawks: The Manning faces are going to be absolutely ridiculous during this one. Watching that offense is about as enjoyable as a prostate exam.

Pick: Seahawks 27 Giants 17

Bears @ Packers: Jay Cutler goes from a slightly above average quarterback to downright abysmal when he plays at Green Bay. Seriously, he’s been really, really bad there. Also, Aaron Rodgers is the man.

Pick: Packers 30 Bears 17

Panthers @ Eagles: HE’S BACK!!!!!! The man, the myth, and the legend have finally returned! I love me some Sanchise… it’s been way, way to long Mark. Welcome back to the show. Ps: Cam Newton’s competition % last week made me laugh out loud.  Double Ps: what a terrible game to cap off a terrible weekend for the NFL.

Pick: Eagles 27 Panthers 23 



Huge week for the Miami Dolphins. I said it earlier today and I'll say it again now.. These next two games, starting with tomorrow's, will define who these Miami Dolphins are, and just how far they're going.

Come back in the morning for all you pre-game coverage, including my pick. Then, coming back before the game for the full list of the inactives.

THEN come back throughout the game for updates on the live quarter by quarter, blog.

31 hours.

Next Four Days Will Provide Clearer Picture of Tannehill, Dolphins

Enjoy today. Savor today. Appreciate today.

That feeling you've had since Sunday evening? Remember it. Bask in it. Hold on to it for as long as you can.

Because when the clock strikes midnight, and today turns into tomorrow, everything changes.

Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins have been everywhere this week. From national television, to national sports talk radio, to features stories on front pages of the most well respected websites, everywhere you've turned the Dolphins have been there.

For the first time in a long time, this team is in the headlines for all the right reasons. No bullying scandals, no collapses, just a good, solid football team.

I must say, it's been a breath of fresh air. I've covered this team for a long time now, and nobody wants to see it end less then I do...

But make no mistake about it, starting tomorrow, and permeating all the way through to Thursday night, things are going to change. And come Friday morning, for better, or for worse, we will all have a much clearer, much more accurate picture of who these Miami Dolphins really are.

Going on the road, and playing the best defense in the league, coming off a bye week no less, is hard enough in itself. I believe this will be the greatest challenge these Dolphins have dealt with all year long.

But it doesn't stop there. In fact, it's only just the beginning. Four days later, Miami will host Buffalo on Thursday night in a game that will undoubtedly hold serious playoff ramifications. And let's not forget, these Dolphins haven't beaten the Bills since 2012.

Two games. Two fierce, unforgiving, top 10 defense. Two legitimate playoff contending teams.

Four days.

Now the real fun begins. Now we see if Ryan Tannehill has truly taken that next step. Now we see whether this defense is, what NFL Network called a "championship caliber" defense. Now we see just how good this offense line is.

Beating Oakland, and Chicago, and Jacksonville, and San Diego was all well and good. They were impressive wins. They were hard fought wins.

But they weren't playoff wins. Those wins didn't prove that this team is really ready to make a serious playoff run. Sorry, but they just didn't.

Oakland is winless. Chicago is a mess. Jacksonville has the most generous quarterback in the league. San Diego has the pass rush of a JV football team.

Nice wins? Sure. Absolutely. But playoff type wins? No. Not yet.

Beat the six win Detroit Lions on the road, then follow that up with a victory four days later against Buffalo, and then you're getting somewhere.

Put up a QB rating in the triple digits against these two defensive lines, and then you're in that next tier of quarterbacks.

Find a way to shut down Calvin Johnson, and Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate, and Matthew Stafford, and then you're truly a championship ready defense.

These next four days are exactly what those wins in September and October were for- to make this stretch meaningful. The third round of a major championship is referred to as "moving day." Its the day where the real, big time contenders separate from the pack and charge towards the front.

November, in the NFL, is the third round of a major championship.

Two games. Four days. With everything on the line. Moving day for the Miami Dolphins is about to begin.

Fall may be in the air today.

But starting tomorrow, winter is coming.

Tannehill the Key to Sunday's Game; other notes

I've looked at the Lions up and down, back and forth, in and out, all week long, and I've got to say, these two teams are EXTREMELY similar.

They both rely on a fierce, overwhelming pass rush. They both have explosive playmakers on offense. And they both are led by sometimes great, sometimes head-scratching quarterbacks.

Defensively, these two are damn near clones:

Miami ranks 3rd in total defense- 12th against the rush, and 2nd against the pass.

Detroit ranks 1st in total defense- 2nd against the rush and 5th against the pass.

The Dolphins are tied for 4th in total sacks with 25. The Lions have recorded 23 sacks, tied for 6th in the league.

The Miami secondary has recorded 9 interceptions. The Detroit secondary has also recorded 9 interceptions.

As you can see, these two defenses may very well cancel each other out on Sunday. So what happens then? Well, then you have to look at who has the better offense.

That's where the Miami Dolphins can win this football game.

The Dolphins offense ranks 11th in the league- 4th in rushing, and 19th in passing.

The Lions rank 20th in total offense- 30th in rushing, and 9th in passing.

I believe this game is going to go on the shoulders of Ryan Tannehill, and with the way the third year QB has played over the past five weeks, that shouldn't worry Dolphin fans. That should excite them.

Here are Tannehill's passer ratings since his near benching following week three:

4 Raiders 109.3 W, 38-14
6 Packers 83.3      L, 24-27
7 Bears 123.6 W, 27-14
8 Jaguars 73.3      W, 27-13
9 Chargers 125.6 W, 37-0

Over that time he's thrown 10 TD's to only 4 INT's, completed well over 60% of his passes, and had runs of over 40 yards each week.

Whether you choose to believe it or not, Ryan Tannehill is the better QB in this game. He's got the hot hand, folks. In fact, it's on fire- he's been the second best passer over the past month in the entire league, only behind Ben Roethlisberger.

Look, I realize the Lions own the 5th best pass defense in the league. But when you break it down, given the way Tannehill's been playing, I'd take my chances against that over their 2nd rated run defense, especially with a banged up Lamar Miller.

One more stat for you before I move on..

The Miami offensive line has given up 17 sacks this season, good for 12th in the league. The Detroit line has given up 24 sacks, which ranks them 27th.

The formula for the Dolphins in this one should be clear: Get after Matthew Stafford, and the statistics say you should, and ride Ryan Tannehill's hot right arm as much as you can. I understand the Dolphins like to run the football, and they're really, really good at it. But chances are it won't be there this week.

These two teams mirror each other in nearly every facet of the game.

If there is a loophole to be found, I believe it's in the passing game.

Time to see if the kid can stay hot.

OTHER NOTES

- The big piece of news out of Miami today had to do with 2015, as it was announced that not only will the Dolphins return to London next season, but it'll be against the New York Jets and will be considered a home game for the Dolphins.

I'm not happy about it, the Dolphins, I'm certain, are not happy about it, but I don't really care right now. It's 2014, and there's a HUGE game coming up. Who cares right now? That's something for another time, and another day.

- The second to final injury report came out today:

Dion Sims is the only player who did not participate in practice. He's still dealing with a toe injury and his status remains up in the air for Sunday's game.

Among the notables on the limited side were G Daryn Colledge and RB Lamar Miller. Colledge was listed as full participation yesterday and it seemed like he was ready to return this week after missing last week with back injury. However, it appears that he regressed today, as he was limited. If he can't go expect Dallas Thomas to once again fill in.

Miller is the more serious issue here. He is dealing with a shoulder sprain, and while he has said he'll play, one has to wonder how healthy he'll actually be. This is something to monitor closely. If Miller doesn't go, or, as I suspect, he goes but plays on a limited basis, look for Daniel Thomas and Damien Williams to split the snaps.

Three days.

Miller Practicing Despite Shoulder Sprain; other notes

The Miami Dolphins returned to the field today for the first time since Sunday's 37-0 decapitation of the San Diego Chargers.

Well, most of them did.

Jimmy Wilson did not participate in the media portion of practice. He played last week for the first time since the Green Bay game due to a lingering hamstring issue, and one has to wonder if he's still not 100% healthy. With Michael Thomas out for the rest of the season with a chest injury, options are suddenly thin at the nickel cornerback position if Wilson can't go on Sunday. Jamar Taylor and Will Davis would essentially be the last two standing.

Dion Sims also did not practice today. He missed Sunday's game with a toe injury, and was in a walking boot for most of last week. The boot was off today, but Sims was still on the sidelines.

As for those who did practice, there were two big names who participated.

The first was Lamar Miller. Miller suffered a separated shoulder during the third quarter of Sunday's game, and did not return. Doctors confirmed the separation, and Miller has been listed as day-to-day. However, the running back said he expects to play against Detroit, and backed that up with his participation in today's practice. He was clearly not 100%, but it does appear he'll play Sunday.

With Knowshon Moreno already done for the season, Lamar Miller is critical to this offense, so I'd hold my breath for a while here and pray he doesn't injure this thing any further. Daniel Thomas and Damien Williams will split time if Miller cannot go.

Chris McCain also returned to practice today after missing Sunday's game, as did Daryn Colledge. Colledge was back working with the first team offense.

One more notable absence today was head coach Joe Philbin, who is back at home in Massachusetts to be with his family following the death of his father. DC Kevin Coyle has assumed the leadership role until Philbin returns Wednesday night.