Week 13 In the NFL: picks and predictions

Tomorrow begins the final and most crucial month of this NFL season.

And your Miami Dolphins are on the brink of contention.

And destruction.

As I've told you all week, think of tomorrow's game as a playoff game.  Win, and next week matters.

Lose, and next year matters.

But this isn't the ONLY game around the league that means something!  Heck, most of them do!  And that's why this is the MOST wonderful time of the year, isn't it?

To the picks!


Last weeks record:  6-6-1

Overall record:  101-63-1


Tennessee @ Indianapolis:  The Colts have quietly started to fade as the season wears on, and it was no more evident than in last weeks drubbing in Arizona.  I wasn't high on them coming into the season, and I'm especially not high on them now.  However, I'm just not sold on the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Titans...yet.  Win tomorrow, and you've got my attention.  Until then, I'll take the Colts.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland: Wow, I can't think of a worse game to watch.  To all of those in the Jacksonville and Cleveland markets, I'm sorry in advance.  Browns in snoozer.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina:  How about those Buccaneers, huh?  Mike Glennon has been extremely impressive, and the future in Tampa looks much brighter than it did a month ago.  However, there isn't a hotter team right now than Carolina.  Give me the Panthers at home.

Chicago @ Minnesota:  Bad, bad loss for Chicago last week, and now they're looking up at the Lions in the North.  The Vikings looked better in Green Bay, and Christian Ponder was actually not terrible, so there's that.  I like the Bears in this one, but I'm not confident.

New England @ Houston:  The Texans are going for ten losses in a row.  TEN.  That would be impressive, wouldn't it?  I think they do it!  Give me the Pats, who historically own Houston.

Arizona @ Philadelphia:  Here's an under the radar football game.  Both teams are hot, both are smack dab in playoff races, and both have different head coaches and quarterbacks than they did this time a year ago.  However, that's where the similarities stop.  Arizona wins with defense.  Philadelphia wins with a high octane offense.  This is the matchup to watch tomorrow.  I like the Cardinals to go on the road and pull it out. But it's close.

Atlanta @ Buffalo:  I'm still shocked at how bad the Falcons are.  Seriously, wasn't this team, like, 30 seconds from the Super Bowl 11 months ago?  Unbelievable.  I like E.J. Manuel and the Bills at home.

St. Louis @ San Francisco:  I like that Rams defense.  They get after you, make plays, and put points on the scoreboard.  However, going into San Francisco is a tall order. They keep it close, but I like the 49ers in the end.

Cincinnati @ San Diego:  This is a big time game for the Chargers, especially after a big time win like they got last week in Kansas City.  I don't know why, but something tells me they're do for a bit of a letdown here.  The fact that Cincinnati is coming off a bye only strengthens that hunch.  I'm going with the Bengals.

Denver @ Kansas City:  Didn't we just do this?  Here's my thinking:  Kansas City losing three in a row is a lot more believable than Denver losing two in a row.  I'll go with Peyton and the Broncos.

N.Y. Giants @ Washington:  NBC couldn't flex to a better game here?  Really?   Both teams are mediocre, both are coming off losses, and both are on the fringe in the NFC East race.  I'll go with Eli and the Giants over RGIII, who looks like a shell of his former self...in his SECOND year.

New Orleans @ Seattle:  Is this an NFC Championship game prelude?  I'm going to pull an UPSET ALERT here, and go with the Saints.  I think that Rob Ryan defense will be too much for Russell Wilson, even in Seattle.


Big game tomorrow, folks.

Coverage starts tomorrow morning.  The live blog starts tomorrow afternoon.

Be there, or be square.  As they say..

Until then,

GO FINS

Ryan Tannehill the Better QB, And He MUST Show It; final injury report

Alright, we've reached the 24 hour mark, as the Fins and Jets will be kicking off their de-facto playoff game this time tomorrow afternoon.

I've laid out what needs to happen this weekend in order for Miami to regain the 6th and final wild card spot, so you should be well versed on what games to monitor tomorrow.

If you didn't read that post, I encourage you to go back and give it a look.

Now, to our game.

I'm going to be honest with you guys, I fully expect the Miami Dolphins to win this football game.

They've got the better quarterback.

They have better play makers on offense.

They have a very opportunistic defense.

They have the better punter, which, if you've seen a Mia/NYJ game, is huge.

They're just the better team, folks.  I watched the Jets play first hand last week, and it was brutal.  There is absolutely no reason why the Miami Dolphins shouldn't win this game handedly (although they won't, because, well it's the Dolphins).

Now, to the point of this post.  The quarterbacks.

There isn't even a comparison to be made between Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith, and Tannehill MUST prove this tomorrow.

Why?

Well, that Jets defense is pretty darn good against the run, and, uh, the Miami Dolphins aren't exactly running juggernauts.  Make no mistake about it, this game will absolutely fall on Ryan Tannehill's shoulders, ESPECIALLY with Daniel Thomas out.

I think he can have success.  While New York is 1st against the run, the secondary ranks 21st against the pass, giving up 250 yards a game though the air.  On top of that, CB Antonio Cromartie has been listed as questionable all week with a hip injury, and even if he does play, don't expect him to be near 100%.  Look for the Miami Dolphins to come out firing with Ryan Tannehill, and don't be surprised if he has success.

As for Geno Smith, it's no secret that the kid has been in a major slump as of late.  Over his past six games, Smith has thrown 10 interceptions and one touchdown pass.  In his last two games, Smith hasn't even completed 10 passes.  His play has been SO bad, Rex Ryan was even forced into telling the media that Smith will be the starter this week.

Miami MUST take advantage of having the better QB in this game.  This is a big one for Ryan Tannehill, folks.


INJURY REPORT


Here is the final injury report and game status for the Dolphins, courtesy of ESPN.com:

OUT: OT Jonathan Martin (absence), CB Dimitri Patterson (groin), RB Daniel Thomas (ankle), CB Jamar Taylor (hamstring)

QUESTIONABLE: S Chris Clemons (knee, hamstring)

PROBABLE: G Sam Brenner (knee), WR Rishard Matthews (back), LB Koa Misi (knee), WR Marlon Moore (hamstring), DL Jared Odrick (knee), RB Marcus Thigpen (wrist), S Jimmy Wilson (abdomen).

Expect Clemons to play, I'd be surprised if he didn't.

24 hours.

Picks and predictions coming up later.

  

Updated Wild Card Scenarios For Miami Dolphins

Just a quick update here as the Pittsburgh/Baltimore game just came to a conclusion.

With the Ravens winning, here are the scenarios for the Miami Dolphins to grab the sixth and final playoff spot with a win on Sunday.

A Miami win PLUS

Tennessee beats Indianapolis AND Cincinnati beats San Diego.

* The Dolphins would be ahead of both Baltimore and Tennessee based on best winning percentage in conference play.

OR

A Miami win PLUS

Indianapolis beats Tennessee AND San Diego beats Cincinnati.

* The Dolphins would be ahead of both San Diego and Baltimore based on winning percentage in conference play.

OR

A Miami win PLUS

Both San Diego AND Tennessee win.

* Miami wins tie break over Tennessee, San Diego and Baltimore based on best win percentage in conference games.


If Miami wins, but Tennessee and San Diego BOTH lose, then Baltimore would be ahead of Miami based on head to head record (Baltimore beat Miami 26-23 earlier this year).


Based on this, the three BIG games on Sunday in the AFC will take place in New York, Indianapolis, and San Diego.

Time to buckle up, folks.

Happy Thanksgiving!

A Thankful Dose Of Turkey Day Picks

 



Happy Thanksgiving!

Food is in the oven, pre-game shows are on the TV, and Fantasy lineups are quickly being submitted.

Here at The Dolphinsider, it's time for a special edition of Thanksgiving Day Picks, where we'll have a vested interest in tonight's Pittsburgh/Baltimore game.

As I told you yesterday, a Pittsburgh win tonight, coupled with a Miami win on Sunday, would vault the Fins into the 6th and final seed. 

To the picks:

Green Bay @ Detroit:  No Aaron Rodgers, no bueno for the Packers.  As for Detroit, look for a team playing with a chip on their shoulder after coming off an ugly, ugly loss to the two win Buccaneers.  If Matt Stafford can limit the turnovers, especially in the red zone, I like the Lions in this one.

Oakland @ Dallas:  Matt McGloin time!!!!  Tony Romo will get it done here, but it's closer than people think, especially with that Dallas "defense."  Give me the Cowboys.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore:  Both teams coming off big time wins, and both are smack dab in the AFC wild card race.  Think of this as a de-facto playoff game, as the loser will be a longshot in a muddled playoff race.  I like the Steelers here.  They're hot, they have the better QB, and, in the end, they have the better team.


Alright, go eat, watch football, and spend time with family you haven't seen in years!

Playoffs Begin Sunday For Miami Dolphins; other notes

Apologies for the lack of posts recently, it's the biggest, busiest travel week of the year and, unfortunately, I've experienced the horrors that come with that first hand.

However, amid my delayed flights, long car rides, and aborted landings, I began thinking about the Miami Dolphins and the playoff race they currently find themselves in.

Right now, they're tied with Pittsburgh, New York, Baltimore, San Diego, and Tennessee for the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC.  All six of those teams sit at 5-6 on the season.  All six are flawed and mediocre.  And none of those six seem to actually want this final playoff spot.

But that's where I got to thinking.

The Miami Dolphins are already in the playoffs, folks.

And their first game is Sunday.

Win, and you live to die another day.

Lose, and you're effectively eliminated.

The same goes for the Jets.  The same can be said for the Ravens and Steelers, who play each other tomorrow night.

Can't fall to 5-7 in this wild goose chase.  Can't do it.

The playoffs starts on Sunday for the Miami Dolphins.


WHO TO ROOT FOR

There are two different scenarios that puts Miami back in the lead for the 6th spot:

- If Miami and San Diego both win this weekend, then the Fins would currently grab the 6th seed, regardless of the outcome in the Pitt/Balt game.

- If Miami and Pittsburgh both win, then the Fins would take the 6th seed, therefore setting up a HUGE game next week.


OTHER NOTES

- Mike Pouncey is practicing more this week, and said he expects to play on Sunday.

- "He's a smart guy. He talks a lot.  He's going to try to get in your head so you just got to make plays and shut him up. Shut him up early, I think it'll be a long day for him." - Mike Wallace talking about Jets CB Antonio Cromartie.

- RB Daniel Thomas' season is in jeapordy after he tore a ligament in his ankle during Sunday's loss to Carolina.  He could be back in the next couple weeks, but that's a long shot.  It appears Marcus Thigpen and rookie Mike Gillislee will fill in for Thomas behind Lamar Miller.

- CB Dimitri Patterson, who missed Sunday's game, is practicing on a limited basis this week.  His status is up in the air right now.  Nolan Carroll played a fine game against Carolina, and should have little trouble against a, uh, less than superior Jets passing game.


Thanksgiving Edition of Picks and Predictions coming up tomorrow!

Four. Days.

Dolphins Blow Ten Point Lead, Fall To Panthers 20-16

Like so many Miami losses, this one stings.

Badly.

They were up 16-6 at halftime. And lost.

They were up by three on a fourth and ten desperation play by Carolina.

And lost.

They were down by four in the final seconds and had Mike Wallace at the goal line, 60 yards down field.

Wallace dropped it. And Miami lost.

They had it. They dominated this game on both sides of the ball.

Ryan Tannehill out dueled Superman.

Mike Wallace out dueled the entire Carolina secondary.

Brent Grimes shut down Steve Smith.

And Miami still found a way to lose.

The Fins now drop to 5-6 on the season, and fall into a tie with, well, everybody for the 6th and final playoff spot.

A win would've put Miami in sole possession with 5 games to play.

The Jets are up next. The Steelers are after that.

Two games that will make or break Miami's season.

This team.

Dolphins lead Panthers 16-13 heading to fourth quarter

Another game, another fourth quarter nail biter for the Miami Dolphins.

Carolina scored on their first possession to close the gap to 3.

Tannehill OVERthrew Mike Wallace for a sure TD.

Dolphins have the ball as we speak inside Carolina territory.

Can this team hold on? 

Here we go.

Inspired Dolphins lead Panthers 16-6 at half

You're watching an inspired Miami Dolphins team today.

The defense has been exceptional, picking off Cam Newton, sacking Cam Newton, and holding CAM NEWTON to 100 yards passing on 19 attempts.

The special teams unit blocked a Carolina FG. As I told you earlier, special teams MUST make plays today to win.

They have.

Now to the offense. Or should I say the Mike Wallace.

The embattled receiver has caught two long passes for 53 and 57 yards, with the first resulting in a TD. Ryan Tannehill continues to underthrow Wallace, but he's made up for both today.

Speaking of Tannehill, he's been solid today, going 12-19 for 203 yards, a TD and INT.

The half ended on a sour note.

On third and 4 from the Carolina 6 yard line, Tannehill hit Matthews in the endzone before Luke Kuechly ILLEGALLY hit Matthews in the head. 

A flag was thrown ONLY to be picked up seconds later. No penalty was called. Mii kicked a FG. Should have been first and goal from the 1-yard line.

To make matters worse, the Miami defense let up a 30 yard pass with 8 seconds left that put Carolina in FG range. That cannot happen against good teams.

To the third.

Buckle up.

Dolphins lead Panthers 7-3 after first quarter

Very entertaining first quarter.

Following a tipped pass Ryan Tannehill INT, the Dolphins special teams blocked the Carolina FG.

After another three and out by Miami, and a Panthers FG, Tannehill hit Mike Wallace on a rollout 53 YD TD pass.

Defense is playing exceptionally well, pressuring Cam Newton on multiple occasions.

Offense has done enough SO FAR.

To the second.

Patterson, Pouncey OUT; full list of inactives as Fins, Panthers near kickoff

Dimitri Patterson will NOT play today.  Mike Pouncey will NOT play today.

Those are two big losses for the Miami Dolphins.  Nolan Carroll and Sam Brenner will start in their place.

Here are the inactives for Miami (yes, it's a picture.  I'm lazy, deal with it):

Fins are in all white.  Shocker, I know.

Kickoff is little over an hour away!

Live blog starts after the first quarter.

See you then.

GO FINS 

Gameday: Keys To A Dolphins Win PLUS Prediction

Gameday is finally here, as the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers are a little over 3 hours away from kicking things off down in South Florida.

This will be a HUGE challenge today for the Fins, as Carolina is the hottest team in the league right now, winning SIX straight games, including Monday night's thriller over New England.

As I've told you all week, this season has come down to six games for the Miami Dolphins.

Game one is today.

To the keys:


1. Don't wait around.  This Dolphins team has made a bad habit of getting off to slow starts.  They did it against Tampa, Buffalo, Baltimore, and New Orleans-- which were all losses.  Come out firing today against a hot Carolina team and establish momentum early on.  Get the crowd involved, rattle Cam Newton, and act like a perennial playoff team.

2. Make a play on defense, special teams.  For the Fins to win today, they're going to have to put up around 30 points, something they haven't done all year long.  So how do they do that?  Get some help from another unit!  Someone MUST step up defensively today and make one of those game changing plays the really good teams make.  Think Reshad Jones against Baltimore.  IT can't just stop there.  Marcus Thigpen, this is for YOU.  Make a play today in the return game, it's been far too long since we've seen you do so.  Getting points from other units will be HUGE if the Fins are to win.

3. Contain Superman.  Why is this such a bad matchup for Miami?  Well, they don't exactly do great against mobile, athletic QB's like Cam Newton.  Never have.  It will be CRUCIAL today for this defense to find a way to keep the big guy in the pocket and not allow him to win this game with his feet.  Put a spy on him, keep him at bay, and make him beat your good secondary, not your poor run defense.


PREDICTION

This is a bad matchup for Miami.  Does that mean they'll lose?  Not necessarily. Carolina is ripe for a letdown today, especially after a big time win like they had Monday night. Many also consider this a trap game for the Panthers, as they could find themselves looking ahead to New Orleans.  With all that being said, I just can't see Miami winning today if both these teams play to their potential, because Carolina is just the better team. It'll take a really bad game from the Panthers, or a perfect game from Miami for the Fins to win, and I just don't see it.

Final: Carolina 28 Miami 20


Come back right before kickoff for any last minute news, including the inactives.

And, as always, follow the quarter by quarter blog beginning AFTER the first quarter today!

Three hours.

GO FINS

Week 12 in the NFL: picks and predictions

This NFL season has come down to six weeks for the Miami Dolphins.

Hard to believe that there's really only six games left.  This season has gone by faster than any season I can ever remember.  But don't get sad JUST YET!  We still have PLENTY of football left, folks.

Let's just hope it extends into January.

To the picks.


Last weeks record: 11-3

Overall record: 95-57


Pittsburgh @ Cleveland:  Give credit to the Browns, they just won't seem to go away this year.  Despite losing not one, but two quarterbacks, Cleveland has remained in the AFC wildcard race.  However, I think that ends tomorrow.  Give me Big Ben and the Steelers on the road.

Tampa Bay @ Detroit:  They're talking Super Bowl in Tampa!!!  Two straight wins, and strong play from rookie QB Mike Glennon may have temporarily saved Greg Schiano's job... Until it all comes crumbling back down tomorrow.  Give me the Lions at home.

Minnesota @ Green Bay:  Yikes.  Christian Ponder vs. Scott Tolzien doesn't exactly jump off the page, does it?  This one will come down to who wants it more, and who still has something left to play for.  I like the Packers in both those situations.

Jacksonville @ Houston:  Still don't quite understand why Gary Kubiak benched Case Keenum last week...at home...only to bring fan favorite Matt Shaub back in...and still lose.  Case will be back this week, and he'll put the Texans in the win column.

N.Y. Jets @ Baltimore:  Well, Geno Smith can't possibly have a worse game, can he? That Jets defense will keep them in it, especially against an inept offense like Baltimore's, but in the end, how can you pick New York?  Give me the Ravens.

San Diego @ Kansas City:  Both teams coming off frustrating losses here.  I like that Kansas City defense to shut down Philip Rivers through the air, and put him on his back in the pocket.  Could be a long day for the Alabamian.  Give me the Chiefs.

Chicago @ St. Louis:  Who would have thought two months ago that this matchup would feature Kellen Clemons against Josh McCown?  That St. Louis defense is good, and headed in the right direction, however, Chicago just has too much to play for here.  Give me the Bears in a close one.

Indianapolis @ Arizona:  This is a good game, folks.  You wouldn't think it at first, but many don't realize how sneaky good these Cardinals are.  In-fact, I think they'll set out tomorrow just to prove how good they are.  I like Arizona here, especially against an Indianapolis team without Reggie Wayne.  Cardinals in a good one.

Tennessee @ Oakland:  The winner remains in the wild card hunt.  The loser is just about dead.  Give me the Raiders to pull it off at home.

Dallas @ N.Y. Giants:  The Giants are hot right now, and have pulled right back into the NFC East chase.  Dallas is coming off a bye, and they needed it after that beat down in New Orleans.  So who wins?  I have no earthly idea.  I'm a Cowboys softy, so I'll go with them.  But I'm not confident.

Denver @ New England:  The thing that concerns me here is the weather.  Game time temperatures will be in the teens tomorrow night, with winds around 25 MPH.  That's terrifying.  Historically Tom Brady owns Peyton Manning in these conditions. HOWEVER, I think this is a different Peyton Manning this season, and I like the Broncos to find a way to get it done on Sunday night.  Gulp.

San Francisco @ Washington:  The Redskins are terrible.  They shouldn't be, but they are.  RGIII is being questioned, Mike Shanahan is being questioned, the secondary is abysmal.  Not good.  49ers get it done.


Big time game tomorrow, folks.  Pre-game coverage starts in the morning, live blog starts in the afternoon.

See you then!

GO FINS

 

Dolfan Viewer Guide To Week 12: Who To Root For

Alright, as you should know by now, ESPECIALLY if you've read this blog, the Miami Dolphins are in the drivers seat for the final AFC wild card spot.

They sit tied with the Jets as of today, with two games remaining against their division rival.

HOWEVER, this doesn't mean you shouldn't be rooting for them tomorrow.

In-fact, Miami Dolphin fans SHOULD want the New York Jets to pull it out against the Baltimore Ravens.

Seriously.

Why?  Well, take a look at my week 12 viewer guide for you Dolfans.  Who to watch, who to root for, and what it all means.


NEW YORK JETS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

As I just said, it's in the Dolphins best interest for their bitter rivals to win tomorrow. Baltimore has already beaten Miami, which means they own the tiebreaker at the end of the season if those two should find themselves in that position.

A Baltimore loss, coupled with a Miami win, would effectively give the Fins a two game lead over the Super Bowl champs with five games to play.  When you don't have the tiebreaker, that's huge.

Now, a case CAN be made to root for the Ravens.

Their schedule is much tougher down the stretch compared to the Jets (Baltimore still has to play Detroit, Cincinnati, and New England.  The only team New York plays that's over .500 right now is Carolina).

A Jets loss and a Miami win puts the Fins in the outright lead for the 6th spot.

And, well, it's the Jets.

HOWEVER, ask yourself this:

Who are you MORE concerned with?  Geno Smith, or the defending champs who already have the tiebreaker over you?  


PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Miami beat the Browns in week one, so any tiebreaker would go to the Fins.  Two weeks from tomorrow, Pittsburgh will host Miami in a huge game with major implications going forward.  This one's easy:  Root for a Cleveland win.  They're not a real threat to Miami, and putting as much distance as possible between the Steelers is key for the Fins.

TENNESSEE @ OAKLAND

This may come as a shock to most, but the Oakland Raiders currently hold the 7th seed in the AFC, one seed behind the 6th and final playoff spot.  However, how much of a threat are the Raiders?  IF you look at their upcoming schedule, I think you'd agree that they're really not.

@ Dallas

@ N.Y. Jets

vs Kansas City

@ San Diego

vs Denver

I can see one win in there, MAYBE two.  Regardless, it seems that Oakland should fade away in the coming weeks.

As for Tennessee, while their schedule isn't quite as intimidating, it will still pose major problems for a team without their starting QB the rest of the way.  Following this game, the Titans will travel to Indianapolis and Denver in back to back weeks, only to come home to host an under the radar Arizona team.

So who do you root for here?  I'd go with Oakland.  Let them win this week, knock Tennessee out of it, and look for both to fade away by December.

SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY

This one's easy.  Kansas City has a playoff spot locked down.  San Diego is hanging on by a thread.  Root for the Chiefs to bury the Chargers once and for all tomorrow.


Now, obviously this all looks MUCH better with a Miami win, something that will be a TREMENDOUS challenge.  As always, for that prediction, you'll have to come back tomorrow!

Picks and predictions coming up later.

ONE. DAY.

Fate Of Joe Philbin, Ryan Tannehill To Be Determined In Final Six Games

Throw out everything you've seen so far.

Forget the close wins, the heartbreaking losses, the shades of greatness, and the moments of agony.

Heck, for the next six weeks, put aside the bullying scandal as well, as hard as that may be.

Because from here on out, none of that matters.  It's a clean slate for the Miami Dolphins, for Joe Philbin, and for Ryan Tannehill.  Those two, a combined 12-14 together, may as well be 0-0 as of today.

Their fates, their legacies, will be determined over the final six games of this bizarre, roller coaster of a season.  Those two control their own destiny, as do, effectively, the Miami Dolphins.

Finish strong and make the playoffs.

Or stumble to the finish line, miss the dance for the fifth straight season, and all but sign the divorce papers.

Those are the ONLY two options these two have.

Last year they were given a reprieve.  Philbin was a rookie head coach.  Tannehill was a rookie QB.  And both were fighting a losing battle given the lack of talent around them.

But not this year.  The $200 milion dollar offseason spending spree made sure of that.

This year, it's playoffs, or bust.  Especially given the position they're in.

An impressive win against San Diego, coupled with a Jets implosion in upstate New York, has given the Miami Dolphins the upper hand in a mediocre, topsy-turvy AFC wild card race.

Just think about that for a second.  After all the turmoil off the field, and a four game skid on it, the Miami Dolphins control their own destiny the rest of the way.

On a ship headed towards playoff island, filled with eight other teams, Joe Philbin and Ryan Tannehill are your captains right now.

Finish 4-2 down the stretch, and you're headed to either Cincinnati or Indianapolis.

Finish 2-4 and you're the Titanic.

All Aboard!

That's what this season has boiled down to for the Miami Dolphins.  A season that started with such optimism, such anticipation, has come down to six games.

Will Ryan Tannehill seize the moment and put an end to the seemingly endless search for a franchise quarterback in Miami?

Will Joe Philbin rally the troops, after everything that's happened, and cement his place on the Miami sidelines for the foreseeable future?

Or will both crumble down the stretch, like so many QB-HC marriages of Dolphins past have?

Because, lets face it, this is it, Dol-fans.  The stage is set, the prize is ripe for Miami's taking.  If not now, this year, then when?

Too harsh?  Too dire?  Ask yourself this:

If the first two dates with somebody suck, would you go on a third?  At that point you're just forcing something that simply isn't meant to be.  They may be good people, but if it doesn't work out in the beginning, chances are it's heading towards a disastrous end.

So what awaits the Miami Dolphins at the end of this season?

Paradise, or an iceberg?

A third date, or another visit to Match.com?

It's all up to Joe Philbin, and Ryan Tannehill.  Fates will be determined, legacies, good or bad, will be written.  And it all starts Sunday.

Alright, I'm out of analogies.

Let's just play some football.

All Aboard!  (Alright, one more).

Victory Monday In Miami: Day After Analysis, The Fallout, and What They're Saying

Yesterday was a travel day for me, so I apologize for the lack of posts following the HUGE 20-16 win for the Miami Dolphins.

I did watch/listen to the entire game, and after some analysis, I do have a few takeaways:

- As I told you all of last week, there IS reason for optimism for these Miami Dolphins, despite a week of scandal talk, public humiliation, and a loss to the previously winless Buccaneers.  Why should you have been optimistic?  Well, as I said, a win against San Diego, coupled with a Jets loss would vault Miami into a 6th place tie with New York for the final wild card spot.

So what happened?  Miami won, the Jets lost, and all of a sudden the Miami Dolphins control their own destiny for the final six weeks of the season.

- I thought Ryan Tannehill played one of his better games yesterday.  He finished 22-35, 268 yards, a TD and an INT.  From what I saw, Tannehill only had three bad throws on the night:  The interception where he simply didn't see CB Johnny Patrick underneath, the under-throw down the field to Mike Wallace that would have been a sure TD, and a poor sideline pass to Brian Hartline on the final drive of the game that would of given Miami a first down at their own 40.

Other than that, I thought the kid played well.  He used his feet more, which he needs to be doing, distributed the ball extremely well (four different receivers had 4+ catches), and kept the chains moving all night long (only one three and out).  Does he have things to work on?  ABSOLUTELY.  He MUST figure out how to throw a long ball.  He MUST learn how to extend plays.  But in a must win game, I thought his play was solid.

- Good rebound game for a rushing attack coming off an embarrassing TWO YARD performance last week.  Daniel Thomas had his best game of the year, gaining 57 yards on 10 carries with a TD.  But it was the way he ran that really made the difference. Rarely was Thomas taken down at initial contact, and his ability to break tackles and turn two yard gains into seven yard gains was HUGE.  This offense will only be successful in short third down situations, and Thomas was money when it came to that yesterday.

- How about that patchwork offensive line.  Without Mike Pouncey, Richie Incognito, and Jonathan Martin, the protection yesterday, in both the run and pass game, was very solid.  Yes, Tannehill was sacked four times (although the last "sack" was really just Tannehill running out of bounds), but they didn't come at costly times, and they were spread out.

For a line featuring Sam Brenner, Tyson Clabo, Nate Garner, and John Jerry to put up a solid game yesterday, under the dire circumstances, is a testament to the resiliency within the Miami locker room.  Good work.

- Up and down day for Brian Hartline, who recorded 5 catches for 65 yards, but also had a couple rare drops.  He did, however, turn a 5 yard out pass into an 18 yard gain late in the game, which was even more crucial because he stayed in bounds, taking time off the clock on the final drive.

- How about Charles Clay.  Who would of thought three months ago that losing Dustin Keller would be so insignificant?  Clay had a monster game yesterday, catching 6 passing for 90 yards, including a highlight reel 39 yard TD in which he broke two tackles, and barreled over two defenders en route to the end zone.  Clay has become a huge playmaker this season, and has blossomed into a top tier TE in this league.

- Brent Grimes was absolutely the steal of free agency this season, and continued to show that yesterday.  He picked off Philip Rivers in the first quarter (his 3rd of the season), and batted away the final pass of the game in the end zone.  Grimes is a true shut down corner, and is heading for a big pay day this March.

- He may have been quiet for most of the day, but when it came down to crunch time, Cameron Wake, as he always does, showed us why he's one of the best defensive ends in the league.  The All-Pro sacked Philip Rivers on the Chargers final drive yesterday, forcing them to use their final time out and derail, for a moment at least, any momentum they were picking up.  That's an over looked play because San Diego continued to drive into Miami territory after that, but without that last timeout, they came up just short.

- Caleb Sturgis continues to bounce back nicely after his midseason slump, as he hit two more FG's yesterday.  The rookie has shown poise.

- I really liked Mike Sherman's play calling on the final offensive possession.  Tannehill and company took over at their own five yard line with a little under four minutes to play. Instead of just running the football and giving it back to San Diego, Tannehill came out firing, hitting Brian Hartline for 15 yards, and Rishard Matthews for 13 yards.  Yes, Miami punted, but they reversed the field while also taking time off the clock.  Give credit to Sherman.


WHAT THEY'RE SAYING

Joe Philbin, Mike Sherman, and Kevin Coyle all spoke today.  Here are some highlights:

- "They're in charge of the review process. ... We're going to fully cooperate." - Joe Philbin on the investigation.

- "We're sticking to the schedule. We'll be fine."- Philbin on the player interviews being conducted this week.

- Philbin on the Panthers:  "As hot of a team as there is in the league."

- "We're very fortunate to have a guy like Nate Garner."- Philbin on how Garner can play three different positions on the line.

- Philbin: "We've been in more four or less games than anyone in football over the last two years.... Every snap is important"

- Philbin on Clabo: "The guy is a pro ... he didn't radically change fundamentals. He's been a little more detailed in preparation."

- "He's a young player. I think he has some promise," Mike Sherman said of Sam Brenner.

- Sherman on Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller: "I look at both of those guys as starters. You kind of just go with the hot hand."

- "Sometimes you're aggressive and it works. Sometimes you're aggressive and it doesn't."- Mike Sherman.

- Sherman on Mike Wallace:  "Had a tremendous ballgame ... Changed how they played us and gave us opportunities on runs and whatnot."

- "He doesn't sweat things very much, and that's a credit to him," Sherman said of Ryan Tannehill.

- "I don't think it is going to have much of an impact," Kevin Coyle said of the NFL's investigation being a distraction this week.

- Coyle on Oliver Vernon: "Olivier has really stepped up his game."

- "There is not a team on the schedule we're not capable of beating. I think we've demonstrated that."- Kevin Coyle.

- Coyle on Newton: "He's a rare, rare athlete."

- Kevin Coyle on the final six weeks: "I think we're going to come out and play our best football over the last part of the season."


More to come.

Patterson, Brenner to start as Fins and Chargers near kickoff; inactives

The good news? CB Dimitri Patterson is active and will start today. Patterson leads the team with 4 INT's, but has missed multiple games this year with a groin injury.

The bad news? That make shift offensive line is the textbook definition of makeshift today.

Practice squad call up Sam Brenner will start today. Nate Garner will play center for the first time in 4 years. 

Rookie Dallas Thomas and former first round pick Danny Watkins are active but not starting.

Here are the other inactives:

C Mike Pouncey, DT Isaako Aaitui, RB Mike Gillisslee, QB Pat Devlin, OL David Arkin, CB Will Davis, OT Jonathan Martin.

The Miami offensive line will look like this:

LT - McKinnie; LG - Brenner; C - Garner; RG - Jerry; RT - Clabo

Fins in all white.

"Fireland" banner's ready to go.

Play ball!

(No live blog today)

Game Day: Three Matchups Miami MUST Win PLUS Prediction





Big time game today, folks.  You know what's a stake, so do the Fins, and so do the Chargers.  Expect all hands on deck from both sidelines today, and expect this one to come down to the wire.

I do have an early concern, however, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported early this morning that Center Mike Pouncey will NOT play today after dealing with kidney and gull bladder issues all week long. 

It was originally speculated that Pouncey, the team's best lineman, would play.  However, that changed at some point last night/this morning.

So, that means that the Miami offensive line will be without Pouncey, Incognito, and Martin today. 

Sound terrifying?  IT is.  Expect Dallas Thomas or Danny Watkins to start today.  A more definitive answer will be coming soon.


Now, yesterday I told you about two matchups that Miami must exploit today.  Here they are again:


Dolphins passing (21st) vs. Chargers pass defense (27th):  This is where the Miami Dolphins can have success tomorrow, BUT the game plan must be tailored correctly.  If I'm Mike Sherman, I'm thinking pass first, run second, because that San Diego secondary is extremely suspect this year.  This season, opponents are completing nearly 70% of their passes against the Charger secondary, with 14 TD's and only 4 INT's.  The combined passer rating in 9 games?  104.3.  Take advantage of this, early, often, and all day long. 

One more thing:  That San Diego pass rush?  Not good.  They rank 20th in sacks this season with 22, and they've only recorded TWO in the last two games.  This is the matchup Miami MUST take advantage of tomorrow.

Chargers red zone offense (22nd) vs. Dolphins red zone defense (10th):  The San Diego offense is among the best in the league, ranking 7th in total offense, and 4th in passing offense.  HOWEVER, they do struggle in one specific area:  Red zone scoring.  They only get into the end zone 51% of the time when they get inside the 20 yard line, which puts them in the bottom half of the league behind teams like St. Louis, Minnesota, and Tennessee.  This was especially costly two weeks ago in Washington, where Mike McCoy's unit failed to punch it in for the go ahead TD at the end of the game after having a first and goal from the ONE YARD LINE.  They would settle for  FG and eventually lose in OT. 

Adversely, the Miami defense, while having its fair share of struggles this year, has NOT struggled in the red zone.  Opponents are only scoring a TD 51% of the time against the Fins when in the red zone, good for 10th best in the league, and it's kept them in every game (New Orleans excluded) this season.  This was especially apparent last week, when Tampa Bay was driving early in the game, already up 7-0.  They took it down, inside the Miami 20, looking to take a commanding two TD lead, but the defense, as it has most of the year, stood tall, holding them only to a FG. 

After a Miami safety, Tampa took over again up 12-0 and looking to take an even more commanding three TD lead.  However, the Miami defense once again held them to a FG, and kept the game within manageable reach.  If you remember, the Fins actually rattled off 19 straight points to take the lead after that.

Now, here's one more matchup that I believe the Fins MUST take advantage of today if they are to win:


The Dolphins pass rush (11th) vs. the San Diego pass blocking (5th):  Philip Rivers has been extremely comfortable inside the pocket this season, only being sacked 16 times on the year.  However, the Miami Dolphins may catch a break today.  Starting tackle King Dunlap will not play today due to a neck injury that held him out of practice all week.  Along with that, center Nick Hardwick is deemed questionable with another neck injury.  This is an offensive line that's already a bit thin, and while D.J. Fluker will play today, I believe they could be  vulnerable bunch.

Especially going up against one of the better defensive lines in the league in the Miami Dolphins.  Jared Odrick has played at an extremely high level this season, as has Randy Starks, and those two, combined with Cameron Wake, could very well have huge success against a patch work line like San Diego's.

Expect DC Kevin Coyle to throw blitzes at this line all day, and with key players either hurt or out, expect it to work.


PREDICTION

I've gone back and forth on this all week long.  The optimist inside me wants to pick Miami.  He wants to believe that this team still has a lot to play for, and, deep down, they really are a good team.  But the other side of me knows how bad they can look at times.  He knows they're now down THREE starters on the offensive line, and could be starting a rookie today.  He also knows that, despite what they say, the drama over the last two weeks has affected this team, no matter what they say.

So what do I do?  I'm going to give these guys ONE LAST CHANCE.  My patience is wearing thin, but I believe this is a good matchup for the Miami Dolphins, and I believe they can pull it off and take control of the wild card race.  Gulp.

Final: Chargers 23 Dolphins 24


There will be NO live blog today, but come back in an hour or so to check in on any last minute updates, including the inactives for today's game.

GO FINS

Week 11 in the NFL: picks and predictions

On a trip with no wifi.

What's that mean?

Lightning round baby! Let's do it.

Last weeks record: 6-7

Overall record: 84-54

Buffalo

Chicago 

Cincinnati 

Philadelphia 

Detroit 

Tampa Bay

Arizona

Houston 

New Orleans

New York Giants

Seattle

Denver 

New England

I'll have all your pre-game coverage, including my pick, tomorrow morning as the Fins and Chargers are less than 24 hours away from kicking things off in Miami.

Until then..

Go Fins!

Wallace, Pouncey Expected to Play; Two Matchups Miami MUST Exploit

 



As I've told you throughout the week, center Mike Pouncey and WR Mike Wallace have been listed as questionable for tomorrow's game for an illness (Pouncey), and a hamstring issue (Wallace).

Well, it appears both will be good to go, barring some sort of setback before 4:05 tomorrow afternoon.  This is huge for the Fins, especially in an 'all hands on deck' game like this one.

And yes, I'll say this one more time, this game is a virtual playoff game, folks.  The loser drops out of the playoff race.  The winner is alive and well.

In-fact, a Dolphins win, coupled with a Jets loss, puts Miami in the FINAL PLAYOFF spot.  Yes.  Read that again.  While everybody has all but written off the Fins, if that scenario plays out tomorrow then your Miami Dolphins will be in control going forward.


HOW DO THEY MATCHUP?

Lets look how these two teams matchup, because, after some research, I believe there are a two key areas Miami MUST be weary of they are to win tomorrow.

Dolphins passing (21st) vs. Chargers pass defense (27th):  This is where the Miami Dolphins can have success tomorrow, BUT the game plan must be tailored correctly.  If I'm Mike Sherman, I'm thinking pass first, run second, because that San Diego secondary is extremely suspect this year.  This season, opponents are completing nearly 70% of their passes against the Charger secondary, with 14 TD's and only 4 INT's.  The combined passer rating in 9 games?  104.3.  Take advantage of this, early, often, and all day long. 

One more thing:  That San Diego pass rush?  Not good.  They rank 20th in sacks this season with 22, and they've only recorded TWO in the last two games.  This is the matchup Miami MUST take advantage of tomorrow.

Chargers red zone offense (22nd) vs. Dolphins red zone defense (10th):  The San Diego offense is among the best in the league, ranking 7th in total offense, and 4th in passing offense.  HOWEVER, they do struggle in one specific area:  Red zone scoring.  They only get into the end zone 51% of the time when they get inside the 20 yard line, which puts them in the bottom half of the league behind teams like St. Louis, Minnesota, and Tennessee.  This was especially costly two weeks ago in Washington, where Mike McCoy's unit failed to punch it in for the go ahead TD at the end of the game after having a first and goal from the ONE YARD LINE.  They would settle for  FG and eventually lose in OT. 

Adversely, the Miami defense, while having its fair share of struggles this year, has NOT struggled in the red zone.  Opponents are only scoring a TD 51% of the time against the Fins when in the red zone, good for 10th best in the league, and it's kept them in every game (New Orleans excluded) this season.  This was especially apparent last week, when Tampa Bay was driving early in the game, already up 7-0.  They took it down, inside the Miami 20, looking to take a commanding two TD lead, but the defense, as it has most of the year, stood tall, holding them only to a FG. 

After a Miami safety, Tampa took over again up 12-0 and looking to take an even more commanding three TD lead.  However, the Miami defense once again held them to a FG, and kept the game within manageable reach.  If you remember, the Fins actually rattled off 19 straight points to take the lead after that.

Holding that prolific San Diego offense to FG's, rather than TD's, could very well be the difference in a do or die game tomorrow.

These are two matchups Miami MUST exploit tomorrow.

Picks and predictions coming up later.

One. Day.

   

Message to Dolfans: Don't jump ship quite yet; other notes

Alright.

I've taken some time over the past few days to sit back, regroup, and try to find something, anything to pick myself up in the wake of a disastrous week for the Miami Dolphins.

Starting with the turmoil surrounding the team, being the laughing stock of the league and a national punchline, and ending with an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Buccaneers, things have been looking pretty, uh, scarce for this once 3-0 team. 

HOWEVER, don't jump ship just yet. Trust me, I've thought about it too. To lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on a national stage, when you have SO MUCH more to play for, is nothing short of humiliating.

But, while that loss was bad, it wasn't crippling. 

Miami still sits in the 7th spot in the AFC, one game out of the 6th and final playoff spot, which is currently held by the New York Jets.

This is where there is the potential for optimism.

Miami still plays the Jets TWICE, with the final game coming at home in the final week of the season.

The team right behind the Dolphins, San Diego, just happens to be in town this weekend. 

This is where that "crippling" loss would happen. 

This is a MUST WIN game, folks, for many reasons.

Number one, this team just needs a win. They need something to build on, something to show them that there is, in fact, light at the end of the tunnel after the past two weeks.

Number two, they would move a full game up on in the standings, which is especially huge because of tie breakers if it comes to that.

And number three, the Carolina Panthers come to town next weekend. They're arguably the hottest team in the NFL and present a huge matchup problem for the Miami Dolphins. Going into that game coming off a win means everything for this team. 

If you're keeping track, then you also know why this weekend is a must win for the Miami Dolphins. 

With the Jets coming up twice, and also a trip to Pittsburgh (another wild card contender) mixed in, a win on Sunday could very well mean the Miami Dolphins control their own destiny going forward.

Yes. You read that right. With all that's happened, a win on Sunday and this team has a very alive pulse once again.

Optimistic? Sure. But after a few days off, that's the route I've chosen. 

Even after all these years, I guess I'll just never learn. 

OTHER NEWS

It's actually been a relatively quiet week for the Fins.

- The big news today, on the football front, is the status of WR Mike Wallace, who was listed on the imaginary injury report (the team doesn't practice on Thursday, but still had to release in injury report) as limited with a hamstring injury.

The final report comes out tomorrow, so we'll know more then, but as of right now expect Wallace to play.

- The rest of the injury report looks like this: 

S Clemons (knee), S Reshad Jones (groin), LB Misi (knee), CB Dimitri Patterson (groin), WR Mike Wallace (hamstring) all limited.

- OL Will Yeatman reportedly suffered a major knee injury yesterday during practice, some are even suspecting a torn ACL. Nothing has been confirmed by the Dolphins yet, but this doesn't look good.

- On the non-football front, the big news today was Richie Incognito, who filed a grievance against the Dolphins for lost wages during his suspension.

If Incognito loses the Dolphins can suspend him through Week 13 

(Dec. 1), then must either reinstate or cut him. 

3 days.

Dolphins suffer 22-19 back breaking loss to Buccaneers

Embarrassing.

How do you lose to a winless team?

You run for TWO yards on the night.

You give up your only two sacks of the night on back to back plays with the game on the line.

You give up over 150 rushing yards on defense.

You commit bonehead penalties on crucial downs, like Philip Wheeler did.

You kick a FG instead of score a TD when you get the ball off an INT at the SEVEN yard line.

You come out of the gate trailing 15-0 before you can even blink.

That's how.

Ryan Tannehill played fine, he wasn't the problem.  He threw an INT on the final offensive play just trying to make something happen.

Mike Wallace was absent all night.

The run defense was beyond atrocious.  The pass defense did OK.

The pressure on Mike Glennon simply wasn't good enough.

The offensive line was GREAT until the final, most crucial drive of the night, where they gave up back to back sacks to put Miami in a 3rd and 28 situation.

Luckily, this loss isn't a back breaker for the Miami Dolphins.  In a football sense, at least.

They sit at 4-5 with every other team in the AFC excluding the New York Jets.

But in every other way, with all the off the field issues, this loss is demoralizing for the Miami Dolphins.

And I, for one, don't know if they can come back from it.

The Chargers are up next.

Dolphins lead Bucs 19-15 after third quarter

It's Rishard Matthews' world tonight, and we're just living in it.

11 catches, 120 yards, and two TD's.  The second came on a 19 yard swing pass from Tannehill to put Miami up 16-15.  The two point conversion would come up short.

The Dolphins offense has come back with a vengeance tonight, especially in the passing game.  Well, only in the passing game.  The run game?  Eh, better luck next week.

Defensively, Miami has stuffed the running game, and intercepted Mike Glennon, which led to a Caleb Sturgis FG.

The Fins have rattled off 19 straight points.

Can they hold on?

To the fourth.

Late drive cuts Tampa lead to 15-7 at halftime

It could be, and probably should be, a lot worse.

After 28 minutes of arguably the worst football I've ever seen the Miami Dolphins play, Ryan Tannehill led a 9 play, 90 yard drive ending in a Rishard Matthews TD.  Tannehill was 8-8 on the drive, and ended the half hitting his last 12.

Matthews torched the Tampa defense, catching 8 passes for 77 yards, and the TD.

Tannehill finished the first half 15-19, 121 yards, and a TD.

The running game?  Well, it's been beyond brutal.

7 runs.  0 yards. 

Yes.  ZERO.

Defensively, the Miami D stiffened up after allowing an opening drive TD, followed by a FG.  The lack of pressure on Glennon has been concerning, as has the run defense, and both things MUST change moving forward.

Miami will get the ball to start.  Can they build on the momentum?

Remember, their worst quarter this season has been the third.

Lets go their now.

Bucs lead Fins 10-0 after first quarter

Well, I've seen better quarters.

Tampa Bay is running, passing, and basically doing whatever they want against the Miami Dolphins.

Including a TD pass to a left tackle.  Yes, a LEFT TACKLE.

The Dolphin defense has been bullied on both the offensive and defensive lines, and have had no answer so far for Tampa.

Ryan Tannehill has completed only one pass.  Charles Clay has dropped a pass.  Mike Pouncey committed a crucial personal foul.  Lamar Miller has had no lanes.  Mike James, until he got hurt, had lanes big enough for a semi truck.

A disastrous start for Miami.  They're fortunate to only be down 10-0.

To the second.

Fins, Bucs ready to cap off week 10; the inactives

Amid a Stephen Ross press conference, there is STILL a football game to be played.  I promise!

Here are the inactives for Miami:

OL Jonathan Martin,

OL Dallas Thomas

QB Pat Devlin

RB Mike Gillislee

LB Koa Misi

CB Dimitri Patterson

OL David Arkin


Jason Trusnik will start for Koa Misi, and Nolan Carroll will start for Dimitri Patterson.

Fins in, of course, all white.  Bucs in red and gold.

Live blog starts after the first quarter, see you there!

GO FINS

Gameday: Five keys to a Dolphins win PLUS prediction

(courtesy of Dolphins.com)

It's FINALLY game day (night), as your Miami Dolphins are just hours away from playing an actual NFL game.  In-fact, it's their first since Halloween night.

Unfortunately, it feels like it's been much, much longer since Miami has played a game.

With all the drama surrounding the Fins over the last two weeks, the actual football side of things, you know, the one that matters, has been completely lost in translation.

If you remember, the last time your Fins were on the field, they saved their season with a huge OT win against the Cincinnati Bengals, thanks in large part to a Cam Wake safety-sack of Andy Dalton.

Tonight is about as big of a game for the Fins as they could play.  The entire world has been trashing this team for two weeks now.  Their leadership has been questioned, their ethics have been questioned, and players in the locker room have been able to do NOTHING about it.

Until tonight.


To the keys:


1.  Embrace the drama.  Sound weird?  Relax.  I'm not condoning what allegedly went on within the Dolphins locker room.  However, I expect this team to use the whole "us against the world" mantra to its fullest.  Players have vocally expressed their disdain for how their names have gotten tossed around over the past few weeks, and tonight, as I just said, they can finally let it out.  Expect this team to come out guns a blazin', from the first play, to the last.

2.  Attack the rookie.  Yes, Mike Glennon has played well, and yes, he looked very much the part against an extremely good defense last week in Seattle.  HOWEVER, he's still a rookie, and he's still making only his 6th career start.  That Miami defense line, led by Cam Wake, must put the rookie under constant pressure, all night, if this defense is to have success.  Force bad throws, force mistakes, and take advantage of a young, inexperienced quarterback.

3.  Continue running the football.  Last week, Mike Sherman finally put together a good, solid game plan for 60 minutes.  He ran the ball, and reaped the benefits.  Lamar Miller had a career game, Daniel Thomas was solid, and the game, for once, wasn't completely put on Ryan Tannehill's shoulders.  And you saw the results!  No turnovers from Tannehill, no bad decisions, and the sacks were cut in half.  Run the ball tonight against a middle of the road run defense, and stick with it.

4.  Opportunistic defense.  This unit made some HUGE plays last week.  Dimitri Patterson had an INT, Brent Grimes took one to the house, Cameron Wake had a strip sack, AND Dannell Ellerbe plucked one out of the air.  The defense bailed this team out time and time again, and should see similar results tonight against Mike Glennon. However, CB Dimitri Patterson will NOT play tonight, so Nolan Carroll must step up, fill the void, and continue making plays.

5.  Learn from the OT pass interference.  This play constantly gets over looked, but it was HUGE.  With Miami pinned deep, and momentum sliding over to Cincinnati's sideline, Ryan Tannehill rolled out on a play-action fake, and heaved one deep to a streaking Mike Wallace.  Terrence Newman was forced to tackle Wallace, as he was easily beat, and the result was a huge PI call that completely switched field position. Although Miami would punt, the play reversed field and pinned Cincinnati deep in their own territory.  Three plays later Miami won.  Use Wallace tonight, take some shots, and see the results.  My guess is they'll be good.


PREDICTION

Listen, there's clearly a lot more at play tonight then the game itself.  Miami is the laughing stock of the league, and a national punchline.  What many people forget is they're in prime position for a post season run.  A win tonight puts them in a tie for the sixth and final wild card spot with the Jets, and with a lot of football left to play, that's huge.  Call me an optimist, call me a homer, call me a sucker, but something tells me that this group is resilient, they're ticked off, and they're ready to regain some league wide respect.  I'll take the Fins, on the road, amid the drama and controversy, to pull this one off.

Final: Dolphins 31 Buccaneers 20


Alright, that'll do it for now.  Kickoff is about three hours away, but if you need something to hold you over, go back and check out the week that was for the Miami Dolphins, including:

MY take on what's at stake in the Incognito/Martin controversy

Exclusive video of Richie Incognito in the LAX airport

And, despite their good position, how the Miami Dolphins are being written off in the AFC playoff picture


AFTER checking those out, come back right before kickoff for any last minute news, including the inactives for both teams.

And, as always, follow the quarter by quarter blog of tonight's game!

Until then

GO FINS

Despite Good Position, Miami Dolphins An After Thought In Playoff Race

Yesterday was a good day for the Miami Dolphins.  Probably the best day the franchise has seen in a while.

The San Diego Chargers lost their second in a row to drop them to 4-5.

The Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans were upset victims, losing games to the winless Jaguars and the Tavon Austin led Rams.

The Bills lost.  The Raiders lost.  The Bengals lost.  The Jets, Patriots, and Browns stood stagnant at home, neither gaining or losing ground.

If you're keeping count, that's six teams currently competing with Miami for the sixth and final playoff spot who either lost or didn't play yesterday.

On top of that, losses by Cincinnati and Indianapolis brought Miami to within one game of them if they win tonight, with the Dolphins already having beaten both earlier this season.

What does all of this mean?  A win tonight by the Miami Dolphins would put them in a tie with New York for the final wild card spot.  With seven games to play.  With two of those coming against those very Jets.

The playoffs are a very real possibility in Miami right now.  That January pipe dream is alive and well as of today, and your Miami Dolphins can kick it into high gear with a win tonight.  All is well, right?

Wrong.  Very, very wrong.

If you watch TV, listen to the radio, or read the headlines, you'd think the Miami Dolphins were already eliminated from postseason contention.

You'd think they were the winless team playing tonight.  You'd think THEY were the underdogs tonight.

It seems to me that all of this off field drama has clouded league-wide judgement of the product Miami puts on the field.

Is it great?  No.

Is it a Super Bowl contender?  Probably not.

But is it playoff worthy?  Does it still possess a pretty decent QB?  A running back gaining nearly five yards a carry?  An upper echelon receiving core, a front four in the top half of the league in sacks, and a secondary led by a top five CB?

Wait, so you're telling me that Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, Brian Hartline, Mike Wallace, Cameron Wake, Randy Starks, Jared Odrick, Paul Soliai, AND Brent Grimes are still playing?

Then yes, it's ABSOLUTELY playoff worthy.

And yes, this team should ABSOLUTELY beat the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers tonight.

Yet, on a national landscape, this game is already over.  The drama of the past week will be too much.  There's no leadership, no control, no direction.

On ESPN, you had Mark Brunell not only saying Miami would lose, but that Mike Glennon would out perform Ryan Tannehill.

On NFL Network, you had a collective agreement from Steve Mariucci, Heath Evans, and Darren Sharper that this season was unsalvageable, and, starting tonight, the Miami Dolphins would begin their full blown implosion.

Between ESPN.com, and CBSSports.com, you had a whopping 16 analysts pick the 0-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win tonight's game.

Only five picked the 4-4 Miami Dolphins.

Now, before I start getting hate mail from loyal Tampa Bay fan, yes, I realize you're better than your record says you are.  Yes, I saw you almost beat Seattle last week at their place.  And yes, you almost beat the Saints earlier this season, a team who blew Miami out of the water last month.

But, on the field, the Miami Dolphins are the better team.  You are what your record says you are, and right now that logic favors Miami.

But let's put this game tonight aside, because that's not really my point here.

My point is this:

With half a season to play, the Miami Dolphins are smack dab in the middle of a playoff race.  And with all the losses yesterday, and a win tonight, this team could very well be in the drivers seat for January football not 12 hours from now.

But you wouldn't even know it after the week that was.

Right now, the off the field Miami Dolphins are all people can talk, read, and write about.

But the on the field Dolphins?  The actual product?

They're nothing but an afterthought.



[My Gameday keys to the game, and prediction, will be coming up later, so check back periodically throughout the day]

Incognito Sit Down Leads To Some Clarity, More Confusion

Well, with what seems to have become a daily occurrence, the Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito story took another turn today when Incognito sat down with Fox Sports' Jay Glazer for an exclusive one on one interview.

Didn't catch it?  Here are the highlights:

- A week before everything went down, Richie Incognito claimed that he received a text from Martin saying "I will murder your whole family."  Incognito said the text was all in fun, and that's how he and Martin communicated.  Jay Glazer was given the actual text, so it's real.

- Incognito: Martin never showed signs football or locker room was getting to him

- When shown the transcript of the voice mail he left, Incognito said he was embarrassed by it, it was vulgar, and it wasn't right.

- Incognito: When words put in writing, it looks bad

- "People don't know how Jon and I communicate to one another." - Richie Incognito defending his voicemail

- Incognito: "I'm not a racist. To judge me by that one word is wrong."

- Incognito said the n-word is "thrown around a lot" and "it's a word I've heard Jon use a lot."

- Incognito: This isn't an issue about bullying. This is an issue of mine and Jon's relationship where I've taken stuff too far.

- Incognito: I didn't know it was hurting him. i can't sit here and tell you who overreacted I can just be accountable for my actions

- "My actions were from a place of love."- Incognito

- "As the leader, as his best friend on the team, that's what has me miffed … I never saw it coming."

- When it's on the screen it sounds like I'm a racist pig, it sounds like I'm a meat head. It sounds like a lot of things I'm not.

- Incognito: "I'm proud of my guys for having my back and telling the truth."

- Incognito: When all this stuff got going, bullying got attached, my name, Martin said it's not coming from me.

- Incognito to Glazer:   I'll give you my phone. We can walk through these texts. I'll show you frame work of our friendship.

- He did in-fact give him his phone.  There were 1,142 texts between Jon Martin and Incognito, including texts after Martin left team.

- Here's a text from Martin to Incognito last Friday:

Some clarity.  More confusion.  What we need now is to hear Jonathan Martin's side of the story BEFORE we can form any sort of opinion.  Whether or not we hear from him is anybody's guess.

One more note.  Michael Silver told NFL Network's "NFL GameDay Morning" that coach Joe Philibin and general manager Jeff Ireland aren't expected to make it through this unscathed.

"Unlike that scandal (the New Orleans Saints bounty scandal), where ownership stood resolutely behind Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis, Jeff Ireland, the general manager, and head coach, Joe Philbin, in league circles, are not expected to survive this," Silver said. "Jeff Ireland already has the reputation in league circles for being a guy who 'we can't believe he still has his job.' They're 4-4, but there's clearly a void here. Expect somebody to pay."

Take this with a grain of salt, folks.  There is still a lot of story here, and I don't expect anything to happen until after the investigation is complete.  Still, something that I've been saying for a while now.  People will lose their jobs because of this.  We just don't know who, or how many...yet.

More to come.

Week 10 In the NFL: Picks and predictions

Quiet week, huh?  I almost forgot that there's still actual football to be played this season.  In-fact, there's a whole lot of football left to be played, and the slate of games this weekend could provide a fun couple of hours.  Lets get to it.

Last week's record: 6-7

Overall record: 78-47


Cincinnati @ Baltimore:  Two teams coming off tough, tough losses.  In a game of who wants it more, I like the Ravens to stay in the playoff mix with a big time home win.

Detroit @ Chicago:  One of the marquee matchups this week, and I don't think it'll disappoint.  Jay Cutler is set to return, and I think he leads the Bears to a huge division win, but it's close.

Philadelphia @ Green Bay:  Hope Eddie Lacy's hungry tomorrow, because he'll be fed an awful lot with Seneca Wallace manning the ship for a while.  Meanwhile, Nick Foles' jersey is next to Peyton Manning's in Canton.  Yeah, we all saw that coming.  Give me the Eagles.

St. Louis @ Indianapolis:  That Rams defense will keep them in a lot of games, but, unfortunately, Kellen Clemons will put them right back out of them.  Give me the Colts.

Seattle @ Atlanta:  Two months ago this looked like a dandy.  Now, it looks like a snoozer.  I'll take the Seahawks.

Oakland @ N.Y. Giants:  This could be the game that New York offense breaks through, did you see the Oakland defense last week?  Yikes.  Giants win.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee:  Nope, I refuse.  Titans.

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh:  This one could be fun to watch, especially with the return of E.J. Manual.  The kid could have a big day against an awful Pittsburgh defense, but still, I like the Steelers at home.

Carolina @ San Francisco:  How about those Panthers, huh?  I liked them before the season started, and I really like them now.  However, going on the road against a San Francisco team off a bye will be a tall order, even for superman.  Give me the 49ers in a good one.

Houston @ Arizona:  Case!!!  The kid went out last week, torched the Indianapolis secondary, and reminded everyone that Andre Johnson is still a pretty good receiver. He'll struggle some this week against a strong Arizona defense, but my gut tells me he'll pull it out.  Give me the Texans.

Denver @ San Diego:  UPSET ALERT.  Yes, Denver is coming off a bye.  And yes, they still have Peyton Manning.  But something just tells me that Philip Rivers and that San Diego offense wants this one more.  I'll take the Chargers in a high scoring affair.

Dallas @ New Orleans:  Tony Romo and the Cowboys went into the Superdome a couple years ago and defeated the then unbeaten Saints.  I don't see them doing that here, especially with New Orleans coming off an ugly, ugly loss.  Give me the Saints.


Alright, that'll do it for tonight.  Check back tomorrow for any updates on the Miami Dolphins (hopefully only football related) as they get ready for a primetime battle against the winless Buccaneers.

And, as always, come back Monday for pre-game coverage, my prediction, and, of course, the live blog of the game.

Until then

GO FINS

Incognito On The Move: The Latest From Miami (with video); Locker Room United Or Divided?; Other Notes

As much as it pains me to continue reporting on this, it just won't go away.  And I don't expect it to for a long, long time.

Legal teams have been formed, finger pointing has begun, and the battle is, unfortunately, set to begin for the Miami Dolphins.

Here's the very latest:

- According to reports, Richie Incognito flew to Los Angelas today.  Why?  Nobody knows.  But, it should be mentioned, that Jonathan Martin is out there as well. Coincidence?  Reconciliation?  Revenge?  Who knows, but I'm sure we'll find out.

- As most of you know, Jonathan Martin's attorney, David Cornwell, released the following statement last night:


Jonathan Martin’s toughness is not at issue. Jonathan has started every game with the Miami Dolphins since he was drafted in 2012. At Stanford, he was the anchor for Jim Harbaugh’s “smash mouth” brand of football and he protected Andrew Luck’s blind side.

The issue is Jonathan’s treatment by his teammates.  Jonathan endured harassment that went far beyond the traditional locker room hazing.  For the entire season-and-a-half that he was with the Dolphins, he attempted to befriend the same teammates who subjected him to the abuse with the hope that doing so would end the harassment.  This is a textbook reaction of victims of bullying.  Despite these efforts, the taunting continued.  Beyond the well-publicized voice mail with its racial epithet, Jonathan endured a malicious physical attack on him by a teammate, and daily vulgar comments such as the quote at the bottom.  These facts are not in dispute.

Eventually, Jonathan made a difficult choice. Despite his love for football, Jonathan left the Dolphins. Jonathan looks forward to getting back to playing football. In the meantime, he will cooperate fully with the NFL investigation.

Quote from teammate: “We are going to run train on your sister. . . . She loves me. I am going to f–k her without a condom and c– in her c—.”

Obviously, that last sentence is the one everyone is talking about today, and, if true, could be a devastating blow to the Miami Dolphins.  As I've said before, coaches will be fired when this is all said and done.  Players will be fired when this is all said and done. GM's could very well be fired when this is all said and done.  That quote may just be the beginning.

- This from NFL.com:

NFL Media columnist Michael Silver has been told Incognito's camp has evidence that suggests a "back-and-forth communication between the two men that would paint them more as friends who said things to each other." Silver called the exchange "mutually explosive."

"(Martin's) days with the Dolphins clearly are over," Silver said. "This is the point of no return. Richie Incognito's camp believes they have some material to release that will cast this in a different context. ... All kinds of Dolphins offensive linemen and players are freaking out. This is war."

Clearly, there is a lot of evidence from both sides here, and we haven't even seen most of it yet.  Don't be surprised to see this end in court, with a bang.  As I've said, this is just getting started.

- Here is exclusive video of Channel 10's Ross Palombo following Incognito through LAX (I apologize for the size, that's the best we could get):

LOCKER ROOM UNITED

Many of you have seen the various interviews given by players following Wednesday's practice.  The notable ones included Brian Hartline, Tyson Clabo, and Ryan Tannehill.  Here's a little of what they had to say:

"This is the same guy that was laughing about this voice mail at one point in time, first of all," Hartline said of Martin. "Second of all, I believe that if you look through the whole voice mail, there's some things said that you probably shouldn't say in general, friends or not friends. But I know for a fact, that I've said things to my friends that I kind of wish I've never said to, either." -Brian Hartline

"I don't know why he's doing this ... this is ridiculous. What's (being) perceived is that Richie is this psychopath, racist maniac, right? And the reality is that Richie was a pretty good teammate, and that Richie and Jonathan Martin were friends, or appeared to be friends." -Tyson Clabo

"If you asked Jonathan Martin who his best friend is on this team two weeks ago, he'd say Richie Incognito.  (The) first guy to stand up for Jonathan when anything went down on the field -- any kind of tussle -- Richie was the first guy there. When they wanted to hang out outside of football, who was together? Richie and Jonathan. I'm not in those guys' shoes. I can't explain what's going on." -Ryan Tannehill

Now, many reports are out there calling this a revolt against Philbin.  That's wrong.  In-fact, NFL Network's Jeff Darlington has reported that Philbin told the team to speak up, and "stick up" for themselves when questioned.

To me, this is a DIRECT sign of things to come.  Watching this locker room over the past week, and listening to them talk, you can sense a newfound urgency in their voices that hasn't been there all season long.  Players are mad, fed up with the spotlight, and I expect them to use this as a rally cry going forward.

I won't give my prediction for Monday night yet, but I'll say this:  Expect a fired up group of guys for 60 minutes, and expect an "us against the world" mentality that you haven't seen from this team in a long, long time.  Bank on it.


OTHER NOTES

Now, to the actual football side of things.

- Former Fins WR Marlon Moore rejoined the team this week after a brief stint with the 49ers.  Moore reclaimed his old #14 jersey.  There is no word on whether he will be active on Monday night or not.

- And finally, the final injury report was released today:


OUT
T Jonathan Martin (illness)

DID NOT PRACTICE
LB Jelani Jenkins (foot)
LB Koa Misi (knee)

LIMITED
CB Dimitri Patterson (groin)
TE Dion Sims (toe)
K Caleb Sturgis (right groin)

FULL
CB Nolan Carroll (concussion)
S Chris Clemons (hamstring)
LB Dannell Ellerbe (calf)
G Nate Garner (knee)


Three Days.