Big time game today, folks. You know what's a stake, so do the Fins, and so do the Chargers. Expect all hands on deck from both sidelines today, and expect this one to come down to the wire.
I do have an early concern, however, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported early this morning that Center Mike Pouncey will NOT play today after dealing with kidney and gull bladder issues all week long.
It was originally speculated that Pouncey, the team's best lineman, would play. However, that changed at some point last night/this morning.
So, that means that the Miami offensive line will be without Pouncey, Incognito, and Martin today.
Sound terrifying? IT is. Expect Dallas Thomas or Danny Watkins to start today. A more definitive answer will be coming soon.
Now, yesterday I told you about two matchups that Miami must exploit today. Here they are again:
Dolphins passing (21st) vs. Chargers pass defense (27th): This is where the Miami Dolphins can have success tomorrow, BUT the game plan must be tailored correctly. If I'm Mike Sherman, I'm thinking pass first, run second, because that San Diego secondary is extremely suspect this year. This season, opponents are completing nearly 70% of their passes against the Charger secondary, with 14 TD's and only 4 INT's. The combined passer rating in 9 games? 104.3. Take advantage of this, early, often, and all day long.
One more thing: That San Diego pass rush? Not good. They rank 20th in sacks this season with 22, and they've only recorded TWO in the last two games. This is the matchup Miami MUST take advantage of tomorrow.
Chargers red zone offense (22nd) vs. Dolphins red zone defense (10th): The San Diego offense is among the best in the league, ranking 7th in total offense, and 4th in passing offense. HOWEVER, they do struggle in one specific area: Red zone scoring. They only get into the end zone 51% of the time when they get inside the 20 yard line, which puts them in the bottom half of the league behind teams like St. Louis, Minnesota, and Tennessee. This was especially costly two weeks ago in Washington, where Mike McCoy's unit failed to punch it in for the go ahead TD at the end of the game after having a first and goal from the ONE YARD LINE. They would settle for FG and eventually lose in OT.
Adversely, the Miami defense, while having its fair share of struggles this year, has NOT struggled in the red zone. Opponents are only scoring a TD 51% of the time against the Fins when in the red zone, good for 10th best in the league, and it's kept them in every game (New Orleans excluded) this season. This was especially apparent last week, when Tampa Bay was driving early in the game, already up 7-0. They took it down, inside the Miami 20, looking to take a commanding two TD lead, but the defense, as it has most of the year, stood tall, holding them only to a FG.
After a Miami safety, Tampa took over again up 12-0 and looking to take an even more commanding three TD lead. However, the Miami defense once again held them to a FG, and kept the game within manageable reach. If you remember, the Fins actually rattled off 19 straight points to take the lead after that.
Now, here's one more matchup that I believe the Fins MUST take advantage of today if they are to win:
The Dolphins pass rush (11th) vs. the San Diego pass blocking (5th): Philip Rivers has been extremely comfortable inside the pocket this season, only being sacked 16 times on the year. However, the Miami Dolphins may catch a break today. Starting tackle King Dunlap will not play today due to a neck injury that held him out of practice all week. Along with that, center Nick Hardwick is deemed questionable with another neck injury. This is an offensive line that's already a bit thin, and while D.J. Fluker will play today, I believe they could be vulnerable bunch.
Especially going up against one of the better defensive lines in the league in the Miami Dolphins. Jared Odrick has played at an extremely high level this season, as has Randy Starks, and those two, combined with Cameron Wake, could very well have huge success against a patch work line like San Diego's.
Expect DC Kevin Coyle to throw blitzes at this line all day, and with key players either hurt or out, expect it to work.
PREDICTION
I've gone back and forth on this all week long. The optimist inside me wants to pick Miami. He wants to believe that this team still has a lot to play for, and, deep down, they really are a good team. But the other side of me knows how bad they can look at times. He knows they're now down THREE starters on the offensive line, and could be starting a rookie today. He also knows that, despite what they say, the drama over the last two weeks has affected this team, no matter what they say.
So what do I do? I'm going to give these guys ONE LAST CHANCE. My patience is wearing thin, but I believe this is a good matchup for the Miami Dolphins, and I believe they can pull it off and take control of the wild card race. Gulp.
Final: Chargers 23 Dolphins 24
There will be NO live blog today, but come back in an hour or so to check in on any last minute updates, including the inactives for today's game.
GO FINS
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