Dolphins choke away playoff birth, lose to Jets 20-7

As I wrote in my column yesterday, a loss today simply meant the Miami Dolphins just weren't very good.

20-7.

Season over. Playoffs gone. And a disastrous beginning to the offseason.

Everything that had to happen, did.

Baltimore lost. Miami had a 7-0 lead against Geno Smith, at home, in a must win game.

And then they were out scored 20-0.

With everything on the line, the Miami Dolphins had a melt down of epic proportions.

Ryan Tannehill threw 3 INT's. He wasn't good enough.

The Dolphin defense was gashed on the ground.

They weren't good enough.

The play calling was an abomination.

Mike Sherman wasn't good enough.

When they established a run game, they passed. When the pass was working, they ran.

On 4th and inches, Sherman ran Charles Clay, instead of just running a sneak.

On third and three, after a sleu of big time runs, Sherman called a screen to Mike Wallace.

It was simply horrific.

Tannehill overthrew a Mike Wallace TD.

Wallace dropped a TD.

Rishard Matthews dropped a third down pass.

Geno Smith was barely touched.

Point the finger wherever you want, the bottom line is this:

In control of their own destiny, the Miami Dolphins lost back to back games to Thad Lewis, and Geno Smith.

They were not good enough this season.

And now, it's over.

Jets lead Dolphins 14-7 after third quarter

A Ryan Tannehill INT. A failed 4th down.

Just a disaster.

The Jets have the ball inside Miami territory. Cincinnati and Baltimore are tied.

It's not looking good.

Final quarter.

Bengals doing their part, but Fins trail Jets 14-7 at halftime

Well, Cincinnati is doing their part. They currently lead the Ravens 17-6 at halftime.

The Dolphins? Not so much.

A Rishard Matthews dropped third down pass led to a Miami punt.

11 plays later, Geno Smith ran it in with 3 seconds left to put the Jets up 14-7.

Defensively, Miami just can't seem to stop Smith. There has been little to no pressure on him, and he's found wide open receivers the entire game.

Offensively, Miami is killing themselves.

Charles Clay had a key drop. Matthews had the big one. Tannehill overthrew a wide open Mike Wallace.

It's been a struggle.

The lone TD on the day was a 5 yard pass to Wallace.

Brian Hartline left the game with a knee injury. His return is questionable.

Two quarters left.

To the third.

Dolphins, Jets scoreless; Ravens trail 7-6

Not a bad first quarter despite the score.

Miami has moved the football, mostly through the air, the problem has been sustaining drives, as they've stalled twice at midfield.

Brian Hartline had a big catch and run, but limped off the field. It looks like a knee injury. 

Defensively, the Dolphins have stopped the run and put pressure on Geno Smith.

Baltimore currently trails Cincinnati 7-6.

To the second.

Dolphins, Jets nearing finale kickoff; the inactives

They are just about an hour away from kickoff in Miami.

Here are the inactives:

Pat Devlin, Mike Gillislee, Will Davis, Jalil Brown, Danny Watkins, Dave Arkin and AJ Francis.

As expected, Daniel Thomas IS active.

Nate Garner will start over Sam Brenner at LG.

The Dolphins, I assume, will be in all white.

Live blog of BOTH this game and the Baltimore game will be going on throughout the day.

See you then.

Gameday: Five Keys For A Playoff Birth PLUS prediction

(Dolphins.com)

Well, judgement day is upon us, folks.

16 games, 161 days, 8 wins, and 7 losses have all come down to today.

Win, and get a tiny bit of help, and this WON'T be our last gameday of the year (technically, it will be regardless.  But you get the picture),

Lose, and the offseason will officially begin.

That, for one, makes me sick to my stomach.

Here are the keys.  Let's hope the Dolphins follow them better than they did last week.


1.  No more slow starts.  This one is absolutely imperative.  There is NO excuse for a slow start today.  None.  They did it last week, they did it two weeks ago, heck, I can't even remember the last time this team came out of the gates firing.  With everything on the line, and the crowd behind you, go out, take the lead, pile on, and don't look back. NO MORE SLOW STARTS!

2.  Keep Matt Moore on the sidelines.  How Ryan Tannehill made it through 57 sacks without leaving the game is beyond me.  It was only a matter of time until he didn't get up, and sack number 58 was it.  Fortunately for Miami, Tannehill exudes toughness, and will be fine to play today.  FOR NOW.  Keep the man upright and give him time to throw. Another performance like last week, and this game is over before it starts.

3.  Find a ground game.  How do you do that?  You RUN THE BALL.  The yards don't have to be pretty, but they MUST be effective today.  IF this offense cannot establish some sort of run game, one that, at the very least, keeps the defense guessing, then it will be a miserably long day for this unit.  I don't care who it is, but find the hot runner, give him the ball often, and grind out tough yards on the ground.  They did it the first time around, and MUST do it today.

4.  Stay on, and get off, the field.  This was an absolute back breaker last week.  Buffalo converted 7-19 third down opportunities.  That's 36%.  Miami converted 2-14.  That's 14%.  Where was the game lost last week?  Look no further than those stats alone.  If you cannot stay on the field, you're not going to win.  Plain and simple.  If you cannot get off the field, you're not going to win.  Third down conversions will be critical today.  Bank on it.

5.  Force Geno to be Geno.  In the first go around, the Miami Dolphins defense dominated Geno Smith. So much so that the rookie was benched in the second half. Force him to make plays today.  Take away the run game, and make the rookie QB beat you.  Do not allow him time to throw, do not give him the luxury of a running game. Force his hand, and he'll play right into yours.  He did it three weeks ago, and he can certainly do it again today.


PREDICTION

I've always said that the scariest team to play is one that has nothing to play for.  Well, if last week was any indication, that's a pretty accurate theory.  The Dolphins MUST match New York's intensity today. No, I shouldn't have to even say that given the stakes, but they didn't do it last week and it got ugly real fast.  RELISH THE MOMENT.  You're the better team, you're a win away from a possible postseason birth, and you're at home.  I just can't see these Dolphins, with all they've been through, come this far only to have Geno Smith end there playoff hopes....right?

Final: Jets 14 Dolphins 23


I will have live updates of the Baltimore/Cincinnati game throughout the day, both on here and on the Facebook page, so make sure to follow the live blog all game long.

And, before kickoff, make sure to come back for any last minute news, including the inactives.

The season finale is three hours away, folks.

Buckle up.

Season Finale Will Define Miami Dolphins

Do you remember how frustrating it used to be to watch Ross and Rachel go back and forth for years on Friends?

We all knew they were meant to be together, and we knew they'd end up together, but for 10 seasons that show refused to give in.

One season she loved him, but he was with someone.  The next season they finally got together, only to have it end with the infamous "WE WERE ON A BREAK" line Ross made classic throughout the series.

They had a baby together, lived together, even got married for a couple weeks!  But for 10 seasons, the writers did what great writers do:

Pull us in, raise our hopes, get us emotionally invested, and then stomp on our hearts in the most frustrating, tantalizing of ways.

Rinse. Wash. Repeat.

It was a vicious cycle that had us on the edge of our seats for 10 years.  It made for great television, but only because of how it ended.

Had Ross and Rachel not gotten together for good in the season finale, after 10 years of build up and tear down, then the entire show would have been a catastrophic failure.

It would have gone down as one of the worst endings to a series of all-time.  I mean, think about it, folks.

For how beloved Friends was, and still is, could you imagine how different it would be had the writers tanked the finale?

You can have great build up.  Seasons 1-9 can be really entertaining, but if you screw up the ending, everybody forgets how good the beginning was.

Vince Gilligan, the creator of one of the most brilliant, critically acclaimed shows of all-time (Breaking Bad, of course), faced this same conundrum earlier this year.  For five seasons, he gave us the most entertaining, heart stopping 60 minutes of the week every Sunday night.

He gave us 61 hours of some of, if not the best, TV ever to grace our screens.

But if hour 62 failed?

So would Vince Gilligan.  So would Breaking Bad.

You can have a great TV series (Dexter), but if you put up a stinker at the end (if you saw the finale, then there's no need to elaborate), then, fair or not, it wasn't a great series after all.

It's sort of like Lost, or The Sopranos.  They were really good.

But what's separating them from being Breaking Bad great?

The finales.  The endings.  The conclusions.

Their final moments defined what they were, and how they were remembered.

Tomorrow afternoon, the Miami Dolphins season finale will be airing live from South Florida.  The build up has been spectacular.  The stakes could not be higher.  The pressure has never been greater.

And when those 60 minutes are through, then, and only then, will we be able to truly judge this wildly entertaining season.

If Ryan Tannehill and Joe Philbin give us a great finale, then you have Breaking Bad.

If they give us a repeat of last week, then you have Dexter.

Fair or not, the Miami Dolphins will be judged on their final 60 minutes.  Everything before that, good or bad, will be disregarded.

That gripping episode in Pittsburgh?  Forgotten.

The dramatic conclusion to episode 14 against New England?  Irrelevant.

The strong, 3-0, opening act?  An afterthought.

If the Miami Dolphins cannot produce tomorrow, at home, against an inferior team, with everything on the line, then this simply wasn't a very good show.

Sure, it had its moments (OT win against Cincinnati).  Some of the characters were good (the progress of Ryan Tannehill).  But if the finale doesn't deliver, then the season as a whole will be remembered as a failure.

You can't put all this money into the production (over $200 million), give us some really great episodes (three straight wins in December), and then completely tank the ending, and expect viewers to come back next season.

This team has the chance to be Breaking Bad.  In-fact, I'm confident that IF they take care of business tomorrow afternoon, they'll be in the playoffs by tomorrow night.

It's all there for the taking.

But they also have the chance to be Dexter.  Or Lost.  Or The Sopranos.  Some really good shows, that gave us some really memorable moments, only to be remembered for what they weren't.

The build up has been great.  The first 16 episodes have been nothing short of thrilling.

Now it's time for the final act.

And it promises to define the 2013 Miami Dolphins.

   

Week 17 in the NFL: Picks and predictions

Well, another season has come and gone.  The fact that this will be the final set of weekly predictions for 2013 is unbelievable to me.  Wasn't it just July 21st?

It's my greatest hope that this blog will have AT LEAST one more week of meaningful football to cover, we'll know by this time tomorrow.  So, I'll be an optimist here and say, simply, this isn't goodbye, this is see you next week.

To the picks.


Last weeks record: 10-6

Overall record: 141-85-1


Carolina @ Atlanta:  Lets see here.  The Falcons are playing for nothing, the Panthers are playing for a first round bye.  Who should I pick?  I'll take the Panthers.

Houston @ Tennessee:  Literally couldn't care less.  Do you realize that the last time Houston won a game was WEEK 2.  That's impressive.  I'll take the Titans.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh:  They destroyed them last month on the road, and I think they destroy them here at home.  Give me the Steelers.

Washington @ NY Giants:  Well, this one looked a lot better four months ago, huh?  Giants.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati:  Doesn't get much bigger than this for Baltimore, and Miami, and San Diego, for that matter.  Cincinnati is coming off a dominating win, while the Ravens are coming off a debacle. Cincinnati is also 7-0 at home.  The Ravens have won two games on the road.  This matchup just favors the Bengals.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis:  Refer to first line of Hou/Ten.  Colts.

Detroit @ Minnesota:  It's kind of remarkable how the Lions couldn't win the NFC North this season.  I feel for you, Detroit fans.  I really do.  I like the Vikings here.

Green Bay @ Chicago:  Aaron Rodgers>Jay Cutler.  It really is that simple.  The Packers get it done on the road.

Buffalo @ New England:  Remember when the Dolphins played the Pats in the season finale last season?  Yeah, I see that same game here.  Give me the Patriots.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans:  No way the Saints lose three in a row.  Not at home, not with a playoff spot at stake.  Drew Brees, Sean Payton, and the who-dats get it done here.  Saints.

Denver @ Oakland:  Now its just time for Peyton to pad his stats.  Broncos.

San Francisco @ Arizona:  Really impressive win last week for the Arizona Cardinals.  They may not get in, but they certainly deserve it.  I like them here.  Bruce Arians deserves some serious coach of the year love.  Cardinals.

Kansas City @ San Diego:  Another monumental game for Miami and Baltimore, assuming both win early in the day.  I like the Chargers here. They beat Kansas City last month, on the road, and now they get to face their second team, at home.

St. Louis @ Seattle:  Give credit to the Rams, they're a tough out every week of the year.  Unfortunately for them, they're getting a Seattle team coming off a bad home loss. Yikes.  Give me the Seahawks.

Philadelphia @ Dallas:  Even with Tony Romo out, I expect this to be a good game. Don't be surprised to see Kyle Orton keep the Cowboys in this thing, maybe even pull it out.  However, he's fighting a losing battle with the defense.  Give me the Eagles to take the East.


Alright folks, that's it for now.

Come back in the morning for all your pre-game coverage, including my prediction as the Dolphins and Jets are just under 18 hours away from kicking things off.

Tomorrow afternoon, I'll have live updates of the Ravens game (and Chargers game, if necessary), along with the live blog of the Dolphins game.

Be sure to come back in the morning.  I'll even have a column posted for you with Breaking Bad, Friends, and the Miami Dolphins all on one page.  Can't miss that!

One. Day.

GO FINS

Final Dolfan Viewer Guide Of 2013: Down To Two

Alright folks, we've reached the final viewer guide of the season.  We started this about a month ago when the actual scoreboard watching began, and tomorrow will be no different.

In-fact, I advise Dolfans to have both the Miami game and the Baltimore game on side by side beginning at 1 pm tomorrow.  I'll be doing live blogs of both games.

To the final viewing guide of the season:


Baltimore @ Cincinnati (1 pm, CBS):  Pretty basic here.  A Miami win, and a Ravens loss, gives this blog one extra game to cover.  The Bengals are coming off a dominating win, while Baltimore is coming off an embarrassing loss.  Root for Cincinnati like you never have before.


Kansas City @ San Diego (4:25 pm, CBS):  If the Dolphins and Ravens win, then both will have vested, and I mean vested, interest in this game.  Assuming both win, then the Chargers will literally hold both teams season in their hands.  A win vaults Miami into the playoffs, while a loss puts the Ravens back in the dance.  San Diego beat Kansas City earlier this year, and Andy Reid will be resting his starters for a majority of the game, so this game will favor the Chargers.


Picks and predictions coming up later.

24 hours.

Four Dolphins Named To Pro Bowl; Jets Matchup All About The Run Game

(Dolphins.com)

For some reason, the NFL decided to announce this year's Pro Bowl roster at 9 pm tonight.  Don't know why, don't know the reasoning behind it, but hey, the NFL does what the NFL wants.

Representing your Miami Dolphins will be CB Brent Grimes (second), Cameron Wake (third), Mike Pouncey (first), and Brandon Fields (first).

Grimes has started all 15 games at cornerback and has recorded 55 tackles.  He leads the Dolphins with 15 passes defensed, and is tied for the team lead in interceptions with four, including one that he returned 94 yards for a touchdown.

Wake has as recorded 35 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 19 quarterback hits, eight tackles for a loss, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and one safety through 15 games.  He also missed a handful of games with a knee injury.

Pouncey  started at center in 13 games for the Dolphins in 2013, and is the first Dolphins center selected to the Pro Bowl since Tim Ruddy in 2000.


Fields is ranked second in the NFL in punt average (48.8 per punt), second in net average (42.8), third with 33 punts inside the 20-yard line and also recorded the third longest punt (74 yards last week in Buffalo) in the league during the 2013 season.

Miami and New England had four Pro Bowlers selected, Buffalo had three, and the Jets had none.

The only possible snub here would be Olivier Vernon, who leads the team with 11.5 sacks.  This is no surprise as Vernon isn't well known around the league, but if he continues with this production expect to see him in there next season.


IT'S ALL ABOUT THE RUN

We've reached the 48 hour mark, folks.  You're nervous, I'm nervous, anxiety fills the air. But, we still have to look at the numbers when it comes to this game, just like any other week.

So, where should we look when it comes to these two teams?

The run game.

I believe that the Dolphins will win, or lose, this game in this area, and this area alone.

Lets look at the defense first.

Against San Diego, they gave up 154 yards on the ground.  The Chargers rank 13th in the NFL in running the ball.

Against New England, they gave up 152 rushing yards.  The Patriots rank 12th.

Last week, they were gashed by the Bills for 204 yards.

This run defense, once ranked 3rd in the NFL (2011), has given up more than 130 yards on the ground nine times this season.

NINE!

They rank 25th in rush defense.  They're playing an offense ranked 6th in running the ball.

Can you guess the game plan for the Jets on Sunday?

Yes, this run defense better find a quick fix, or it could be a long, miserable day for the Miami Dolphins.

Now, the offense.

Let's start with last week.  They ran the ball 12 times.  They gained 14 yards, folks.

The longest run of the day?

THREE YARDS.

They couldn't run it against Baltimore, and lost.  They couldn't run it against Tampa Bay, and lost.  They couldn't run it against Carolina, and lost.

This offense ranks 26th in running the ball.

The Jets defense ranks 3rd.

Do you see the problem in this game yet?  Do you see why the Miami Dolphins will lose, if they do?

So, with all of this being said, how exactly did the Dolphins win the first meeting, besides the fact the Geno Smith was awful?

Let's look at it.

In that game, Mike Sherman stuck with the run, even though he had no business doing it.

Miami ran the ball 36 times, a season high, for 125 yards.  Not pretty, not flashy, but it kept the defense off balance, allowed Tannehill time to throw the ball (he was only sacked once), and had the Dolphins offense moving up and down the field all day long.

It also gave Miami the ball for 38 minutes, or nearly 70% of the game.

Run the ball, control the ball, keep the defense guessing.

The perfect formula.

How did the Dolphin defense do in that game?

They held the NFL's 6th ranked rushing attack to 99 yards on 22 carries.

One of their best performances of the season.

How these teams fair on Sunday will absolutely depend on the run game.  Everything is predicated off of it.

If Miami can run the ball, and sticks to it, everybody else reaps the benefits.

Ryan Tannehill doesn't get sacked 7 times.  The offensive line is praised.  Mike Wallace, Charles Clay, and Brian Hartline get to FEAST, much like they did in the first matchup.

If this team has a repeat performance from last week, well, then you might as well get Matt Moore ready, get Jeff Ireland's bags packed, and gear up for a long, brutal offseason.

Make no mistake about it.

The run game, on both sides of the ball, is EVERYTHING.

It's the season.  It's the playoffs.

48 hours.

Cromartie: We're The Better Team; Thomas Upgraded; Ross Speaks To Team; Other Notes

Lost in all the playoff talk, number crunching, and scenario chatter, is the fact that this game is still, first and foremost, a fierce, fierce rivalry game.

Well, in case you forgot, Jets CB Antonio Cromartie has just reminded you.  And the Dolphins.

Take a look:

"I felt like we were the better team then," Cromartie said. "Do I feel like we're a better team now? Yeah, we're running the ball better and we're playing the pass a whole lot better. I think the biggest thing for us is to put it all together and win a game on the road.

"This is our last game of the year.  We want to make sure it's their last game, too."

IF the Dolphins needed any more motivation for this Sunday's game, besides the fact that there season is literally on the line, then they just got it.  This is nothing new for Cromartie.  He's run his mouth his whole life, and, for the most part, he's got the play to back it up.

The matchup between him and Mike Wallace will be a fun one to watch.  Wallace got the better of him in their last meeting.


THOMAS IMPROVES

Had the Dolphins practiced yesterday, RB Daniel Thomas would not have participated, according to the injury report, due to the ankle injury he's been dealing with for the last month.

Well, according to today's injury report, Thomas improved to "limited participation" in this afternoon's practice.  Again, I expect Thomas to play, as he has for three weeks now.

Another name to keep on eye on is Brian Hartline, who's been limited all week after suffering a knee injury last week.  However, I expect him to be just fine come Sunday.

One more note:  Ryan Tannehill told the media his knee is "fine" today.  I'm sure it's not, but Tannehill will play on Sunday with little to no limitations.


ROSS ADDRESSES TEAM

Owner Stephen Ross was at the team's practice facility today, and, according to Joe Philbin, he told the players he has "a lot of faith and confidence in the guys" during a brief meeting he had with the team.

Ross knows this is a huge game for his team, and for him to come to Miami during the week (he usually spends the bulk of his weeks in New York City) is very telling.


WHAT THEY'RE SAYING

- "They are obviously playing better since we played them on Dec. 1st," Joe Philbin said of the Jets.

- "We need to go out there and play our best football game of the year. Everything else will take care of itself," Joe Philbin said of Sunday.

- Philbin: Sunday at 1pm we have to play our best game of the season.

- "We used a variety of snap counts and cadences in that game," Philbin on McKinnie's claims. "At times defenses time it up well."

- "We always have ability to change cadence," Ryan Tannehill said of the teams snap count.

- "It would be nice, obviously, but all we can control is this game," Tannehill on the playoffs. "This is going to be a motivated Jets team."

- Ryan Tannehill: "We know it's a big game. We're not stupid."

72 hours.

Merry Christmas, From Kansas City; Tannehill Good To Go; Thomas Questionable

First and foremost, Merry Christmas to all of our readers!

I decided to take two days off from the Miami Dolphins as I needed a mental break after the debacle that was Sunday afternoon.

It was nice, and very much needed.

HOWEVER, Christmas is just about over, and it's time to gear up for this playoff push that's about to come to a thrilling conclusion.

Speaking of the playoffs, Miami may be getting a HUGE gift from an unlikely source- Andy Reid.

According to sources, Reid is expected to rest his starters for a majority of Sunday's game against San Diego.

Why is this good for the Dolphins?

Well, a Miami win and either a Baltimore loss OR San Diego win gets the Fins into the playoffs.

So, if these reports are accurate, it would give Miami's playoff chances a HUGE boost.

Merry Christmas!

TANNEHILL READY TO GO, GRIMES AND CARROLL PROBABLE, THOMAS QUESTIONABLE

The Fins didn't practice today, but still released an injury report, which listed Ryan Tannehill (knee), Brent Grimes (groin), and Nolan Carroll (knee) all as probable for Sunday's game.

Obviously, this is good news. Tannehill has been wearing a sleeve on his leg all week, but has practiced at close to 100%.

RB Daniel Thomas is questionable with that ankle injury. I expect him to play.

The playoff push is in full swing. Don't miss ANY of the action, folks. 

Come back tomorrow, besides, it's the laziest day of the year.

Merry Christmas!

Week 17 playoff scenarios

I'll obviously elaborate on this more later on, but here's how the Miami Dolphins get in the playoffs next week:

Miami wins AND

Baltimore loses  

OR

Miami wins AND

Baltimore and San Diego win

That's it, I THINK.

In the first scenario, Miami would win the wild card outright over Baltimore (9-7 to 8-8).

In the second scenario, all three teams would be 9-7, with Miami winning the tiebreaker.

There is NOT a scenario in which the Dolphins lose but still get in.

Baltimore will be at Cincinnati, while San Diego will host Kansas City.

Miami is obviously hosting the Jets.

Another way to look at it is this:

The only way Miami doesn't make the playoffs, assuming they win, is if San Diego doesn't beat Kansas City.

As of today, somehow, someway, the Dolphins actually own the final playoff spot.

The loss today hurt, but it's by no means season ending.

More to come. 

Dolphins embarrassed in Buffalo, lose 19-0

I've got no words after this one.

In all my years of watching this team, I have never, ever seen such a poorly played game in my entire life.

Ryan Tannehill was a sitting duck today. He was sacked SEVEN times. 

He has been sacked 58 times this season. And yes, that's a franchise record.

He was also a wounded duck. After the 6th sack, Tannehill limped off the field with a knee injury.

Matt Moore would come in and throw an INT.

Tannehill returned the next series only to nearly get sacked again. Miami would go three and out and punt. Again. For the 10th time on the day.

It got so bad, Tannehill sat out the remaining two minutes. The kid took the beating of a lifetime.

The running game was a disaster. An absolute and utter disaster. 

Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas gained 14 yards today. 

14.

Defensively, it was a joke.

CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson gashed a Miami run defense that's been a HUGE disappointment this season.

Those two gained 205 yards on the day, and were literally the entire Buffalo offense.

There was no pash rush, the tackling was abysmal, and the third down defense was unbelievably bad.

Brian Hartline had a career worst day. Charles Clay was shut down. Mike Wallace was contained. 

The Miami Dolphins, in control of their own destiny, lost to Thad Lewis for the SECOND time this season.

They no longer control their destiny, obviously.

In fact, with Cincinnati winning, the Dolphins are a Ravens win and San Diego loss away from being eliminated from playoff contention.

Both of those games are about to kickoff.

Just an embarrassing effort from the Miami Dolphins. 

Wow.

Dolphins trail Bills 10-0 going into final quarter

No offense.

No defense.

No Miami touchdowns.

9 possessions. 9 punts.

I've got absolutely nothing for you.

To the fourth. 

Bills lead hungover Dolphins 10-0 at halftime

Just an awful first half from the Miami Dolphins.

Buffalo has 256 yards.

Miami has 56.

Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 4 times.

Thad Lewis has been sacked 0 times.

Brian Hartline dropped a potential TD.

There has been absolutely no running game.

A Nolan Carroll INT may be the only thing keeping this game close.

The 5-9 team, eliminated from the playoffs, is playing inspired football.

The 8-6 team, who controls it's own destiny, looks like crap.

To add insult to injury, Cincinnati currently leads Minnesota 28-7.

The season could very well be on the line when the second half begins. And Buffalo will get the ball first, up by 10.

Embarrassing.

To the third.

Bills lead Dolphins 3-0 after first quarter

Disastrous start.

Offense can't protect Ryan Tannehill.

Brian Hartline can't catch a pass.

Defense can't stop the run of put any pressure on Thad Lewis.

A Dan Carpenter FG is the difference right now, but the Bills are inside the Miami 20.

To the second.

Grimes, Thomas to play as Fins, Bills near kickoff

75 minutes away!

Here are the inactives for Miami:

Gillislee, Devlin, Owens, Brown, Watkins, Arkin, Francis.

Brent Grimes and Nolan Carroll ARE active.

Daniel Thomas IS active.

All three will either start (Grimes and Carroll) or play a significant amount (Thomas).

The Dolphins are in the white tops with aqua pants.

Buffalo in the blue and white.

Mid 40's and cloudy right now with rain in the forecast.

Love blog starts soon.

See you there!

Gameday: 12 Days Of Christmas Edition PLUS prediction

Game day has arrived!

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are a mere four hours away from kicking things off up in rainy, cold, windy upstate New York.

I can't remember a Dolphins team with this much riding on a game, and being this close to the playoffs.

Just think, folks.  12 hours from now your Miami Dolphins could have a guaranteed postseason spot.

They could also be eliminated.

To the preview, which, in the spirit of Christmas, will be the 12 things the Dolphins MUST do today to get a win.  Enjoy.


1.  Run run Rudolph (Daniel and Lamar).  This is ESPECIALLY important today because of the weather.  Remember that snow game in Pittsburgh two weeks ago?  181 rushing yards, 2 TD's.  Best game of the year from an offensive standpoint.  Get the run game going today.

2.  Redemption for Tyson.  Mario Williams made Tyson Clabo look like an absolute joke in the first meeting, and it was the difference in the game.  Clabo has said this week he's eager to right the ship this time around, and he'll need to.

3.  Get Clay back on track.  Charles Clay was a focal point last week, and his one catch, albeit huge, was a direct result.  Look for this duo to get back on track today.

4.  Wrap up the present (CJ Spiller).  He's fast, he's dynamic, he can change the game in the blink of an eye.  Don't let poor tackling be the reason you miss the playoffs.  Wrap him up.

5.  Stay hot, Ryan.  I'm worried about Ryan Tannehill for this game.  The kid is FINALLY getting the attention he deserves, but I don't know if he can keep it up.  Tannehill struggled with this defense the first time around.  He MUST be a different QB today.

6.  Avoid the abominable turnovers.  After turning the ball over 18 times in their first 11 games, the Dolphins have just three giveaways in December.  They're now plus 2 in turnovers this season, good for 4th best in the league.  Hold the ball when you run, throw it to the guys in white, and you'll have success.

7.  The defensive line MUST guide Miami's sleigh.  Cam Wake and Olivier Vernon combined for ONLY one sack last week.  That has to change today, especially with an inexperienced QB at the helm.

8.  Start strong, finish stronger.  This team came out of the gates flat last week, but they finished with a bang.  While I don't condone this trend, finishing strong today will be HUGE.  At the same time, it may not be necessary if they just start strong too.

9.  Jingle ALL THE WAY.  Miami is among the best in the NFL when it comes to scoring in the red zone, and, if you watched last week, you know how huge it is.  The Dolphins went 2/3 inside the 20.  New England went 1/4.  See the difference?  Don't stop at the 20, jingle ALL THE WAY to the end zone.

10.  Dashing through the defense.  One of the biggest differences for the Dolphins offense during this streak are the plays guys like Brian Hartline, Mike Wallace, and Charles Clay are making.  Look at Wallace's TD last week, look at Clay's from two weeks ago.  Continue breaking tackles, continue making big plays, continue winning.

11.  Stay creative.  Yeah, no pun here, just simple and to the point.  Keep giving the ball to Mike Wallace out of the backfield, keep drawing up goal line plays like that thing of beauty to Daniel Thomas last week, and you'll have fun today.

12.  BE MERRY.  This team is having fun.  They're bonding, gelling, and just having fun on the football.  And it's showing every week, more and more.  Don't stop today. Besides, it's the most wonderful time of the year!  Have fun, win the game, and be merry!


PREDICTION

I've heard the term trap game all week long, and I agree.  To an extent.  However, I don't see it happening.  Not to this team, with this coach, with this group of guys.  They're focused, they know what's at stake, they know what's on the line.  I don't see any emotional hangovers today, not when they're still so much left to be done.

Protect Tannehill, run the ball, and stop CJ Spiller.  That's the recipe today.

Final: Dolphins 24 Bills 14


Game time is right around the corner, make sure to come back soon and check out any last minute news, including the inactives for the game.

Then, follow the live blog throughout the game, beginning after the first quarter.

GO FINS

A Merry Helping Of Week 16 Picks and Predictions

And a very Merry Christmas to everybody out there.  To everybody who reads and follows, I would like to send out a warm thank you for a wonderful 2013 NFL season.

BUT, it's not over yet!  We have a HUGE week this week, one that, if everything plays out right, could be historical.  Yes, I'm referring to our first ever playoff clinch here at The Dolphinsider.

However, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet.

To the picks:


Last weeks record: 9-6

Overall record: 131-79-1


New Orleans @ Carolina:  Coming out of the gates firing, huh?  Big time game here, and a tough, tough pick.  My gut tells me New Orleans, but my head is screaming Carolina. Let's go with the head on this one.  Give me the Panthers.

Minnesota @ Cincinnati:  Give credit to Leslie Frasier, his team comes out and plays a hard 60 minutes each and every week, even without a good QB or, in last week's case, Adrian Peterson.  I think their luck runs out here though.  Give me the Bengals at home.

Denver @ Houston:  I don't like this matchup one bit for the Texans.  If you think I'm picking against an angry Peyton Manning who had ten days to stew over a home loss, then you're nuts.  Give me the Broncos.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville:  There may not be a more uninteresting game the rest of the season.  Titans.

Indianapolis @ Kansas City:  Playoff preview here, as these two teams are likely to face off again in a couple weeks.  In both cases, I think the Chiefs win.  I like what that offense is doing right now.

Dallas @ Washington:  I want to pick the Redskins here, I really, really do.  But I don't think even Tony Romo can screw up against this secondary.  Gulp.  Cowboys.

Cleveland @ NY Jets:  Like the Vikings, these Browns are a tough out.  I like that defense, and I especially like them against Geno Smith.  Give me the Browns on the road.

Tampa Bay @ St. Louis:  Mike Glennon may have a long, long day.  I'll take the Rams.

Arizona @ Seattle:  A bit of an under the radar game here, as Arizona has their season on the line in the most hostile territory in the league.  Can they pull it out?  Sure.  Will they?  Probably not.  Give me the Seahawks to keep rollin'.

NY Giants @ Detroit:  Don't put Matt Stafford and company to bed just yet, because Eli Manning can fix any team when they're down in the dumps.  I like the Lions to rebound in a big way.

New England @ Baltimore:  I don't see Tom Brady losing two in a row.  Does he even know how that feels?  The Ravens are hot, they're at home, and they've recently owned New England.  But I don't care.  Tom Brady doesn't lose back to back games.  I'll take the Patriots to wrap up the AFC East with a big road win.

Oakland @ San Diego:  Is there a more inconsistent team in the NFL then San Diego? The same team that beat the Broncos last week also lost to these Raiders earlier in the year.  At this point, you just throw out the stats and give it your best guess.  My guess here?  The Chargers.

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay:  Will Matt Flynn put up Aaron Rodgers numbers again this week?  Probably not.  But I still like him to win this game.  I don't know why, I don't know how, but I just have that feeling.  I'll take the Packers to stay alive with a big time win.

Chicago @ Philadelphia:  There could be an awful lot of points put up in this game, as both defenses, well, struggle.  Chicago ranks 27th defensively, and 7th offensively, while Philadelphia ranks 30th and 2nd.  The scoreboard operator could be the MVP when this one's all said and done.  I like the Eagles here, but it's close.

Atlanta @ San Francisco:  This is your big grand finale, MNF?  A fitting end to a pretty mediocre season.  Can we PLEASE flex these games next year?  I like the 49ers here. Big time.


Huge.  Enormous.  Gigantic.  All words that describe this game tomorrow (today). Kickoff is 13 hours away, folks.

You know what's at stake, you know the scenarios, time to sit back, bite the nails, and maybe fold the hands once in a while.

Come back in the morning (later) for ALL your pre-game coverage, including my prediction.  Then, come back AGAIN right before kickoff for any last minute news.

THEN, come back AGAIN, so you can follow the live blog throughout the game.

13 hours.

Rainy Conditions In Buffalo; Another Clinching Scenario (the bad kind); Week 16 Viewer Guide; Grimes To Play?

Alright, just over 24 hours until the Dolphins HUGE kickoff up in Buffalo where the snow will be falling all day long...

But not really.  There will be something falling, yes, but it'll be something these Floridians are much more accustomed to:

Rain.

The forecast for tomorrow is calling for a balmy 47 degrees, which, in December, in Buffalo, is an absolute blessing.

HOWEVER, the forecast is also calling for rain.  How possible is it?

Well, 100%, apparently.

This will make for an interesting game.  Amazingly, Ryan Tannehill really hasn't played much in the rain over the last two years, even though he plays in South Florida.

The ball will be slippery.  Depending on how hard it's raining, visibility could be at a minimum.

So yes, conditions will make this a very interesting game.

Just some food for thought.


THE BAD CLINCHING SCENARIO

All the talk this week has been about the Miami Dolphins MAKING the playoffs in the next two weeks, and rightfully so.

However, while Miami COULD clinch a spot tomorrow (a win PLUS losses by Cin and Balt), there is also another scenario the Dolphins could face at the end of the day.

And it's not nearly as much fun to talk about, think about, or discuss.

IF Miami and San Diego lose, and Baltimore and Cincinnati win, then the Dolphins will be eliminated from postseason play for the 5th straight season.

The key here is San Diego.  Even if Miami loses, and the other two win, if the Chargers WIN then the Fins will be alive heading into the final week.

Why?

Well, San Diego and Miami would be tied at 8-7, with Baltimore a game up at 9-6 and facing the 10-5 Bengals.

In this scenario, the ONLY way Miami makes the playoffs would be a win, obviously, along with a win from San Diego and a LOSS by Baltimore.

Miami, San Diego, and Baltimore would then all be 9-7, with the Dolphins winning the three way tiebreaker.


WEEK 16 VIEWER GUIDE

Which brings us to our weekly "who to watch and who to root for" section:


Minnesota @ Cincinnati (1:00, FOX):  Need the Bengals to lose here, plain, simple, and possible.  However, I'd feel a lot better about this game if it were in Minnesota.  Did you see the Bengals on the road last week?  We'll see, these Vikings play everybody tough.

New England @ Baltimore (4:25, CBS):  Bit of a double-edged sword here.  IF Miami wins, AND New England loses, then the division will still be up for grabs heading into next week.  Heck, the #2 seed will even still be a possibility.  HOWEVER, does anyone really think Brady and the Pats lose to the Bills, at home, with the division on the line? Let's not take any chances here.  Root for a Baltimore loss, and get us one step closer to January football.

Oakland @ San Diego (4:25, CBS):  As I just alluded to, the Chargers could be the only thing keeping Miami alive tomorrow if the Fins can't get the job done in Buffalo.  Root for San Diego here, big time.


FINAL INJURY REPORT

Here ya go:


Questionable: RB Daniel Thomas (ankle)

Probable: DT Paul Soliai (ankle), CB Brent Grimes (groin), LS John Denny (ankle), S Chris Clemons (hamstring, knee), CB Nolan Carroll (knee), S Reshad Jones (groin), DE Olivier Vernon (ankle), CB Jamar Taylor (hamstring)

Brent Grimes WILL play tomorrow.  Nolan Carroll WILL play tomorrow.  Those two were the only question marks this week, as both left Sunday's game with injuries.  Having them back in the secondary is HUGE, folks.

I also expect Daniel Thomas to play, barring a setback.


Picks and predictions are on deck.

Stay tuned.

24 hours.

Lewis, Smith Standing In Between Fins And Playoffs; Game Plan Won't Change

Apologies for the short hiatus as I've been traveling and such for the last 48 hours.

BUT don't get too concerned, because, like Thad Lewis, I'm back.

Wait, what?

That's right, in case you STILL haven't heard, Dolphin killer Thad Lewis will be back behind center come Sunday for the Buffalo Bills.

You know, the Thad Lewis that somehow beat the Miami Dolphins back in week 7?

The Thad Lewis that helped Buffalo convert 9-19 third downs?

The Thad Lewis that took a punishing third down hit on the final drive, still completed the pass, and drew a penalty that set up Dan Carpenter's game winning FG?

Yes, all those things DID happen some two months ago.

HOWEVER, that was a completely different Miami Dolphins team.

Ryan Tannehill was no where near the QB he is today.  The defense has tightened up (even though they still struggle with the run), and has learned how to finish games.  The wide receivers know how to break tackles and make plays now.  Charles Clay has become a household name.

Yes, this a very different team, playing for a lot more than they were two months ago.

And, unlike two months ago, this team can now see very clearly what they need to do.

Beat Thad Lewis, a former practice squad QB turned starter, and beat Geno Smith, the rookie who completed four passes against them earlier this month, and they are in the playoffs.

That's it.

Standing in the way of the Miami Dolphins and their first postseason appearance in FIVE years is THAD LEWIS, and GENO SMITH.

You know who's standing in Baltimore's way?

Tom Brady and Andy Dalton.

No pity party for you, Miami.  If YOU don't get in, you have nobody to blame but yourselves.

If you CAN'T beat Thad Lewis and Geno Smith, after beating guys like Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and even Andrew Luck, then, quite frankly, you don't deserve the playoffs.

If you let Thad Lewis beat you TWICE in a season, then you don't deserve the playoffs.

Remember that article I wrote two weeks ago?  That message to the Miami Dolphins?

FINISH THE JOB.

Don't let Thad and Geno stand in your way.


NO MANUEL, NO DIFFERENCE

Now, despite everything I just said, inserting Thad Lewis into the lineup really won't change much in this game.

The game plan has always been, and will always be, stop the run, and keep Ryan Tannehill upright.

Do those two things and you're leaving Buffalo with a win.  It's that simple.

The Bills lead the NFL with 49 sacks through 14 games, and, if you remember, it was Mario Williams' sack of Ryan Tannehill that cost Miami the football game back in October.

That sack led to a fumble, which gave the ball back to Buffalo, that led to a Dan Carpenter FG with 30 seconds left.

That front four is scary good, and keeps them in a lot of football games.  Thad Lewis, EJ Manuel, or Jim Kelly, it really doesn't matter.

What does matter is keeping Ryan Tannehill upright.  That's the challenge.  Not the QB.

How about the running game?  Yeah, that running game, the one that ranks 4th in the NFL with nearly 140 yards a game.

Now, the Miami defense did a nice job of containing it in the first matchup, holding Tashard Choice and Fred Jackson to only 90 yards.

But remember, CJ Spiller was hurt for that game.  He tried to go, but wasn't nearly 100%.  Well, Miami won't be that lucky this time as Buffalo's biggest threat is good to go this week.

This run defense struggles.  I don't know why, but they do.  You saw it early on last week.  You've seen it, at some point, every week.

Again, it doesn't matter who the QB WAS going to be, this is a run first offense regardless.

Stop the run.  Force Thad Lewis to beat you, AGAIN.  Don't give him any help.

The quarterbacks may have changed for this one, but the game plan certainly did not.

More to come tomorrow.

ONE More Look At How Miami Controls Destiny PLUS Week 16 Clinching Scenario

I don't understand why people, and networks, and "experts," can't seem to grasp this concept.

It was brought to my attention last night that ESPN still doesn't quite understand it. Then, just moments ago, Pete Prisco of CBS sports uttered this exact phrase:

"I think they win out, but I don't know if they get in."

What?  WHAT?

Everybody, say it with me, "If Miami wins out, they ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS."

It doesn't matter what Baltimore does.  It doesn't matter what Cincinnati does.  Say it again:

"If Miami wins out, they ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS."

Please, feel free to try to prove me wrong.  Here's the link:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine 

Try any combination you'd like, it won't matter.  Say it again:

"If Miami wins out, they ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS."

I don't quite understand why it's so hard for people to understand this.  I really don't. Here it is, as simple as I can possibly make it for you.

If Miami wins out, they'll be 10-6.

Now, there is NO POSSIBLE WAY that both Cincinnati and Baltimore can win out because they play each other in week 17.

So, based on that, if Miami and Baltimore BOTH win out, then the Ravens win the AFC North, and Miami takes the final wild card spot.

If Miami and Cincinnati BOTH win out, then the Bengals win the North and the Dolphins take the final wild card spot.

Oh Zach, what happens if Miami wins Sunday but Baltimore and Cincinnati both lose?

Well, then the Dolphins wouldn't have to worry about week 17, because they would then clinch the final wild card spot.  That final game between Baltimore and Cincinnati would basically serve as an elimination game, with the winner hosting the Dolphins the following week.

There you go.  That's it.  Pretty simple.  Pretty straightforward.

And don't mention the word "tie" to me, because it wouldn't have any impact at all.


EVEN if the Bengals and Ravens tie in the season-finale, after winning games this week, the Dolphins still qualify based on winning percentage if they win out.

The winning percentage for 10-6 is .625.

The winning percentage for 9-6-1 is .593


Say it one more time, folks:

"If Miami wins out, they ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS."

Playoffs? The Miami Dolphins Are In Control

There's so much good to take from yesterday.

Ryan Tannehill outplayed Tom Brady.  Joe Philbin out-coached Bill Belichick.

And, for the first time since 2009, the Miami Dolphins beat the New England Patriots.

But, while not as symbolic or emotional, the biggest takeaway from yesterday's win is this:  With Cincinnati's loss last night, the Miami Dolphins officially control their own destiny for the playoffs.

Read that again, Dolfans.  Embrace it.  Soak it in.  Because that very line has not been written since 2008.

IF the Dolphins beat Buffalo next week, then finish off the Jets in week 17, they will represent the final wild card team in the AFC.  REGARDLESS of what the Baltimore Ravens do.

How?  Try to keep up.


Cincinnati's loss last night puts them at 9-5, with remaining games against Minnesota AND Baltimore.

That last one is key.  Why?

IF Miami wins out, all they need is ONE loss by either Baltimore or Cincinnati to get in. Well, that is guaranteed to happen because of the week 17 matchup.

Here is every possible scenario for the remainder of the season, again, IF Miami wins out:


SCENARIO 1 (IF Balt and Mia both win out, and Cin wins next week)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 10-6

Cincinnati 10-6

- In this scenario, Baltimore would win the AFC North via tiebreaker, and Miami would win the 6th wild card spot OVER Cincinnati because of the head to head matchup.


SCENARIO 2 (IF Mia and Balt win out, and Cin loses next week)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 10-6

Cincinnati 9-7

- Dolphins at Ravens, round 2!



SCENARIO 3 (IF Mia wins out, Balt wins tonight and next week, AND Cin wins out)

Miami 10-6

Cincinnati 11-5

Baltimore 9-7

- In this scenario, Cincinnati would take the AFC North, and Miami would take the final wild card spot.



SCENARIO 4  (IF Mia wins out, Balt finishes 1-2, and Cin finishes 1-1)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 8-8

Cincinnati 10-6

- Refer to above response.

SCENARIO 5 (IF Mia wins out, Balt loses final three, and Cin wins next week)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 7-9

Cincinnati 11-5

- You can do the math.


SCENARIO 6 (IF Mia wins out, Balt loses next two, beats Cin, and Cin loses next week)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 9-7

Cincinnati 9-7

- Dolphins get the wild card, yet have to travel to Baltimore (who wins the tiebreaker with Cincinnati), even though they have a better record.  Gold star for the NFL.



I THINK I covered them all.  I don't know, my head hurts at this point.

My point is this.  As long as Miami WINS OUT, they will be in the playoffs. Plain. Simple.  No headache.

We have about 12 more hours to savor this win, because, as you can see, the games continue to grow in importance.

However, as long as this team wins out, there will be no scoreboard watching for the next two weeks.  Take solace in that, Dolfans.

Again, it's something this team hasn't been able to say in a long, long time.


Check back later for an updated playoff outlook FOLLOWING tonight's game between Baltimore and Detroit.


With any luck, we'll be talking about clinching scenarios for next week.

 

A Landmark Win For Surging Miami Dolphins

There's a message posted around the Miami Dolphins locker room.  The message is a quote from Miami Heat owner Pat Riley.  It reads:

Every now and then, somewhere, someplace, sometime, you are going to have to plant your feet, stand firm, and make a point about WHO YOU ARE, and what you believe in.

About an hour ago, with the season on the line and their backs against the wall, the Miami Dolphins filled in all the blanks, in the most dramatic, heart wrenching of fashions.

The somewhere?  An electric Sun Life Stadium.

The someplace?  The Miami 14 yard line.

The sometime?  :07 seconds left, fourth down.

Enter newly signed CB Michael Thomas.  Who?  You're not the only one asking.

"I didn't even know his first name," Jared Odrick later told the South Florida media.

"He just got here this week, nobody knows his name," added Bryant McKinnie.

"Who is number 31?"

After intercepting Tom Brady in the end zone with his new team's season hanging in the balance, I think it's safe to say Michael Thomas is now a household name in Miami.

Message read.  Message received.  Message executed.

What a game.  What a season.  What a special group of players within that once heralded locker room.

Where do you even start?  How about number 17?  The kid is growing up right before your eyes, Dolfans, and he's doing it at a rapid pace.

Ryan Tannehill finished the day 25-37, 312 yards, 3 TD's, and a career best 120.6 QB rating.  But none of that mattered on the final offensive drive, where Tannehill took over with 4:07 to play from his own 40 yard line.

Following a second down sack, Tannehill connected with Brian Hartline up to the Miami 45, setting up a fourth down and 5, and forcing Joe Philbin to make a decision that, like Tannehill, would force him to grow up as well.

Punt, or put the season on the line right now.  

Philbin chose the ladder, and Charles Clay did the rest, catching a screen pass behind the line of scrimmage, breaking a tackle, and forcing his way across the first down line.

Tannehill would go back to work, hitting Rishard Matthews and Brian Hartline on back to back plays, bringing Miami down to the New England 14 with just over a minute to play, and needing a touchdown.

And then, with the poise, accuracy, and composure of a wily veteran, Ryan Tannehill delivered, connecting with Marcus Thigpen on a back shoulder throw that gave Miami the lead with 1:14 to play.

Ryan Tannehill did his best Tom Brady.

And now, it was Brady's turn.

Starting from his own 20, with all three timeouts, Brady would methodically move the Patriots down the field, converting a huge fourth down along the way, all the way to the Miami 14 yard line.

Following a near TD pass to Danny Amendola (the ball was knocked out after he initially made the catch), and another heart stopping incompletion to TE Michael Hoomanawanui, Brady and the Patriots faced a fourth and five with seven seconds left.

With Brent Grimes on the sidelines nursing a groin injury he suffered earlier in the game, and Nolan Carroll right beside him because of an injury of his own, Michael Thomas was thrusted onto the field, along with rookie Will Davis, and asked to do something few can say they've done:

Stop Tom Brady.

In the biggest moment, on the biggest stage, Thomas and the Miami defense planted their feet, stood firm, and showed the NFL who they were, and what they believed in.

Interception.  Game over.  Seven game losing streak (to the Patriots) erased.

The Dolphins now sit at 8-6, winners of three in a row, and five of their last seven.  A Baltimore loss tomorrow night would give Miami sole possession of the final AFC wild card spot with two games to play.

But that will all take care of itself.  For now, Dolfans, enjoy it.  Because it really doesn't get any bigger than this.  

Something special is going on in Miami,  from the quarterback, to the head coach, and everyone in between.

Somewhere, someplace, Pat Riley is smiling tonight.

A landmark win for the ages.

GAME NOTES

Mike Wallace finished the day with 6 catches for 105 yards and a TD.  Brian Hartline had 5 catches for 70 yards.  Julian Edleman and Danny Amendola had a combined 23 catches for 270 yards and a TD.  New England out-gained Miami 453-378, but only scored 1 TD in 4 red zone attempts, while the Dolphins scored twice in three opportunities.

Dolphins lead Pats 17-10 to start 4th quarter

A Caleb Sturgis FG, followed by a Cam Wake third down sack has turned momentum in Miami's favor.

And they took advantage to begin the fourth quarter, as a long, methodical Dolphins drive, that included big passes to Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace, ended with a TD pass to Daniel Thomas.

Dolphins lead 17-10

Can they hold on?

Pats lead Dolphins 10-7 at halftime

Well, thanks to a Ryan Tannehill last minute TD to Mike Wallace, we have a ball game.

Following a NE touchdown (a great one handed catch by a TE whose name I'm not going to attempt to spell), Miami took over with no timeouts at there own 18.

Tannehill took over from there, hitting Matthews on a big third down, and then Marlon Moore to bring them into NE territory.

Tannehill then hit Wallace over the middle on third and two, and Wallace would break a tackle and take it to the house

Tannehill finished the half 12-19, 171 yards, and the TD.

Wallace has 4 catches for 83 yards and a TD.

There are, however, several issues Miami MUST fix.

Tannehill has been sacked THREE times.

Brady has had a clean pocket all day.

New England is running the ball effectively.

Those things must change if Miami is to win this game.

To the third.

Pats lead Dolphins 3-0 after first quarter

Not a good first quarter at all for the Dolphins.

After an opening Miami drive stalled at midfield, New England took the ball 16 plays and kicked a chip shot FG.

Both teams then traded punts.

The Patriots are putting a lot of emphasis on Charles Clay and running the ball.

So far Miami has had no answer.

To the second.

Dolphins, Pats 90 minutes away from kickoff; the inactives

Just. A. Little. Bit. Longer.

Just about 90 minutes to go, folks, as the ONLY battle of above .500 teams is about to get going down in South Beach.

Inactives?  I got em' for you, don't worry.


Miami:

CB Jamar Taylor, QB Pat Devlin, S D.J. Campbell, OL David Arkin, DB Justin Rogers, DL AJ Francis, OL Danny Watkins.


New England:

DE Bequette, LB Beuaharnais, WR Dobson, WR Thompkins, TE DJ Williams, OL Barker, DE Buchanan.


Dolphins in all white.  Patriots in navy and grey.

Kickoff is at 1:05!

Live blog starts shortly after.

GO FINS

Gameday: Five Keys To A Dolphins Win PLUS Prediction

If you're not ready for this one, then you don't have a pulse.

On that note, a very warm good morning to everybody!

And a good morning it is, as the Dolphins and Patriots are just about three hours away from kicking off a HUGE divisional matchup down in Sun Life Stadium.

No Gronk?  No Dobson?  No Thompson?

No win?

Hold your horses.  Tom Brady's still alive, right?  Bill Belichick too?

Yeah, better get to the keys before we get ahead ourselves.  Enjoy.


1.  Intensity, intensity, intensity.  I've said it all week, I have NEVER seen a Dolphins team this confident, or this focused, heading into a Patriots game.  The game is sold out, it's the premiere game of the day, and everything is on the line for the Miami Dolphins.  They need to harness this energy early, and all day long.  You may not be able to out coach Bill Belichick, but you can be more intense than him.

2.  Don't lose sight of Vereen.  Shane Vereen, for all intents and purposes, IS the New England offense right now.  He can run the ball, he can catch the ball, and he can be a matchup nightmare for this Dolphins defense.  It will be PIVOTAL for the Miami Dolphins to keep an eye on Vereen, especially in the passing game, and ESPECIALLY in the screen game.

3.  Make New England one-dimensional.  What's the biggest reason for letting up that 17-3 lead back in week 8?  The Patriots had no run game in the first half.  But in the second half?  Well over 150 yards on the ground.  This will be the most critical aspect to today's game, folks.  IF Miami can make Tom Brady and that Gronkowski-less offense one-dimensional, they will win this game.

4.  Get pressure, then stop the pressure.  Jared Odrick, Cam Wake, and Olivier Vernon had success last time in getting after Tom Brady.  They MUST keep this up today.  It's no secret that the best way to beat the Patriots is to consistently put pressure on Brady with a four men front.  Can't blitz too much.  Can't give him too much time.  On the other side, Ryan Tannehill was sacked SIX times in week 8.  Now, that was a much different offensive line, and a much different Ryan Tannehill.  Put Brady on his back, Keep Tannehill off his, and do it all day long.

5.  Run, run Ryan.  Hey, look at you Ryan Tannehill, look at you USING YOUR FEET!  I don't want to say I've said it all year, but, uh, I've said it all year long.  This offense is BETTER, more SUCCESSFUL, and AT IT'S BEST, when Ryan Tannehill utilizes his athleticism.  I'm not saying run the read option every down, and I'm not saying take off at the first sign of trouble.  But if there is field open ahead of you, RUN, Ryan!  RUN!!


PREDICTION

I'm going to be honest with you guys, I have no idea what to do here.  If the Miami Dolphins are ever to beat the Patriots, TODAY is the day.  No Gronkowski.  No Dobson. No Thompson.  Who's catching passes in a navy uniform that scares you today?  The problem I have is, the man throwing those passes, Tom Brady, hasn't lost to this team since 2009.  Miami has SO much going for them today- they're at home, it's hot, they've won back to back games- so I really, really want to pick them here.  HOWEVER, I've told you this before, and I'm going to stick to my guns here:  I cannot pick the Miami Dolphins UNTIL they actually beat the Patriots.  I just can't do it.

Final: Patriots 27 Dolphins 24


Just under three hours to go, folks.  Hang in there!

Come back right before game time for any last minute news, including the inactives.

Then, as always, make sure to follow the blog throughout the game, starting at the end of the first quarter.

2.5 HOURS

GO FINS

Week 15 in the NFL: Picks and predictions

Three weeks to go.

Buckle up.


Last weeks record: 11-4

Overall record: 122-73-1


Washington @ Atlanta:  Too much disfunction, too much drama.  Give me the Falcons.

San Francisco @ Tampa Bay:  This is a trap game game for Colin Kaepernick and company, ESPECIALLY coming off an emotional divisional win.  However, I think they find a way to get it done on the road.  I'll take the 49ers.

Seattle @ NY Giants:  I just don't think that Giants offense can overcome that Seattle defense.  Give me the Seahawks on the road.

Philadelphia @ Minnesota:  UPSET ALERT!!  I nailed it last week, and I have just as good of a feeling this week.  This Minnesota team has been close lately, and I think they finally put it all together here.  i'll take the Vikings in a close one.

Buffalo @ Jacksonville:  Henne!!! Give credit to Jacksonville, they've turned this into a respectable season after a brutal start.  I'll take the Jaguars here.  They're just the hotter team.

Houston @ Indianapolis:  I don't like what I've seen out of Indianapolis lately.  However, they're not bad enough to lose Case Keenum and Wade Phillips, right?  We'll see.  Give me the Colts.

Chicago @ Cleveland:  Jay Cutler>Josh McCown.  I don't care what his numbers look like.  Give me the Bears.

Kansas City @ Oakland:  I like what I saw out of Kansas City last week.  Meanwhile, Oakland lost to the Jets.  Get where I'm going with this?  Give me the Chiefs.

NY Jets @ Carolina:  Godspeed, Geno Smith.  Godspeed.  Panthers.

Green Bay @ Dallas:  No Aaron Rodgers?  No bueno.  Not on the road, not this late in the season.  I'll take Romo and the Cowboys.

Arizona @ Tennessee:  Give Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mike Munchak credit, despite the losses piling up, they still have this team in every game.  This one's tough for me.  I like both defenses, dislike both offenses, and think both QB's are mediocre.  Everyone cancels everyone out!  When that happens, I go with the home team.  Give me the Titans in a close one.

New Orleans @ St. Louis:  It doesn't matter where this game is, New Orleans is the better team, fair and square.  Give me the Saints.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh:  Something just tells me that Big Ben isn't quite ready to be done.  I'll take the Steelers in a good old fashion defensive struggle.

Baltimore @ Detroit:  The Ravens just barrely survived last week.  I don't think they're that lucky on Monday night.  Not against a ticked off Detroit team.  Give me the Lions.


Alright folks, that'll do it for now.

Check back tomorrow for you pre-game coverage, including my prediction.  And, as always, come back during the game for the live, quarter by quarter, blog of the game!

12 hours.

GO FINS

Ellerbe Has Message For Fans PLUS Week 15 Viewer Guide AND Final Injury Report

We have reached the 24 hour mark, as the Dolphins and Patriots are nearing their HUGE matchup at 1:05 tomorrow.

If you read the column from yesterday, than you know just how big this game is for the Miami Dolphins.

Well, not only do I know that (and if you read it, then you too), but the team knows it as well.  More specifically, Dannell Ellerbe.

Take a look:

That was Ellerbe's message to Dolphin fans that has been circulating around social media today.

Brian Hartline has retweeted it.  So has Brent Grimes.

Think this team is ready for tomorrow?  

The field will be ready too.  What do I mean by that?  Take a look for yourselves.  The grounds crew made some changes:

Packed house, aqua end zones, and an enlarged logo at midfield.  What else do you need?!

As I said, this is a HUGE game.

[Update: Apparently this was just a retweet by Ellerbe. Whatever, still got me pumped.]

WEEK 15 VIEWER GUIDE

New York Jets @ Carolina:  Pretty simple here.  While the Jets are a long shot to make the playoffs, they're still technically in the race at 6-7, and could pose some problems for Miami down the stretch in tie breaker scenarios.  Root for the Panthers here, and no, I shouldn't have had to tell you that.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh:  Miami's already beat Pittsburgh, so they're in the rear view mirror.  While it's slim, there's still a chance Baltimore could over take Cincinnati in the division, therefore pushing the Bengals down to the wild card race with the Dolphins. Miami owns that tie breaker thanks to a Halloween night win.  Root for the Steelers here.

Baltimore @ Detroit:  Do I really need to explain this one?  REG-GIE, REG-GIE, REG-GIE.  Ya know, just like the old days.

FINAL INJURY REPORT

Questionable: S Reshad Jones (groin), CB Jamar Taylor (hamstring) 

Probable: CB Nolan Carroll (hamstring), S Chris Clemons (knee, hamstring), P Brandon Fields (non-injury), OL Nate Garner (ribs), RB Lamar Miller (concussion), DT Paul Soliai (ankle), C Mike Pouncey (non-injury) 

Expect Jones to play, even though he was limited in practice all week.  It was more of a pre-caution than anything.  IF he can't, then look for Jimmy Wilson to be used a lot at the safety position.

Also expect Lamar Miller to play, as he's passed all of his concussion tests.  Whether or not he starts over Daniel Thomas is another story.  We'll see what Miami does.  My guess is they go with the hot hand, whoever that may be.

Picks and predictions coming up later.

ONE DAY.