Playoffs? The Miami Dolphins Are In Control

There's so much good to take from yesterday.

Ryan Tannehill outplayed Tom Brady.  Joe Philbin out-coached Bill Belichick.

And, for the first time since 2009, the Miami Dolphins beat the New England Patriots.

But, while not as symbolic or emotional, the biggest takeaway from yesterday's win is this:  With Cincinnati's loss last night, the Miami Dolphins officially control their own destiny for the playoffs.

Read that again, Dolfans.  Embrace it.  Soak it in.  Because that very line has not been written since 2008.

IF the Dolphins beat Buffalo next week, then finish off the Jets in week 17, they will represent the final wild card team in the AFC.  REGARDLESS of what the Baltimore Ravens do.

How?  Try to keep up.


Cincinnati's loss last night puts them at 9-5, with remaining games against Minnesota AND Baltimore.

That last one is key.  Why?

IF Miami wins out, all they need is ONE loss by either Baltimore or Cincinnati to get in. Well, that is guaranteed to happen because of the week 17 matchup.

Here is every possible scenario for the remainder of the season, again, IF Miami wins out:


SCENARIO 1 (IF Balt and Mia both win out, and Cin wins next week)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 10-6

Cincinnati 10-6

- In this scenario, Baltimore would win the AFC North via tiebreaker, and Miami would win the 6th wild card spot OVER Cincinnati because of the head to head matchup.


SCENARIO 2 (IF Mia and Balt win out, and Cin loses next week)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 10-6

Cincinnati 9-7

- Dolphins at Ravens, round 2!



SCENARIO 3 (IF Mia wins out, Balt wins tonight and next week, AND Cin wins out)

Miami 10-6

Cincinnati 11-5

Baltimore 9-7

- In this scenario, Cincinnati would take the AFC North, and Miami would take the final wild card spot.



SCENARIO 4  (IF Mia wins out, Balt finishes 1-2, and Cin finishes 1-1)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 8-8

Cincinnati 10-6

- Refer to above response.

SCENARIO 5 (IF Mia wins out, Balt loses final three, and Cin wins next week)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 7-9

Cincinnati 11-5

- You can do the math.


SCENARIO 6 (IF Mia wins out, Balt loses next two, beats Cin, and Cin loses next week)

Miami 10-6

Baltimore 9-7

Cincinnati 9-7

- Dolphins get the wild card, yet have to travel to Baltimore (who wins the tiebreaker with Cincinnati), even though they have a better record.  Gold star for the NFL.



I THINK I covered them all.  I don't know, my head hurts at this point.

My point is this.  As long as Miami WINS OUT, they will be in the playoffs. Plain. Simple.  No headache.

We have about 12 more hours to savor this win, because, as you can see, the games continue to grow in importance.

However, as long as this team wins out, there will be no scoreboard watching for the next two weeks.  Take solace in that, Dolfans.

Again, it's something this team hasn't been able to say in a long, long time.


Check back later for an updated playoff outlook FOLLOWING tonight's game between Baltimore and Detroit.


With any luck, we'll be talking about clinching scenarios for next week.