Gameday: Who has the Edge PLUS prediction

(Courtesy of Dolphins.com)

Gameday is FINALLY here, as the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens are just hours away from kicking off a huge AFC battle in South Beach.  I've said it all week, and I'll say it again here, this is the BIGGEST game of the season for the Dolphins.  Going into the bye week 4-1, with three conference wins, would be enormous for this team come December.

Can they do it?  Well, first, lets see who has the edge:

When the Dolphins run the ball:  If you read the post yesterday, than you should be well versed in this area.  This will be a huge focal point to for the Miami Dolphins.  Lamar Miller has shown signs of a breakout game over the past couple weeks, but he hasn't had the chance to put it all together.  I think Mike Sherman gives him that chance today.  

Baltimore ranks 16th against the run, giving up over 100 yards a game, while Miller averages over 4 yards a carry.  That, combined with Ryan Tannehill coming off his worse game, tells me that Miami will try to establish the run game early, and, unlike past weeks, they'll stick with it.  Look for a big game from Lamar Miller today.  EDGE:  Miami

When the Dolphins pass the ball:  18 sacks.  This is the NUMBER ONE point of emphasis for the Miami Dolphins today.  Protecting Ryan Tannehill for all four quarters will be the difference in this football game.  You know that, I know that, so lets just move on.  

I expect a bounce back game today for Ryan Tannehill.  The sophomore is coming off a three interception performance last week in New Orleans, where he also lost a fumble. What was more concerning for me was the chemistry, or lack thereof, between Tannehill and Mike Wallace.  

The two looked out of sync from the start on Monday night, and you have the feeling that one more bad game from the two could set Wallace off.  In-fact, it may have already started, as Wallace told reporters earlier this week that he was "worried" about his start to the season.  Look for Miami to target Wallace early, and look for OC Mike Sherman to get creative in moving Wallace around pre-snap.    As for who has the edge here, two weeks ago I would have given it to Miami, but I need to see Ryan Tannehill rebound first. EDGE:  Even

When the Ravens run the ball:  Ray Rice carried the ball FIVE times last week.  Five! Don't expect that here, even with a stout Miami run defense.  Paul Soliai returned on Monday night after missing some time, and his presence was apparent all night long, as the big man out of California was in the backfield on multiple occasions.  

However, one thing that does concern me here is the type of back Ray Rice is.  He's not the big, power back that Miami handles with ease.  He's the quick, elusive, speedy back that this defense has struggled with in the past.  That, combined with the fact that Rice will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after only touching the ball five times last week, could spell trouble for Miami's 10th ranked run defense.  This will be the battle to watch today.  EDGE:  Even

When the Ravens pass the ball:  Boy, did Joe Flacco look bad last week, or what?  Five interceptions, a 50% completion percentage, and a lot of questionable decisions highlighted a day to forget for the Ravens $120 million dollar man.  However, don't write off Flacco in this game.  He's historically bounced back very well after bad games, and gets to face a Miami defense without CB Dimitri Patterson for the fourth straight week. How'd that defense do last week against Drew Brees?  Well, it wasn't pretty.  Brees lit up the Miami secondary, throwing for over 400 yards, 4 TD's, and a near perfect QB rating.

However, the Dolphins do have some things going for them.  Flacco is working with a receiving core made up of Torrey Smith, Deonte Thompson, Marlon Brown, and Jacoby Jones.  To add on to that, Jones and Thompson are questionable for today's game with injuries.  Another thing to remember is this:  Miami struggles with Tight Ends, you saw it last week and you've seen it all season.  However, this is a Baltimore Ravens offense without Dennis Pitta.  In his place are Ed Dickson, and Dallas Clark, neither of whom have scored a touchdown this season.  Expect a back and forth battle today between Flacco and the Miami secondary.  EDGE:  Even

PREDICTION

I've said it all week, and I'll say it again here:  This game is a RESPONSE game for the Miami Dolphins.  They're 3-1, and in good position in the ever competitive AFC, but we haven't got to see this team respond to adversity yet this season.  Now, we will.  Ryan Tannehill must respond.  The offensive line must respond.  Mike Wallace must respond. The secondary must respond.

Do I expect them to?  Absolutely.  This game is Miami's for the taking.  They're at home, with a chance  to move to 4-1, and playing a depleted Baltimore Ravens team.  I like Tannehill to out play Flacco, Miller to out rush Rice, and the Miami Dolphins to head into the bye with a big time win under their belts.

Final: Ravens 20 Dolphins 24

They're about four hours from kickoff at Sun Life Stadium, so we're almost there, folks. If you need something to hold you over, go back and check out the week that was for the Miami Dolphins.

Click here to read why the running game will play a HUGE role in today's game.

Click here to read how Miami's response is much more important than their blowout loss on Monday night.

And click here to read how Joe Philbin summed up Monday night's loss better than anyone else.

Check back right before kickoff for any last minute news, including the inactives for both teams.  And, as always, follow the quarter by quarter blog starting at 1:05 today!

Until then

Go Fins!