Make no mistake about it, tomorrow's game against the Ravens will be HUGE. As I stated earlier in the week, I believe it to be the biggest game on the schedule this season.
Why?
Well, for a couple reasons. Number one, the Miami Dolphins are coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV. They need to, as I wrote about earlier this week, RESPOND to that poor showing.
Number two, the difference between 3-2 and 4-1 may not seem like a lot, but it is, ESPECIALLY given how competitive the AFC is shaping up to be this season.
And, number three, this is a conference game, folks. The loss against New Orleans may have looked bad, but it really won't matter come December. This game will. To have the head to head advantage over Baltimore for that last wild card spot will be HUGE. Bank on it.
Now that we got that all cleared up, to the actual game itself. Most of the focus this week has centered around Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill, and for good (or not so good) reason. Both are coming off terrible performances in which they combined for NINE turnovers, and both will be looking to rebound strong tomorrow.
However, I don't believe this game will be won or loss solely based on the quarterback play. Yes, if you read the headline than you know what I'm going to say next.
The running game, folks! Let's not forget about this phase of the game, even though the rushing attempts for both Lamar Miller and Ray Rice would suggest both coaching staffs have.
Last week, the Baltimore Ravens gave the ball to Ray Rice FIVE times. Yes, you read that right. Meanwhile, they let Joe Flacco throw the ball 50 times, with five of those attempts going to the Buffalo Bills.
Against the Saints, Lamar Miller had enormous success in the first half, running the ball 10 times for 57 yards and a TD. However, Miami was playing catch up the entire second half, and Miller had only ONE carry in the final 30 minutes.
What do these stats tell me?
They tell me that running the football will be a HUGE point of emphasis tomorrow.
Expect Ray Rice to get the football early and often, especially with Joe Flacco coming off a five INT game.
Same goes for Lamar Miller. Ryan Tannehill is coming off his worst performance of the season, Miller has been running the very ball effectively since his week one dud in Cleveland, and this Baltimore defense is mediocre against the run, giving up over 100 yards a game. That recipe tells me we'll see a lot of Lamar Miller tomorrow.
Now, if both these teams try to establish the run like I expect them to, who does that favor?
That's a tricky question. The stats would tell you Miami, but stats can be deceiving, as we all know.
The Dolphins rank 10th in run defense, giving up only 98.5 yards a game. Baltimore ranks 16th, giving up 106.8 yards per game. HOWEVER, Miami actually give up nearly a full yard more per rush than the Ravens do (3.5 to 4.2).
Another thing the stats won't tell you is this:
Ray Rice is the EXACT running back that Miami struggles with. If you've followed me since the beginning, than you know what I'm talking about. This defense handles the big, heavy, power running backs very well.
But the smaller, quicker, elusive backs? Well, that's where they struggle. And that's exactly what Ray Rice is.
On the other side of the ball, the stats would tell you that Lamar Miller should have success running the ball. His average yard per carry this season is 4.6, which is right in line with his career average of 4.9,
However, I question his durability. He's only carried the ball 46 times this year, which puts him right in the 10 carries per game range. If Mike Sherman leans on his tomorrow, can Miller keep up? If he can't, and you have to go to Daniel Thomas, this offense could struggle running the ball.
Don't think so? Thomas has 25 carries this season for 70 yards. That's under 3 yards a carry.
That's bad.
So, back to my original question. Who exactly does it favor if both these teams try to establish the run?
Well, I'd say it could potentially favor both teams.
Which means they'd cancel each other out.
Which means I'm wrong about one thing I said earlier:
I guess this game WILL come down to quarterback play.
Don't they all?
OTHER NOTES
The final injury report came out yesterday. Here it is:
Out: CB Dimitri Patterson (groin)
Questionable: DE Cameron Wake (knee), LB Jason Trusnik (ribs), Don Jones (elbow), WR Brandon Gibson (ankle)
Probable: DT Paul Soliai (knee), LB Dannell Ellerbe (knee), S Chris Clemons (glute), LB Koa Misi (shoulder), LB Jonathan Freeny (shoulder), CB Nolan Carroll (ankle)
My thoughts? I expect Cameron Wake to play. He participated in practice all week, spoke to the media, and reports have him looking much better than he did a week ago. However, with the bye week coming up, the coaching staff could very well take the conservative approach with Wake and sit him out one more week. We'll see.
As for Brandon Gibson, I expect him to play as well. This ankle injury is not new. It's been a lingering injury for a couple weeks now, and Gibson has played well despite it. However, if Gibson doesn't play I still think Miami will be okay. Rishard Matthews has been solid this season, catching every ball thrown to him, and he's got good chemistry with Ryan Tannehill.
Check back later today for your week 5 picks and predictions. And, as always, come back tomorrow morning for all your pre-game Miami Dolphins coverage, and come back tomorrow afternoon for the live, quarter by quarter, blog starting at 1:05.
Until later...
GO FINS
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