Cameron Wake can be the difference on Sunday

Cameron Wake has played in six career games against the Patriots, dating back to his first in 2009.  However, in those six games, Wake has only recorded four sacks, and hasn't recorded a multiple sack game yet.

If the Dolphins are to win on Sunday, this must change.

Tom Brady has only been sacked 15 times this year, that's good for second best in the league behind Eli Manning, and has only been hit 36 times, which has him tied for first, again with Manning.

My point?  Tom Brady rarely has to clean his jersey.  Hence his 24 TD's and only 3 INT's.  Hence his 105.2 QB rating.  Hence his 8-3 record.

Get my drift?

If Miami wants to have a chance in this one, Cameron Wake, and the rest of the defensive line for that matter, must come out to play Sunday.  But lets focus on Wake right now, because not only does his 9.5 sacks have him 5th in the NFL, but he'll also be going up against a) a banged up Sebastian Vollmer or b) second year backup Marcus Cannon.

Wake must take advantage of either, because he could make a difference in this game.  Lets say he puts on another performance like he did in week four against Arizona, when he recorded 4.5 sacks.

Now, feel a little better about this one?

I don't expect Wake to do that, don't get me wrong, when the man is on he's unstoppable, but if he can even record, say, 2-3 sacks, then this game could change in a hurry.  On top of that, Wake, along with the rest of the Miami defensive line, must constantly put pressure on Brady.  From the first snap, to the last, this Miami front four must be in the backfield, because if the Fins are forced to blitz, the 13th year man out of Michigan will pick them apart.

Look at last December, when the Fins lost to the Pats 27-24, but were up 17-0 at halftime.  Tom Brady was sacked two times in that first half, but more importantly, was constantly under pressure and had little time to throw.  In the second half, while the Fins did record two sacks, the pressure on Brady was significantly less, and the pro bowler led the Pats to 27 unanswered points en route to the win.

If you want to beat this offense, the key is winning the battle up front, and on Sunday, Cam Wake is going to have to take the lead on this.  He'll be going up against either a banged up Sebastian Vollmer, or second year back up in Marcus Cannon, so the opportunity will be there, Wake just has to take it.

Lets hope for the Dolphins sake he does.

How do you beat the Patriots? Run the ball, create turnovers, and stay on the field

There's no sugar-coating it- the Dolphins have a MONUMENTAL task in-front of them on Sunday.

The Patriots are about as hot as you can get right now, winning five in a row, and scoring a ridiculous 219 points in the process (that's a 43.8 average).  Tom Brady is playing like, well, Tom Brady, and their defense/special teams have scored EIGHT touchdowns this season; not to mention their plus 24 turnover ratio, which is easily best in the league.

So, can the Dolphins, who are currently a seven point underdog at home, pull off the nearly unthinkable upset?  Sure they can, any given Sunday, right?  A win on Sunday will seriously turn the Fins into January contenders, and will most certainly grab the attention of the rest of the league.

However, after looking back at past victories over the Patriots (it didn't take that long, they've only had two since 2008), it's become clear to me that Miami must follow some guidelines if they are to pull off the... "unpullable."


1)  Keep that offense off the field!  Think of it like this, the Fins must play defense on offense.  Convert third downs, throw a couple of those 13-14 play drives together, and do not, DO NOT, turn the ball over.  In the only two wins Miami has had over New England since 2008, they've won the time of possession and turnover battle each time. See a trend?  Even the great Tom Brady can't beat you from the bench, can he?

2)  Run, run, run the ball.  This one goes hand in hand with number one, but only if you run it effectively.  In previous years, that wouldn't be an issue against the Patriots defense, but that's not the case this year, as the unit ranks 9th against the run.  In both the 2008 and 2009 wins, the Fins ran the ball for nearly 100 yards or more each time. In their "birth of the wildcat" win in 2008, the Fins ran wild, racking up over 200 yards on the ground.  No, I don't expect that same production here by any means, but if the Fins are to control the ball and win the game, their running game must put up anywhere from 120-180 yards on the ground.

3)  Create turnovers on defense.  This will be a huge challenge on Sunday for the Miami Dolphins, as Tom Brady isn't exactly the giving type.  The future hall of famer has been picked off three times in 421 attempts, THREE!  In-fact, his career low is four in 2010, so he has a legitimate shot at topping that this season.  The Fins have been working on fumbles all week in practice, and with good cause, because that may be their only chance at a turnover.  Back in 2009 the Fins won the turnover battle, picking off Brady twice, with one of those coming in the endzone.  They also won the turnover battle in their 2008 victory, however, I don't put too much into that because Brady was injured.

My point?  If you want to beat the Patriots, you must find a way keep them off the field, and that means you must create turnovers.  Gulp.

This will by far be the toughest task of the year for the Miami Dolphins, but the Patriots can be beat.

Like Joe Philbin said, it's just going to take a near perfect game to do it.

Ryan Tannehill earning his stripes in season's stretch run

Tie game, ninety yards to go, one timeout, a little over a minute left in regulation.

And the league's 5th ranked defense standing in the way.

That was the situation rookie QB Ryan Tannehill was faced with yesterday afternoon; a situation, I might add, he'd faced four times before.

He trailed by three in Indianapolis, and lost.

He was tied in OT against the Jets, and lost.

He was tied in OT against Arizona, and lost.

And finally, you have last week's game in Buffalo, where Tannehill took over, trailing by five, with under two minutes left to play.  Another chance, and another loss.

So here he was again, facing a defense that beat Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Tony Romo, in a tie game, with just a tick over a minute and a half to play.  Some thought Joe Philbin would run the ball, play conservative at home, take his chances in overtime.

And then Ryan Tannehill took the snap on first and ten.

19 yard pass to Davone Bess.

15 yard scramble.

Another 25 yards to Bess.

7 yards to Charles Clay.

Game. Set. Match.  24-21, Miami.

And just like that, with every pass, every scramble, every spot on decision, Ryan Tannehill grew up.

And isn't that what this season is really about?

Yes, I know, it's about January, the playoffs, the Super Bowl, I get that.  But this team isn't ready for any of that just yet.  They lack a legitimate wide receiver. They need another offensive lineman.  They need another cornerback, and probably another pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake.  Yes, they are only one game out of a wildcard spot with plenty of football left, but, as I've mentioned before, anything outside of Ryan Tannehill's progression is icing on the cake when the smoke settles on these 2012 Miami Dolphins.

And, as we saw yesterday, that progression is coming along just swimmingly.

In-fact, I'll argue that Ryan Tannehill's performance yesterday was the BEST one of his young career.  Why?  Because the kid adjusted, bounced back, and won a game for his team that, without him, they probably wouldn't have won.

Jump back to the first three quarters, when Ryan Tannehill was being vastly outplayed by rookie counterpart Russell Wilson.  He threw a bad interception early, another one later on a throw that absolutely should not have been made (thankfully, it was nullified by a penalty), and was looking very much like he'd officially hit that proverbial "rookie wall."  However, when the final fifteen minutes were put on the clock, Tannehill made us all believers.

He led two 80 yard TD drives, both times when trailing, and then capped it off with his final act in the closing minutes.  His fourth quarter numbers?  Outstanding.  7-9, 156 yards, and one perfectly thrown TD to Charles Clay.  His fourth quarter QB rating? 155.7.

When it mattered most, Tannehill, the rookie, put the team on his back, led not one, not two, but three scoring drives, and did what rookie QB's have to do to make it in this business:

Earn his stripes.

And he earned a big one yesterday.

Unfortunately, the guy he's facing next week has more stripes then a herd of zebra's.

But hey, that's another story, for another time.

    

Dolphins ride Carpenter's 43 yard game winner to 24-21 victory

What a fourth quarter.

Daniel Thomas tied the game at 14, only to have Leon Washington bring the lead back to Seattle with a 94 yard kickoff return.

Miami would respond, as Ryan Tannehill hit Charles Clay 29 yards in the air to tie the game at 21.

After a Seattle punt, Ryan Tannehill led the Fins down the field, completing 3-3 passes for 51 yards, and set the Fins up for a 43 yard field goal which Dan Carpenter would hit as time expired.

Whew.

This snaps the three game losing streak for Miami and brings their record to 5-6 on the season.

Ryan Tannehill finished the day 18-26, 253 yards, a TD and an INT. He had a QB rating of 97.1.

The offense put up 435 yards against one of the top defenses in the league.

More to come.

Seahawks lead Dolphins 14-7 going into final quarter

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks put together their second straight 80 yard drive to go up 14-7 in the third quarter.

Wilson, may I add, has also completed 14 straight passes, and leads the Hawks in rushing yards.

Can Ryan Tannehill lead the Fins back?

To the final quarter.

Dolphins, Seahawks tied at 7 at the half

Reggie Bush found the endzone to cap off an impressive 94 yard drive for the Fins to give them a 7-0 lead.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks responded with a TD and 80 yard drive of their own.

Both defenses are playing well.

Both offenses seem to be picking it up.

To the third.

Seahawks, Dolphins scoreless after first quarter

Not much offense today out of either team.

The Seahawks are committing penalties all over the place.

Ryan Tannehill threw a bad interception and the play calling has been ultra conservative.

The battle of the punters has been fierce!

To the 2nd.

Fins, 'Hawks ready to go; the inactives

The Fins and Seahawks are kicking off in just under an hour!

The inactives for Miami are Lamar Miller, Pat Devlin, Ryan Durand, Josh Kaddu, Will Yeatman, Michael Egnew, and Kyle Miller.

The Fins are in all white today.

Live blog starts at 1.

Go Fins!

Gameday: three keys to a Dolphins victory PLUS prediction

It is gameday here at the Dolphinsider, and the Fins are set to kick it off with the Seahawks in just a couple hours from Sun Life Stadium. Until then, take a look at what I think are the three things the Dolphins MUST do today to get a victory.


1. The offense must find rhythm. The last two weeks for this unit have been a disaster, as, not only have they not been able to run or pass the ball, they've just simply looked out of sync as well. Ryan Tannehill must rally the troops today, get some help from Reggie Bush, and find that rhythm again that led to three straight victories earlier in the year.

2. Create turnovers. This defense has been horrid in this area the last few weeks, forcing ZERO turnovers since the Jets game in October. They must find a way to change this today, and that means putting pressure on Russell Wilson, forcing bad throws, and putting helmets on the football when Marshawn Lynch carries it. This unit must win this game today for the Miami Dolphins, and it starts with creating some turnovers.

3. Come out of the gates firing. This team has been lazy at the beginning of games the last two weeks, falling behind to both Tennessee and Buffalo. If the Fins can come out firing today, and build a little lead early on, then they can start to put some pressure on the rookie QB, and good things will come from there. Whether it's a big offensive, defensive, or special teams play, somebody must spark a light early on today.

PREDICTION

It's tough to foresee what Dolphins team we're going to get today. The defense seemed to stabilize last week against Buffalo, and should have success today against a very young Seattle offense. I think the real matchup today will be when the Fins have the ball, because you better believe Ryan Tannehill will be tested by the ferocious Seattle defense. The 'Hawks traveled as far as you can go distance wise for an NFL game today, so Miami will have a huge advantage there. However, until the Fins break this losing streak, I can't predict a win. Gotta see it to believe it.

Final: Seahawks 26 Dolphins 19


Check back in before game time for any last minute news, including the inactives. And, as always, follow the live blog throughout the day.

Go Fins!

Week 12 in the NFL: picks and predictions

Rapid fire picks, still on vacation. Lets do it.

Last week's record: 11-2

Overall record: 93-56-1


Chicago

Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

Indianapolis

Denver

Atlanta

Jacksonville

San Diego

New Orleans

St. Louis

NY Giants

Carolina


Remember to check back tomorrow for all your Miami Dolphins pregame coverage, including my prediction. And, as always, follow the live blog throughout the game.

Until then, Go Fins!

A thankful dose of Thanksgiving Day picks

Before I get to the picks I'd like to first wish everyone a happy thanksgiving and, of course, a thank you to all who read this blog!

Now, the good stuff.

Houston @ Detroit: Matt Shaub had a record day last week against a very bad Jacksonville defense. Unfortunately, this Detroit defense is a tad better, and I think the Lions need this one more. Give me Detroit.

Washington @ Dallas: RGIII was nearly perfect a week ago, but lets be honest, the Cowboys aren't the Eagles. Give me Dallas in a good one.

New England @ N.Y. Jets: No Gronk? No problem. Give me the Patriots.


No Dolphin news to report today, as the players have the full day off. They welcome in the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday afternoon in a battle of rookie quarterbacks. Again, have a very happy thanksgiving, eat all you can, and, as always...

Go Fins!

Dolphins waive veteran WR Gaffney

The Dolphins have waived veteran WR Jabar Gaffney to make room for TE Kyle Miller.

Gaffney caught four passes for 68 yards in three games for the Dolphins.

My guess is this move is to bring in younger players for a rebuilding team. Gaffney is a "progress stopper" on a team like this.

More to come.

Week 11 in the NFL: Picks and predictions

Dolphins are done for the week, so we're going to have the rapid fire edition of this week's picks.  Lets go.


Last week's record:  10-2-1

Overall record:  82-54-1


Carolina over Tampa Bay

Dallas over Cleveland

Green Bay over Detroit

Houston over Jacksonville

Atlanta over Arizona

Cincinnati over Kansas City

Washington over Philadelphia

St. Louis over N.Y. Jets

New Orleans over Oakland

Denver over San Diego

New England over Indianapolis

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

San Francisco over Chicago

Dolphins drop third straight, lose to Bills 19-14

Tannehill and company tried to rally, but the Fins drop their third in a row 19-14.

Tannehill hit Davone Bess for a two yard TD to bring Miami within five, but after getting the ball back twice with under two minutes to play, Tannehill threw two interceptions to seal the deal.

The first was a great diving grab by Bills CB Jarius Byrd. The second came on the final drive when Tannehill just tried to make something happen and forced a pass to Bess.

The Fins are now 4-6.

Oh vey.

Bills lead Fins 19-7 after third quarter

This may be the worst offensive performance I've seen out of the Dolphins in a long, long time.

Ryan Tannehill has done nothing.

Reggie Bush has seven carries for ZERO yards.

Dan Carpenter missed a 50 yard field goal.

Pathetic performance tonight from the offense.

To the fourth.

Bills lead Fins 19-7 at halftime

The Dolphins are lucky to be in this game.

The offense has been pathetic. They haven't scored a TD in the last 8 quarters, and have been out scored 66-13 in that time span.

Ryan Tannehill just doesn't look like the same tonight. He's been tentative, and inaccurate at times. The play calling has also been poor, as has Reggie Bush, who has 4 carries for -3 yards...against the league's second worst run defense.

Speaking of defense, the Fins have bent, but not yet broke, giving up four field goals in the first half. The Bills are clearly picking on Nolan Carroll, as he's been flagged three times for pass interference.

If the Fins don't figure it out offensively, then expect this lead to hold in the second half.

Yikes.

To the third.

Bills lead Dolphins 13-7 after first quarter

Up and down first quarter for the Fins. After a 3-out to begin the game, Buffalo returned the ensuing punt 80 yards to put the Bills up 7-0.

After a Brian Hartline fumble at midfield, Ryan Lindell kicked the Bills to a 10-0 lead, only to have Marcus Thigpen return the following kickoff 96 yards for a Fins TD.

Lindell would add another field goal at the end of the quarter.

13-7 Bills. Tannehill and company with the ball to begin the second.

Let's go there now.

Dolphins, Bills ready to kickoff first primetime meeting since '84; the inactives

They are about an hour away from kickoff in Buffalo, where it's expected to be in the mid 30's at kickoff, but an otherwise nice night.  This will be the first primetime meeting between these two in nearly 30 years.

The inactives for the Fins are QB Pat Devlin, WR Jabar Gaffney, OT Will Yeatman, DT Tony McDaniel, TE Michael Egnew, TE Jeron Mastrud.

For the Bills:  QB Tarvaris Jackson, RB Fred Jackson, CB Aaron Williams, OLB Kirk Morrison, OT Thomas Welch, DE Chris Kelsay, DE Mark Anderson.

The Fins are in their aqua jersey's tonight and white pants.  The Bills are in their white jersey's and blue pants.  The Dolphins have not won a regular season game in their aqua jersey's since 2009 against the Jets, so lets hope that changes tonight.

Follow the blog, and Go Fins!

Gameday: Who has the edge PLUS prediction

It's gameday (night?) as the Fins and Bills are set to kickoff at around 8:20 from Ralph Wilson Stadium on the NFL Network.  This is an absolute must win for the Dolphins as they are still hanging around in the AFC playoff picture, but that will end with a loss tonight.  Kickoff is about two hours away from chilly Buffalo, so until then, take a look at who has the edge in tonight's game.  Enjoy.


When the Dolphins run the ball:  Reggie Bush has got to get back on track today.  He was held to four carries against the Titans, and was benched for most of the first half after fumbling early on.  The Bills pose the leagues 31st ranked rush defense, giving up nearly 164 yards a game, so if the Fins are to reestablish a run game that hasn't been a threat since week three against the Jets, then tonight is the perfect time to do it. EDGE:  Dolphins

When the Bills run the ball:  Most would think this to be a clear cut Dolphins advantage, however, C.J. Spiller scares me.  He's elusive, he's quick, he's tough to catch, and if you don't tackle him early, he'll beat you every time.  This scares me because this is exactly the kind of running back Chris Johnson is, and he ran up and down the field on this "juggernaut" of a run defense the Fins claim to have.  I want to give the edge to Miami here, but if they don't figure out how to contain and tackle, it could be a long night for the Fins.  EDGE:  Even

When the Dolphins pass the  ball:  This is a big game for Ryan Tannehill.  The rookie QB is coming off a disastrous three interception performance a week ago, and needs a solid game here to show he can bounce back and adjust.  The Bills pass defense ranks 21st in the league, giving up 246 yards a game through the air, so Tannehill should  have opportunities for success throughout the night.  The one big question mark I have in this one is the offensive line, and more specifically, the battle between rookie Jonathan Martin, and pro bowler Mario Williams.  This will be the matchup to watch throughout the evening, and could be the difference maker in the game.  EDGE:  Even

When the Bills pass the ball:  Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a typical Ryan Fitzpatrick year, throwing for a lot of yards, a lot of TD's, and a lot of INT's.  The thing that scares me about this matchup though is the fact that Fitzpatrick can run, and, as I've mentioned before, the Fins don't matchup well with mobile QB's (check Andrew Luck and Jake Locker).  The Dolphins front seven must be disciplined around the edges, but also put pressure on Fitzpatrick early and often to force those bad interceptions he tends to throw.  The secondary, especially Sean Smith, needs to have a bounce back performance tonight after two weeks of mediocrity, and with Fitzpatrick, they could either look really good, or really bad.  EDGE:  Even


PREDICTION

I expect the Fins to come out of the gates firing in this one, as they've expressed all week that they're ready to get the taste of Sunday's loss out of their mouths.  The offense hasn't scored a TD in six quarters, so the pressure will be on them early to get things going in the right direction.  Defensively, the Dolphins must tackle better, especially with a RB like C.J. Spiller, and the front line must put pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick throughout the game.  I expect the Fins to win this game, but, at the same time, I expected them to win on Sunday as well.  Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.  I can't pick them tonight, not until they prove me wrong.

Final:  Dolphins 23 Bills 24


Kickoff is right around the corner, so come back soon to check in on any last minute updates, including tonght's inactives.  And, as always, follow the live, quarter-by-quarter, blog of the game.

Until then, Go Fins!

Miami Dolphins must do this to get back to winning ways...

1.  They must constantly put pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Cameron Wake has been absent for the last two weeks, and it has exposed some serious holes in this Miami Dolphins defense.  It's allowed QB's plenty of time to throw, or run, or basically do whatever they wish.  It's showed that, when Wake isn't on his game, nobody can step up and apply any pressure.  Jared Odrick hasn't done anything.  Olivier Vernon hasn't. Randy Starks hasn't.  Paul Soliai hasn't.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a very good QB when he has time to throw- just look at his game last week- however, he's also shown that, if he feels any heat at all, he'll make bad decision after bad decision.  The Dolphins front line, including Cam Wake, must not let Fitzpatrick get comfortable back there, or it will be a huge problem tomorrow.

2.  They must tackle better.  These last two games have heavily exposed the Fins weakness with two things.  Number one, they struggle against mobile QB's.  Andrew Luck and Jake Locker both made huge plays with their feet, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will be no different.

Number two, with how good their tackling was early on in the season, it has seriously regressed in recent weeks.  This was never more evident than in the first half of last week's "game," when Jake Locker dropped back to pass, fell down for a good three seconds, got up untouched, broke a tackle, and ran twenty yards down the middle of the field.   This cannot, CANNOT, happen again tomorrow.  C.J. Spiller and Ryan Fitzpatrick must be taken down when given the chance, because, as we've seen before, if the Fins whiff on any tackles, than it's off to the races.

3.  They must not turn the ball over.  This will absolutely be the difference in this ballgame, I can personally guarantee that.  In the five games the Fins have lost, Ryan Tannehill has turned the ball over in four of them.  The rookie will have all eyes on him tomorrow night, especially after his performance on Sunday, and he must rebound with the poise and good decision making he displayed in all of October.

The turnovers don't stop with Tannehill though.  Reggie Bush has been the hot topic in Miami this week after his benching following Sunday's first quarter fumble.  While I don't completely agree with Philbin's decision, I do see where he's coming from.  He doesn't like sloppy football!  He doesn't like fumbles!  He's made this abundantly clear from the get-go, and he made an example out of it with Reggie Bush.  Offensively, Miami must learn from this tomorrow, because any turnovers in this game would be a disaster.

4.  They must create turnovers on defense.  During their three game winning streak, the defense was a turnover machine.  They intercepted and recovered a fumble in Cincinnati.  They recovered a fumble against the Rams.  They created turnovers in New York in every which way possible.  But the last two weeks?  Nothing.  As I said earlier, Ryan Fitzpatrick is turnover prone, and if the Fins are to get back to .500, they must expose that early and often.  Turnover will be huge in this game for Miami, especially on the road, in the cold, when momentum will be hard to come by.  The defense must step up in this department.

5.  The offensive game plan must improve.  What I saw last week was just not the team I was used to seeing all year long.  They didn't run the ball, or even try for that matter.  They didn't roll Tannehill out of the pocket, which is his clear strength as a QB. Everything that they did so well offensively during that three game winning streak was absent for all four quarters against the Titans.  OC Mike Sherman must focus a bulk of the game plan around Reggie Bush, not only because he's a game changer, but because he's your best offensive weapon.  I expect Bush to see anywhere from 15-25 carries tomorrow, especially against the a Bills defense that ranks 31st against the run, giving up nearly 164 yards per game.

6.  They must convert short yardage third downs (and third downs period).  Joe Philbin is clearly not happy about the Fins performance in this category over the last couple weeks, nor is Mike Sherman, and I don't blame them.  Third and one in the NFL must be converted nearly every single time if you want to win, and the Fins just haven't been getting it done lately.  The offensive line has been getting beat, receivers have been dropping passes, running backs have been getting stuffed, and Ryan Tannehill has been getting sacked.  Third down is the most important down in football, and when you don't convert, especially when you only need one or two yards, it is a huge momentum boost for the other team, and a huge demoralizer for yours.

7.  The defense must get off the field on third downs.  It's simple, when you let teams convert 50% or higher of their third downs, you're not going to win.  During their winning streak, teams were converting less than 35% of third downs against the Dolphins.  The last two weeks?  Over or near 50%. Enough said.


Thats all for now.  Remember to check in tomorrow for the pre-game coverage, my pick, and any last minute news from Buffalo.  And, as always, follow the live blog during the game, you know the drill.

Adios.

Thursday night battle with Bills will define Miami Dolphins season

Nobody saw that coming.

Not me, not you, not the analysts, and certainly not the Miami Dolphins.

Nobody saw three Ryan Tannehill interceptions.  Nobody saw a Reggie Bush benching. Nobody saw a 24-3 halftime deficit.  And two weeks ago, nobody saw the Dolphins at 4-5 going into this game on Thursday night.

However, this is where the 2012 Miami Dolphins stand right now.  Two games out of the division race,  two games out of the wildcard race, and currently on a two game losing streak that, just a short while ago, seemed unthinkable.

What's that old saying?  “We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand.”

Yeah, lets go with that.

This game will define who these Miami Dolphins really are.  Up to this point, this group- this young, rebuilding group- has yet to face any adversity.  They've been this season's cinderella; they were relavent again, making a playoff push that not even the brightest pundits could foresee, and everybody, including myself, bit.

They had a rookie QB who didn't play like one.  A defense that not even Barry Sanders could run on.  A coach who was the second coming of Don Shula.

For the first time in a long, long time, the Miami Dolphins were a threat in the AFC.

And then, in the span of three looooooong hours on Sunday, the football Gods, in Lucy-like fashion, yanked the football away right as we were about to kick it.  And in a season filled with so many positives, just like that, adversity finally found its way to South Florida.

But it's no longer about what happened, or why.  Not on a short week like this with the Buffalo Bills a mere 48 hours away.

It's now about how they respond.

In a season filled with so many big games, so many positives, it's the way the Miami Dolphins respond on Thursday night, following a route of epic proportions, that will truly define this 2012 season.

The way Ryan Tannehill plays following his worst professional performance.  The way Reggie Bush plays following a two quarter timeout.  The way this once prideful defense responds to giving up over 100 yards on the ground to a single rusher for the first time in over a year.  The way this coaching staff responds to a game-plan on Sunday that, quite frankly, left you scratching your head.

For the first time all year, these Miami Dolphins are faced with adversity.  

And they'll be on the national stage, under the lights and on the road, to face it.

That three game winning streak was nice, so was that 4-3 record.  But the cards have changed now.

How the Miami Dolphins play their new hand will truly define their 2012 season.

Titans hand Dolphins worse loss in over a decade with a dominating 37-3 win

Ouch.

Ryan Tannehill had one of those "rookie games" he'd avoided for most of the year today.

He was intercepted three times and never really got anything going offensively. However, there are bigger problems the Fins must address after the last two weeks.

The defense simply cannot get off the field on third down. Tennessee converted 8-17 third down attempts. That's horrid.

The offense, adversely, cannot stay on the field. Tannehill and company went 2-13 today on third downs. That too is horrid.

Another issue that Miami must correct is the turnovers. They committed four of them today. The Titans scored off each one.

How about that once great run defense? Chris Johnson ran for over 100 yards today, and was the first rusher to do so against Miami since week two of last season.

Discipline. The Fins just don't have it, and they haven't for a couple weeks now. Holding calls and personal fouls led to seven Miami penalties today for 67 yards. It got so bad that Richie Incognito was benched at one point after a costly personal foul.

Ryan Tannehill will be fine. The kid had a bad today, but he was also playing from a huge deficit the entire game. All rookies go through growing pains, it happens.

However, things must turn around quickly as the Fins will suit up again in just four days in Buffalo. And they will be coming off their worst loss in 12 years. Yikes.

It's gonna be a looooong four days.

More to come.

Titans routing Fins 31-3

It's gotten so bad that I'm now rooting for Chris Johnson to score as many TD's as possible for my fantasy team.

That's bad.

Tennessee has dominated in every aspect of this game. Offensively, defensively, special teams, coaching, turnovers, third down conversions, etc..

You name it, they've dominated in it.

31-3, and they're driving.

To the fourth, gracefully.

Titans pummeling Dolphins 24-3 at halftime

Wow.

Three turnovers have led to 17 of the 24 Titans points, two of those Ryan Tannehill interceptions.

Offensively, the Fins have done nothing. In fact, their best player, Reggie Bush, hasn't been in the game since his fumble in the first quarter.

Defensively, the tackling has been poor, but they haven't been put in the best situations by the turnover prone offense.

24-3. Holy smokes. It will take a Ryan Tannehill miracle to claw back into this one.

To the third.

Titans dominating ugly Fins 14-0 after 1st quarter

This has been by far the worst quarter of football the Dolphins have played since week 1 at Houston.

Chris Johnson has 50 yards rushing already, including a 19 yard TD.

Jake Locker has beat the Fins on the ground and through the air, hooking up with Kendall Wright for a nine yard TD.

Reggie Bush has fumbled. The Fins have looked bad, folks. This is their biggest deficit since that Houston game.

Can they get it together?

To the 2nd.

Dolphins, Titans ready to go from sunny Sun Life Stadium; the inactives

It is a beautiful day at Sun Life Stadium as the Fins and Titans are about 45 minutes away from kickoff.

Today is a near must win for the Dolphins if they want to keep pace in the AFC East, and the wildcard picture for that matter.

The inactive players are Pat Devlin, Anderson Russell, Will Yeatman, Michael Egnew, Rishard Matthews, and Jeron Mastrud.

Tony McDaniel will play today after missing last week's game.

The Fins are in all white today. The Titans are in the baby blue tops and dark blue pants.

The live blog starts after the first quarter, so follow along.

Last, but not least, Go Fins!

Gameday: Who has the edge? PLUS prediction

It's gameday here at the Dolphinsider, as the Fins and Titans get ready to kick things off from Sun Life Stadium .  Until then, take a look at who I think has the edge in today's matchup, followed by my prediction.  Enjoy.


When the Dolphins pass the ball:  The Titans pose the league's 27th ranked passing defense, giving up nearly 275 yard a game, while the Fins boast the league's 20th ranked passing offense.  However, I believe Ryan Tannehill and company hold a clear edge in this category, especially with the way Tannehill has played in the last five weeks.  He hasn't turned the ball over since OT in Arizona, and has had a QB rating of above 90 in each of the last four games.  Brian Hartline came back to life last week, catching seven passes, and I don't see any reason for a setback today.  The Fins offense should put up a lot of points today, and I see Ryan Tannehill being a big contributor in that.  EDGE:  Dolphins

When the Titans pass the ball:  Jake Locker will make his first start in nearly a month today after suffering a shoulder injury in week four.  This could be both positive and negative for the Fins defense. Locker, when healthy, could put up big numbers.  Look at his week three numbers against a very good Detroit defense- 378 yards, two TD's, and 35 rushing yards.  Those are big numbers in both the passing and running game for Locker, which could be a problem for the Fins.  They struggled last week against a young, mobile QB in Andrew Luck, and, while I don't see them looking quite as bad today, I wouldn't be surprised to see Locker put up good numbers.  There is a chance that the young QB could be rusty coming off a month of inactivity, so that does bode well for Miami.  However, the secondary must be cautious today.  EDGE:  Even

When the Dolphins run the ball:  This is where the Dolphins must, MUST, expose this Titans defense today.  Tennessee ranks near the bottom of the league, 29th, in stopping the run, while the Fins rank 13th in running the ball, putting up nearly 112 yards a game.  Reggie Bush has shown sparks in the last few weeks of breaking the big, game changing run, but hasn't quite pulled it off yet.  I think that could change today.  Ryan Tannehill is 4-0 when he attempts 30 passes or fewer in a game, and he's 0-4 when he attempts more than 30 passes.  This is a direct reflection of the running game.  If Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas can get it going today against a very, very shaky Titans run defense, and take the pressure of young Tannehill, than the Fins could literally run away with this one.  EDGE:  Dolphins

When the Titans run the ball:  The Fins defense seems to be getting things back on track after a poor week six performance against the Rams, but I expect it to be tested today.  Chris Johnson has rebounded from a shaky start to the season and seems to be closing in on 1,000 yards after a string of solid games on the ground.  Tackling will be critical today for the Fins, as Johnson is most dangerous when he gets out in space.  Cam Wake and Jared Odrick will also be relied on heavily to keep outside containment on the front line, as Johnson is known for bouncing outside for the big gain.  This will be a true test for both "CJ2k" and the Fins defense, and the winner of this matchup could very well determine the winner in this game.  EDGE:  Even

Special Teams:  Is there a better team special teams wise right now than the Miami Dolphins?  In the past two weeks they've recovered an onside kick, blocked two field goals, a punt, and, if not for an iffy penalty call, returned a big punt last week against the Colts.  Marcus Thigpen has proven very reliable as a punt returner, and Olivier Vernon has been spectacular on the punt and field goal teams, blocking kicks and scoring touchdowns left and right.  The Dolphins have turned into one of the premier teams in the league on special teams, and I expect that to continue today.  EDGE: Dolphins


PREDICTION

This is a big rebound day for the Miami Dolphins.  They have a huge week ahead of them starting with the Titans, and could set themselves up nicely for a postseason push starting today and going into Buffalo on Thursday.  The run offense and defense will be the key to a win today, as Chris Johnson is coming in hot after a good month of running the football, and Reggie Bush is looking to continue his push to 1,000 yards rushing against a mediocre Titans defense.  If the Fins can run the ball, stop the run, and have Ryan Tannehill continue his smart play, then they could once again move over .500 after today's game.

Final:  Titans 16 Dolphins 27


Remember to check back in right before game time today for all the last minute news, including the inactive list for the Miami Dolphins, and don't forget to follow the live, quarter-by-quarter, blog of today's game.

Until then, Go Fins!

Week 10 in the NFL: Picks and predictions

Another big week in the NFL, lets get to it.

Last week's record:  6-7 (yikes)

Overall record:  71-53


Denver @ Carolina:  Big win last week for Cam Newton and company in Washington, while the Broncos continued their winning ways in Cincinnati.  While I could see an upset here by Carolina, I don't think that defense can contain Peyton Manning, and based on that I'll take the Broncos.

NY Giants @ Cincinnati:  The Bengals need this one to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, as they've lost four in a row now, and sit at 3-5 in a very competitive AFC North. The Giants are coming off a tough loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and need a rebound game themselves to keep their NFC East lead relatively comfortable.  I think they get it tomorrow, and get back on track with a big road victory.  Give me the Giants.

Detroit @ Minnesota:  Watch out, here come the Lions.  They've won two in a row, three of their last four, and sit at 4-4 after a horrid start to the year.  The Vikings, on the other hand, are coming off a loss out in Seattle and lead the Lions by only a game in the NFC North.  I think that Vikings defense proves to be too much for Matt Stafford, and Christian Ponder does what he does best- give the ball to Adrian Peterson- to give the Vikings a much needed home win.

Oakland @ Baltimore:  Carson Palmer nearly pulled off the comeback last week against Tampa Bay, however, the veteran QB just throws too many costly interceptions.  I don't see that changing on the road against a veteran defense like the Ravens, so I'll take Baltimore in another grind it out type win.

Buffalo @ New England:  Pats are just playing good football.  Buffalo, however, is not. Patriots.

San Diego @ Tampa Bay:  I like this game.  Both teams sit at 4-4, and both are coming off wins in week nine.  In a coin-toss of a game, I like Josh Freeman and Doug Martin to keep playing well and lead the Bucs over .500 for the first time since week one.

Atlanta @ New Orleans:  The Saints need this win to keep their season alive, while the Falcons need it to keep their dreams of perfection alive.  I said it last week and I'll say it again, do not count out the Saints.  I like them in this one at home, and I like them to sneak their way back into the NFC playoff picture. Give me the Saints.

NY Jets @ Seattle:  The Seahawks just keep winning games, don't they?  Russell Wilson is making smart decisions, and not turning the ball over, while that defense and running game does the rest.  A Jets upset here wouldn't surprise me, especially coming off a bye, but I don't see it against a 4th ranked Seahawks defense.  Give me Seattle.

Dallas @ Philadelphia:  There's a lot at stake in this one, and that's not even counting the game.  Andy Reid is fighting for his job, as is Michael Vick, as is Tony Romo, as is Jason Garrett, and we're only half way through the season!  In a game filled with the dramatics, I like the Cowboys to come out on top, based solely on the fact that the Eagles offensive line looked terrible against New Orleans, and, unless I'm missing something, nothing's changed in the last six days.  Give me the Cowboys.

St. Louis @ San Francisco:  49ers.  Too much defense for San Fran, too little offense for the Rams.  Next.

Houston @ Chicago:  Game of the week (year?) here in Chicago as the Bears and Texans both come in at 7-1, and both have looked dominant along the way.  Both defenses have been sensational, both offenses have been good, and both look like a sure lock for the postseason.  However, something tells me Jay Cutler is due for an ugly performance, and J.J. Watt could be just the man to make that happen.  Give me the Texans in a statement win on Sunday night.

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh:  Really Monday Night Football?  This is what you picked to represent your week ten game?  The Chiefs haven't lead this year in regulation, while the Steelers are, well, just leaps and bounds the better team.  Give me Pittsburgh in a laugher.


Remember to check back in tomorrow for all your Miami Dolphins pre-game coverage, including my prediction, as the Fins get ready to kick it off with the Titans at 1:00 from Sun Life Stadium.  And don't forget to check out the live, quarter-by-quarter, blog of all of tomorrow's action.

Until then, adios, and Go Fins!

Dolphins running game must quit the vanishing act; other notes

The Dolphins were back at it today in Davie as they get ready to welcome in the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at Sun Life Stadium.  This will be the Fins first home game in nearly a month after a bye week, followed by back to back road games after that October 14th win against the Rams.

As I touched on earlier this week, the Dolphins have a huge, albeit daunting, opportunity in front of them over the next eight days, as not only do they play host to the Titans on Sunday, but they travel to Buffalo four days later to take on the Bills.

These are two winnable games for Miami- I expect them to be favored in both- but the Fins must reestablish their once dominant running game if they want a chance at a clean sweep.  The numbers say it all:

Weeks 1-4: 152.5 rush yards per game.

Weeks 5-9:  71.2 rush yards per game.

That, folks, is a huge drop off in the span of 5 weeks, and it was especially disappointing in last weeks loss to Indianapolis because the Colts rank 24th against the rush.  Yes, you can put some of the blame on the health of Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, but lets be honest, Reggie has been pretty healthy all year with the exception of the Arizona game.

Some of the blame will go on the offensive line, and rightfully so.  Some of the blame will go on the offensive play calling by Mike Sherman.  I don't care who's at fault- I think it could be a collective group effort- but it needs to be addressed, something Joe Philbin has acknowledged, and turned around, something he's also acknowledged.

I think the next two games could be the perfect opportunity to do this.

Tennessee ranks 29th in stopping the run, giving up nearly 142 yards a game on the ground.  The Dolphins must, MUST, expose this on Sunday, and they must do it early and often.

The Bills are even worse against the run, giving up nearly 170 yards a game on the ground.  Thats good for 30th in the league.  If you remember to the last time these two teams met last December, Reggie Bush ran for a career high 203 yards and had a career long 76 yard TD run in the process.

Neither of these team can stop the run.  Both rank near the bottom of the league against it, and both are vulnerable right now.  If the Miami Dolphins are to regain their once dominant run game, something they must do if they want to continue to play meaningful games, then these next eight days could be just the kickstart they need.


Other notes:

• LB Koa Misi did not practice on Wednesday.  He suffered an undisclosed injury during the third quarter of Sunday's game, but came back in after a few plays.

• CB Richard Marshall was the only other player not to practice today as he continues to fight off a back injury.  Marshall has not played since Sept 30th against the Jets and I don't figure him to play on Sunday, or next Thursday for that matter.

• QB Ryan Tannehill practiced with a brace on his left knee, just as he did all of last week.

What they're saying (Courtesy of the South Florida Sun Sentinel):

• "We told the guys today 'we have to take the practice to the games better,'" Joe Philbin said about practice not transferring to games.

• Joe Philbin said Ryan Tannehill hasn't exceeded his expectations. "We have high expectations for the quarterback position."

• Reggie Bush said Jake long still "great player." Said on his TD run Long "made a huge, key block."

• Reggie Bush on Terry Bradshaw: "I don't think there's an ounce of racism in his body."

• "This is the point when teams start to separate themselves and make that playoff push," Reggie Bush said.

• "We've got to get the run game greased up again," Richie Incognito said.

• "We've done some really good things in the run game, but we've stalled at times," Jake Long said.

• "We have to get back to playing good, sound football. The playoffs will take care of themselves," Richie Incognito said.

Thats it for now, until next time, adios.

Next ten days could make latest Dolphins loss a memory

Everything will be okay.

Yes, this latest loss was nothing short of heartbreaking.  With every Andrew Luck pass, every third down conversion, and every wide open Colts receiver, your frustration grew.  I know, believe me, I know, mine did too.

But, before you jump, step back from the ledge for just a minute, and look at the next ten days for the Miami Dolphins.

Because the next week and a half offers up a golden opportunity for this young group.

Two games in the span of five days.  Some may see that as daunting, I, however, see it as a 6-4 record by next Friday morning.  I see it as a chance to position ourselves for a meaningful final six weeks of the season.

I see it as a quick fix to a fan base that, quite frankly, may be more bipolar than Brandon Marshall

Too far?  Don't think so.

On Saturday night this team was transformed.  Sean Smith was a pro bowl corner. Jake Long was a hall of fame tackle.  Ryan Tannehill was far better than Andrew Luck.

Sunday night?

Bench Smith, let Long go, Tannehill's good, but not great.  We're doomed.  Mail it in. This season's over.

I get it, I really do, but we're only halfway through a season in which these Dolphins have come farther than any other Fins team has come in a decade.  And, despite what some may be feeling today, the 2012 Miami Dolphins are nowhere near ready to be counted out.

At 4-4 they sit only one game out of a wildcard spot, and one game out of first in the division!  And that's with two games remaining against the almighty New England Patriots.  Yet, because the Fins lost their first game in over a month, to a hot team, with a hot QB, playing for a coach battling cancer, on the road, this season is lost.

Everybody just slow down.

Yes, this loss was a reality check for the Miami Dolphins.  Some serious holes were exposed on both sides of the football.

The secondary is the clear weakness of this team.  It may be able to hold its own against Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford, but a great QB (Yes, I'm a believer now) will expose them in the most frustrating of ways.

The running game is not as good as we once thought it was.  A lot of this blame will go on the offensive line, and rightfully so, but regardless, it needs to get better.

Speaking of the offensive line, besides Mike Pouncey, it was awful yesterday.  No, I don't believe Jake Long is having a drop off season, he's too good for that.  I think, as Joe Philbin mentioned yesterday, there may be one or two technique things Long must fix.  And, let's be honest, folks, he got beat by a hall of fame defensive end in Dwight Freeney, it's happened to everybody who's ever gone up against him.

But these are all things that can be fixed.  In years past its been poor QB play that has been the downfall of the season, but fortunately, that's not the case this time.

Which is why I implore you to look ahead before you call it quits on these Miami Dolphins.  They've got two games in the next ten days- Tennessee on Sunday and at Buffalo next Thursday night- and those are two teams that may be just what this Miami Dolphins team needs right now.  Both are struggling this season, neither has Andrew Luck, and both are in the midst of losing streaks.

So before you jump, take a step back and realize that, while yesterday's loss may have been a step back for this Miami Dolphins team, the next ten days could be two giant steps forward.

Because 6-4 by next Friday morning will have you all right back on board.

And it'll make this latest loss nothing more than a mere glitch in an otherwise special season.  

The key contributors to a 23-20 loss in Indy

I'm going to make this quick and painless so I can take the rest of the night off.

1.  Third down defense.  I've never seen anything like that today, and I've watched my fair share of football games.  13-19.  That's what the Colts did on third down today against this (formally) second ranked defense on third down.  That's nearly 70%.  That, folks, is atrocious.  Think that's bad, how about this stat- of those 13 conversions, six of them were on attempts of ten yards or more.  If you can't get off the field, you're not going to win games, it's that simple.

2.  The secondary.  Sean Smith was bad today.  He was beat all day long, and it was no more evident than on a 31 yard TD strike to T.Y. Hilton in the third quarter.  Smith had a chance to make us all forget about his day, when he hauled in a would be interception in Colts territory late in the fourth quarter, however, Smith would eventually drop the ball.  Colts receivers were WIDE open all day long, on every down, in every quarter, on every play.  The secondary was terrible today.

3.  The defensive line.  Andrew Luck had all day to throw, I'm not kidding.  The rookie rarely had any pressure on him, with the exception of a Cam Wake strip sack in the third quarter.  Besides that, he had a clean pocket all day and exposed the Fins defense whenever he wanted.  Again, just not good enough.

4.  The offensive line.  Awful.  Ryan Tannehill is lucky he got out of this game healthy, because the rookie was on his back all day long.  Jake Long may have played his worst game as a pro, giving up at least one sack (the official count has not come out yet), getting beat on the edge throughout the game, and getting called for a couple holding penalties.  It doesn't stop there, however, as the run blocking was equally as bad.  Reggie Bush, with the exception of one run, was stuffed all day, as was Daniel Thomas, and that's coming from a defense ranked 27th against the run.

5.  The penalties.  8 penalties for 79 yards.  Enough said here.


This was a game Miami should have very well won.  Even when trailing late in the fourth quarter by a field goal, the Fins had not one, but two chances to at least tie the game and came up short both times.  Ryan Tannehill was good today, but on that final drive his accuracy was not.  He missed an open Davone Bess and an open Daniel Thomas on back to back plays.  That's not the reason the Fins lost this game, however.  The defense did not come out to play today, plain and simple.  The secondary was bad.  The pressure was bad.  And the third down defense gave absolutely, unequivocally the worst performance I've seen in a long, long time.

This next three games just got a lot more important for the Miami Dolphins.

Adios.

Andrew Luck defeats the Dolphins 23-20

Defensively, it simply was not good enough today.

Andrew Luck carved, and that's putting it nicely, up the Dolphins secondary. He broke the rookie record for passing yards with 433 yards, breaking Cam Newtons record from last season.

The Colts offense also converted nearly every third down, against a defense that ranked 3rd in stopping third down conversions.

Offensively, Ryan Tannehill was excellent, but was constantly pressured throughout the day. The offensive line was terrible, especially Jake Long.

Penalties were also a huge problem today for Miami.

The Fins now move to 4-4 on the season and face a huge November now if they want to stay in the playoff race.

Colts retake lead 20-17 after three quarters

The Dolphins cannot get off the field on 3rd down as the Colts have converted 9-13 third downs.

This is not good.

Andrew Luck hit T.Y. Hilton on a long 36 yard TD pass to give the Colts a 20-17 lead late in the third quarter

Can Ryan Tannehill respond? He's got the Fins driving as the quarter ends.

To the fourth we go.

Fins lead Colts 17-13 after exciting first half ends

This game has been everything as advertised and more. Ryan Tannehill hit Charles Clay for a 31 yard TD to give the Fins a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter.

After a Colts FG, Reggie Bush would reel off an acrobatic 18 yard TD run to put the Fins up 17-10.

The Colts would hit a 47 yard field goal right before the half to cut the lead to 17-13.

Both QB's have been outstanding. Tannehill is 10-14, for 158 yards and a TD.

Luck is 19-28, for a career high 273 yards, and a TD.

Miami must slow down Luck in the second half. He's had ALL DAY to throw on every drop back, and Cameron Wake must fix that.

Adversely, Ryan Tannehill is getting hit way to much in this game. Jake Long has not played well, and must protect Tannehill better in the second half.

On to the third we go.

Colts lead Fins 7-3 after first quarter

Andrew Luck has been superb. He's evaded blitzes, kept plays alive, and moved the ball on third down.

Following a Dolphins field goal, Luck led the Colts down the field and hit Reggie Wayne on third and goal in the back of the endzone to take a 7-3 lead.

Ryan Tannehill has looked sharp, as has Brian Hartline. Reggie Bush must get going, and the Fins must put more pressure on Luck.

The Fins are driving as we speak, so stay tuned.

To the 2nd.

Tannehill, Fins ready to go; the inactives

Ryan Tannehill will start today. The rookie went out early this morning and went through a pre-game warmup in which he proved to the medical and coaching staff the he could play.

Let the Luck vs Tannehill talk resume.

The other Dolphin inactives are: Tony McDaniel, Pat Devlin, Richard Marshall, Josh Kaddu, Will Yeatman, Michael Egnew, and Anderson Russell.

Brian Hartline will play today despite being listed as questionable all week with a groin injury.

The Fins are in all white today, with the Colts in their blue and white uniforms.

Follow the live, quarter by quarter, blog throughout the game.

Until then, Go Fins!

Gameday: Five keys to a Dolphins victory PLUS prediction

It is gameday here at the Dolphinsider as the Fins and Colts are just over three hours away from kicking off a pivotal AFC matchup from Indianapolis.  Until then, check out what I think are five keys to a Miami Dolphins win today.


1.  Take advantage of the Colts run defense.  This is far and away the number one key to a Fins win today.  Indianapolis ranks 27th in the league against the run, giving up nearly 140 yards per game on the ground.  This is where Miami must turn its focus to today, as, despite a month of poor running, they still rank 11th on the ground.  Reggie Bush showed sparks last week of returning to his old self, mainly because the veteran is healthier than he's been in weeks, and he must build on that today.  If the the Fins can get over 100 yards on the ground, then they will win this game, I'll say it right now.

2.  Don't forget about Andrew Luck's legs.  The number one overall pick has been great this season through the air, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards through the first eight weeks of the season.  But, it's Lucks uncanny ability to keep plays alive with his legs that has made him so successful.  The Fins must counter this today with disciplined play on the defensive side of the ball.  That includes keeping containment on the outside with Cameron Wake and Jared Odrick, and having linebackers Karlos Dansby, Kevin Burnett, and Koa Misi keeping on eye on him at all times.  Containing Luck on the ground will be huge today for the Dolphins.

3.  Tight End containment.  The Fins did a good job of this last week against the Jets' Dustin Keller, and must not let up today.  Andrew Luck leans on Colby Fleener and Dwayne Allen down the middle of the field, especially on third downs.  Luckily for Miami, Fleener is out today with a should injury, but don't discount Allen.  He has 17 receptions this season for 174 yards and two TD's, and you figure that he'll see more targets today than he has all season with Fleener sidelined.  The Dolphins must not forget about Allen, or it will be a major problem throughout the day.

4.  Protect Ryan Tannehill (or Matt Moore).  I've said it all week- I expect Ryan Tannehill to start today.  The kid practiced on Wednesday and Thursday on a limited basis, but took nearly all the first team snaps on Thursday.  Barring something unexpected happening to Tannehill before the game, I expect the rookie to play today. But, if that is the case, it will be imperative that his jersey stays clean throughout the day, because one bad hit to the knee could be a disaster for the Dolphins.  Regardless of who the QB is, however, time to throw in the pocket will be key, because even though they're old, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney can still make plays, and if they control the line of scrimmage then things can go wrong quickly.

5.  Don't let Reggie Wayne beat you, Sean Smith.  The Dolphins fourth year corner has played at a pro bowl level this season, containing receivers like Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Santonio Holmes, and Larry Fitzgerald.  Today will be no different for Smith, as Reggie Wayne will be the man across from him for the majority of the game. Wayne has had a sensational season under new QB Andrew Luck, hauling in 54 passes, 757 yards, and two TD's with the rookie QB at the helm.  Smith must continue his high level of play and keep Wayne at bay throughout the day, because if Wayne gets free, him and Luck will get into a rhythm, and that could mean a long day for the Fins defense.


PREDICTION

This one will be a fun game throughout, as both these teams are young, hungry, and currently holding down wildcard spots in the AFC.  Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck should have success today (or Matt Moore), but I expect the Fins to take advantage of a shaky Colts run defense and have a lot of success on the ground.  Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas will see plenty of action in this one, and should also see plenty of holes, more than they've seen in weeks.  If the Fins can run the ball effectively and continue their stout defense, especially on the line, then I think Miami can be staring at a 5-3 record heading into week 10- something nobody saw coming two months ago.

Final: Dolphins 24 Colts 20


Check back later for a full pre-game report, including an update on Ryan Tannehill and the inactive list for today's game.  And don't forget to follow the live, quarter-by-quarter, blog of today's game.

Until then, Go Fins!

Week nine in the NFL: Picks and predictions

There are only two, TWO, games this week in the NFL where both teams are over .500. One of them features the Giants and Steelers, the other?  Miami and Indianapolis. Who woulda thunk it?

Lets go.

Last week's record:  8-5

Overall record:  65-46


Baltimore @ Cleveland:  The Ravens are coming off a thrashing in Houston followed by a bye week, think they're going to come out a little angry?  I do, and that'll be too much for rookie Brandon Weeden, Ray Lewis or not.  Give me the Ravens.

Arizona @ Green Bay:  So much for that 4-0 start for the Cards, huh?  They've dropped four in a row since that OT win in week four against Miami, and have looked lost in the process.  The Packers, on the other hand, have only gotten stronger since their 2-3 start, and much of that has to do with the lights out play by Aaron Rodgers.  I think that continues this week, and I'll take the Pack at home.

Buffalo @ Houston:  Both teams are coming off their bye week, but thats about the only thing these two have in common.  The Texans are the far superior team, and even though that Bills offense could keep this one close, I don't see them pulling off the upset.  Give me the Texans.

Chicago @ Tennessee:  This Chicago Bears defense already has SIX turnovers returned for touchdowns this season.  Thats already more than the 1985 Bears defense had, and we're only halfway through the season!  Give me the Bears to keep rolling in this one over the Titans.

Detroit @ Jacksonville:  The Lions rallied last week against Seattle to stay alive in the competitive NFC North, and seem to be getting somewhat back on track after a horrid start to the season.  From here on out every game is crucial for them, and I don't sense a Maurice Jones Drew-less Jaguars team posing much of a threat.  I'll take Detroit.

Carolina @ Washington:  Last years' phenom, and the now slumping, Cam Newton visits the present phenom in RGIII.  Sounds like a fun game to me.  The Panthers were expected to be playoff contenders coming into the season, but in losing six of their first seven games, they're anything but that. The Redskins, however, still have playoff aspirations, and I see RGIII and company going into the bye week with a win.  Give me Washington.

Denver @ Cincinnati:  Peyton Manning has been sensational this season, and the old-timer seems to be getting better every week.  However, the Bengals are coming off a bye week and are in danger of falling out of the AFC North race with another loss.  This one is a coin flip for me, but I just think Cincinnati needs it more than Denver, and I'm taking the Bengals in a mini upset.

Tampa Bay @ Oakland:  The Bucs are coming off a big time Thursday night win last week in Minnesota, due in large part to rookie sensation Doug Martin, who's averaging over four yards a carry.  The Raiders are coming off back to back wins and are still very much alive in the AFC West.  Carson Palmer has quietly put together a solid season, as has RB Darren McFadden, and the two are leading the way on that Raider offense.  I like them to keep that up this week at home, and move to 4-4 at the halfway point.

Minnesota @ Seattle:  I like this game, mainly because both teams are very similar to me.  Both rely on a solid running game and a strong defense to win games, and so far, it's worked.  The Vikings come in at 5-3, while the Seahawks boast a 4-4 record, and both are very much alive in a wide open NFC wildcard race.  However, the Seahawks have something Minnesota doesn't- the twelfth man- and based on that, I'm taking the Hawks in a good one.

Pittsburgh @ NY Giants:  No shortage for story lines in this one, as you have the battle of the 2004 1st round QB's In Eli Manning and Big Ben; the Steelers flying in just hours before kickoff, and the Giants playing for a city devastated by Hurricane Sandy.  This one will be good to say the least.  That Pittsburgh defense will pose problems all day for Eli Manning and Victor Cruz, as they rank 2nd overall in the league, and 1st against the pass.  However, in my experience, you don't go against Eli at home, especially in the wake of the events earlier this week, and based on that, I'll take the Giants in a close, close one.

Dallas @ Atlanta:  The Falcons are all that stands between the '72 Dolphins and their annual champagne party, as they cruised in Philadelphia last week to move to 7-0 on the season.  The Cowboys, on the other hand, have been anything but perfect, as QB Tony Romo is coming off a four interception performance last week, and is sitting on a seat hotter than ever right now.  However, Romo has had success against the Falcons, putting up 589 yards and 5 touchdowns in two career games against Atlanta, and I like the Cowboys to upset the Falcons on Sunday night.  Gulp.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans:  Speaking of hot seats, does it get any hotter than Andy Reids/Michael Vicks right now?  The Eagles are coming off not one, not two, but three straight losses, and are possibly one more bad Michael Vick game away from having a new man behind center.  However, the Saints haven't faired much better, as they're coming off a disastrous performance in Denver last Sunday night and may just have the worst defense I've ever seen.  I know this one's in New Orleans, and I know it's a primetime game on the big stage, but something tells me Michael Vick isn't quite done yet, and I'm going to take the Eagles in a season saving win on the road.  Gulp, again.


Remember to check back in tomorrow morning for all your Dolphins pre-game coverage as they get ready to take on Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts in a huge week nine battle from Indianapolis.  And don't forget to follow the live, quarter-by-quarter, blog starting after tomorrow's 1:05 kickoff.

Until then, adios, and Go Fins!


UPDATE:  Ryan Tannehill will be a game-time decision.  My guess?  He's gonna go, but the Dolphins haven't officially said one way or the other.  

With Fins and Colts ahead of schedule, Sunday silly with story lines

This wasn't supposed to be a big game, not this year, no way.  This game wasn't supposed to have playoff implications, not in a million years.  This was supposed to be a game geared towards the future, towards next year, but not this year, not this January.

Ryan Tannehill wasn't supposed to start this year, and he definitely wasn't supposed to do well.  The Dolphins weren't supposed to have four wins already by November- that was supposed to be their final tally come January.  Same goes for the Colts.  They were supposed to be in a Peyton Manning hangover, not an Andrew Luck buzz.

This game was meant to be meaningless!  One, maybe two wins tops were all these teams were supposed to have at this point.  They shouldn't be holding playoff spots today; they should be holding down the cellar.

The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts haven't arrived yet by any means, but boy, are they ahead of schedule.

And that may just be the understatement of the year.

If the playoffs started today, these two teams, scratch that, these two rookie QB led teams, would represent the AFC's fifth and sixth seed in the playoffs.  Think about that for a second; just let that marinate.  If you saw this coming, and I mean honestly saw this coming, then I want to talk to you, because we could make some serious money in the future.

All of a sudden, this preseason snoozer of a game will have everybody wide awake on Sunday.  There are story lines every which way you look.  Andrew Luck vs Ryan Tannehill (and I include this one because I expect Tannehill to play as of right now), for starters, will be the battle within the war, not only on Sunday, but for years to come. What both Luck and Tannehill have done this year has been nothing short of sensational.

Both have taken over teams coming off losing seasons (and in Tannehill's case, a losing decade), and have them both in the playoffs right now, playing at a higher level then most, including myself, expected.  Both were drafted in the top ten, Luck at number one, and Tannehill at number eight, and both are legitimate rookie of the year candidates.

Intriguing story line, no?

How about this for a good one- Ryan Tannehill playing through a hyperextended knee and thigh bruise in a huge conference game.  Sort of Marino-esque, isn't it?  This kid has done it all this year.  He's taken control of an NFL offense after only 19 college starts.  He's gained the respect of the locker room, the coaching staff, and the entire league.  He's been smart, accurate, timely, and, most importantly, poised.  Now, assuming he plays Sunday, it's time to add on to that impressive first year resume. Play through the injury, do it effectively, and win a big game for your football team.  Do that, Mr. Tannehill, and you'll have something really special brewing in Miami.

But lets not forget about the biggest story line of all- the implications.  One team will leave this game at 5-3, a little more separated from the pack then when they got there, and in a relatively comfortable playoff position.  The other team will drop back to .500, and join the majority of the AFC at 4-4.

The winner of this game has an essential two game lead over the other if a tiebreaker scenario had to come into play in December, and with the way this year is going, and with the schedules these two face down the road, that's a distinct possibility.

The implications, playoff implications, in this one, are huge, folks.  Like I said earlier this year, if the Fins continue to win, and they have, then every game starting in November will grow in importance.

Well, it's November 1st.  Does this one sound important?

"We all know whats at stake," Matt Moore told the media yesterday.

Between Ryan Tannehill's injury, the battle with Andrew Luck, and the final two playoff spots, I'd say Moore is spot on.  There's plenty at stake in this one.

Welcome to the show, Miami and Indianapolis.

You're taking center stage this weekend.

Ready or not.