There's no sugar-coating it- the Dolphins have a MONUMENTAL task in-front of them on Sunday.
The Patriots are about as hot as you can get right now, winning five in a row, and scoring a ridiculous 219 points in the process (that's a 43.8 average). Tom Brady is playing like, well, Tom Brady, and their defense/special teams have scored EIGHT touchdowns this season; not to mention their plus 24 turnover ratio, which is easily best in the league.
So, can the Dolphins, who are currently a seven point underdog at home, pull off the nearly unthinkable upset? Sure they can, any given Sunday, right? A win on Sunday will seriously turn the Fins into January contenders, and will most certainly grab the attention of the rest of the league.
However, after looking back at past victories over the Patriots (it didn't take that long, they've only had two since 2008), it's become clear to me that Miami must follow some guidelines if they are to pull off the... "unpullable."
1) Keep that offense off the field! Think of it like this, the Fins must play defense on offense. Convert third downs, throw a couple of those 13-14 play drives together, and do not, DO NOT, turn the ball over. In the only two wins Miami has had over New England since 2008, they've won the time of possession and turnover battle each time. See a trend? Even the great Tom Brady can't beat you from the bench, can he?
2) Run, run, run the ball. This one goes hand in hand with number one, but only if you run it effectively. In previous years, that wouldn't be an issue against the Patriots defense, but that's not the case this year, as the unit ranks 9th against the run. In both the 2008 and 2009 wins, the Fins ran the ball for nearly 100 yards or more each time. In their "birth of the wildcat" win in 2008, the Fins ran wild, racking up over 200 yards on the ground. No, I don't expect that same production here by any means, but if the Fins are to control the ball and win the game, their running game must put up anywhere from 120-180 yards on the ground.
3) Create turnovers on defense. This will be a huge challenge on Sunday for the Miami Dolphins, as Tom Brady isn't exactly the giving type. The future hall of famer has been picked off three times in 421 attempts, THREE! In-fact, his career low is four in 2010, so he has a legitimate shot at topping that this season. The Fins have been working on fumbles all week in practice, and with good cause, because that may be their only chance at a turnover. Back in 2009 the Fins won the turnover battle, picking off Brady twice, with one of those coming in the endzone. They also won the turnover battle in their 2008 victory, however, I don't put too much into that because Brady was injured.
My point? If you want to beat the Patriots, you must find a way keep them off the field, and that means you must create turnovers. Gulp.
This will by far be the toughest task of the year for the Miami Dolphins, but the Patriots can be beat.
Like Joe Philbin said, it's just going to take a near perfect game to do it.
Keeping the patriots offense isnt enough. They score can score so quickly and efficiently that even if the phins control the clock for 35 minutes, Brady and the patriots can easily still hit the 30-point mark. The patriots have lost the possession time battle in each game during their 5-game win streak, yet they have still averaged 43.8pts/game as you mentioned. The last time the patriots won the possession time battle? The seattle seahawks game, in which they only scored 23 points and loss in heartbreaking fashion. In fact the patriots have won the possession battle in only 2 of their 8 wins, yet have won the possession battle in ALL THREE of its losses, therefore I'm not sure that will be enough to produce a winning formula. Having said that, the dolphins DO need to run the ball and run it with success. NE's secondary will give up yards, but they are very opportunistic. Miami has no chance if they have to rely on the rookie throwing 40-50 times against the number one defense when it comes to creating turnovers. Reggie Bush is the dolphins best weapon and needs to be productive for them to win. In wins, Bush has had 4 touchdowns, compared to only one touchdown in Miami's 6 losses. He is the dolphins key on the offensive side. My bet is that Belechick's main defensive gameplan will be to shut down bush.
ReplyDeleteHowever the biggest key of the game is cameron wake. With vollmer most likely out for the second straight week, wake needs to be able to put pressure on brady. I think in order for the dolphins to win, he will need at least 1 forced fumble and probably 3 sacks. I'm not confident the dolphins will be able to create pressure from other positions/players; wake NEEDs to have a great game.
now you have to guess who I am!....