It is gameday here at the Dolphinsider as the Fins and Colts are just over three hours away from kicking off a pivotal AFC matchup from Indianapolis. Until then, check out what I think are five keys to a Miami Dolphins win today.
1. Take advantage of the Colts run defense. This is far and away the number one key to a Fins win today. Indianapolis ranks 27th in the league against the run, giving up nearly 140 yards per game on the ground. This is where Miami must turn its focus to today, as, despite a month of poor running, they still rank 11th on the ground. Reggie Bush showed sparks last week of returning to his old self, mainly because the veteran is healthier than he's been in weeks, and he must build on that today. If the the Fins can get over 100 yards on the ground, then they will win this game, I'll say it right now.
2. Don't forget about Andrew Luck's legs. The number one overall pick has been great this season through the air, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards through the first eight weeks of the season. But, it's Lucks uncanny ability to keep plays alive with his legs that has made him so successful. The Fins must counter this today with disciplined play on the defensive side of the ball. That includes keeping containment on the outside with Cameron Wake and Jared Odrick, and having linebackers Karlos Dansby, Kevin Burnett, and Koa Misi keeping on eye on him at all times. Containing Luck on the ground will be huge today for the Dolphins.
3. Tight End containment. The Fins did a good job of this last week against the Jets' Dustin Keller, and must not let up today. Andrew Luck leans on Colby Fleener and Dwayne Allen down the middle of the field, especially on third downs. Luckily for Miami, Fleener is out today with a should injury, but don't discount Allen. He has 17 receptions this season for 174 yards and two TD's, and you figure that he'll see more targets today than he has all season with Fleener sidelined. The Dolphins must not forget about Allen, or it will be a major problem throughout the day.
4. Protect Ryan Tannehill (or Matt Moore). I've said it all week- I expect Ryan Tannehill to start today. The kid practiced on Wednesday and Thursday on a limited basis, but took nearly all the first team snaps on Thursday. Barring something unexpected happening to Tannehill before the game, I expect the rookie to play today. But, if that is the case, it will be imperative that his jersey stays clean throughout the day, because one bad hit to the knee could be a disaster for the Dolphins. Regardless of who the QB is, however, time to throw in the pocket will be key, because even though they're old, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney can still make plays, and if they control the line of scrimmage then things can go wrong quickly.
5. Don't let Reggie Wayne beat you, Sean Smith. The Dolphins fourth year corner has played at a pro bowl level this season, containing receivers like Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Santonio Holmes, and Larry Fitzgerald. Today will be no different for Smith, as Reggie Wayne will be the man across from him for the majority of the game. Wayne has had a sensational season under new QB Andrew Luck, hauling in 54 passes, 757 yards, and two TD's with the rookie QB at the helm. Smith must continue his high level of play and keep Wayne at bay throughout the day, because if Wayne gets free, him and Luck will get into a rhythm, and that could mean a long day for the Fins defense.
PREDICTION
This one will be a fun game throughout, as both these teams are young, hungry, and currently holding down wildcard spots in the AFC. Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck should have success today (or Matt Moore), but I expect the Fins to take advantage of a shaky Colts run defense and have a lot of success on the ground. Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas will see plenty of action in this one, and should also see plenty of holes, more than they've seen in weeks. If the Fins can run the ball effectively and continue their stout defense, especially on the line, then I think Miami can be staring at a 5-3 record heading into week 10- something nobody saw coming two months ago.
Final: Dolphins 24 Colts 20
Check back later for a full pre-game report, including an update on Ryan Tannehill and the inactive list for today's game. And don't forget to follow the live, quarter-by-quarter, blog of today's game.
Until then, Go Fins!
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