A Dolphins win and they are right in the playoff race along with Baltimore, Tennessee, and San Diego (unless, of course, both of them lose today, in which case it would just be Miami and Baltimore).
A Dolphins loss, and it's full blown panic time in South Florida. They'll drop to 5-7, a full game behind the Ravens (actually 2 because of tiebreakers), and jobs will certainly be on the line.
So yes, if EVER there was a must win football game, it's today.
Who has the edge?
So glad you asked!
When Miami passes the ball:
This is the area where the Fins MUST do work today. New York is ranked 21st against the pass, giving up nearly 250 yards a game. On top of that, Antonio Cromartie is battling a hip injury that's had him on the injury report all week long. Ryan Tannehill MUST take this game over today. He MUST put the team on his back, put points on the board, and keep this team in the playoff hunt. It's all on him.
Now, one thing I haven't mentioned here is the pass protection. The offensive line has stabilized as of late, and C Mike Pouncey is set to return after missing the past two games. However, this line is still suspect. Keeping Tannehill upright will be the difference in this game, and until I see them do that, I can't fully give the edge to Miami. EDGE: Even
[One more note on this: I spoke to one Miami Dolphins beat writer earlier this week, and asked him what his bold prediction was for the game. His response? "Matt Moore will play." Keeping Tannehill protected today will be CRUCIAL, folks]
When Miami runs the ball:
Why is it SO crucial for Tannehill to have success today? Well, he may be the offense. Especially when you're pitting the league's 26th ranked run offense against the top ranked run defense. On top of that, Daniel Thomas will miss today's game after tearing a ligament in his ankle last week. That means, behind Lamar Miller, you'll have rookie Mike Gillislee, and return man Marcus Thigpen.
As I said, it's all Tannehill. EDGE: Jets
When New York passes the ball:
Geno Smith hasn't completed more than 10 passes in a game in nearly a month. He's also thrown 10 INT's and only 1 TD in his past six games. His play has been SO bad that Rex Ryan felt compelled to tell the media this week that Smith would remain the starter.
This, combined with a Miami pass defense that is tied for 3rd in the league with 14 INT's, should make for a long day for the rookie QB. Get after him, force the bad throws, and take the ball away all day long. EDGE: Dolphins
When New York runs the ball:
This is the biggest mismatch for the Miami Dolphins. The Jets run offense ranks 8th in the NFL, averaging nearly 130 yards a game. The Dolphins run defense, usually the strength of this team, ranks 25th in the NFL, giving up 123 yards a game.
With Geno Smith struggling so mightily, and the Miami run defense being the achilles heel of this unit, expect Rex Ryan to come out of the gates running the football until Miami proves they can stop it.
If they don't, it could be a long, long day. EDGE: Jets
PREDICTION
Listen, the Miami Dolphins should win this football game.
Yes, they're on the road. Yes, it's cold (although it's really not). Yes, their offensive line is hanging on by a thread. But, at the end of the day, the Dolphins are the much better team, folks. Their QB is better. Their WR's are better. Their secondary is better. Their punter is better (don't laugh, it'll be a factor today). They're just the better team, plain and simple.
In a perfect world, I'd say Miami blows them out today. But, again, it's the Dolphins, and they don't blow teams out (8 of their 11 games this season have come down to the final possession). I say Ryan Tannehill goes into New York, and gets the job done when he absolutely NEEDS to. But hold your breath, because it'll probably come down to the 4th quarter.
Final: Dolphins 20 Jets 10
Alright folks, come back right before game time for any last minute news, including the inactives.
AND, as always, follow the quarter by quarter blog throughout the game.
2.5 hours.
GO FINS
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