(Courtesy of Dolphins.com)
It is gameday in South Beach, as the Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons are gearing up for their 4:05 kickoff from Sun Life Stadium.
This is the first time the Fins have been home (not counting preseason) since their December 23rd matchup with the Buffalo Bills.
I was at that game. It was a LONG time ago. A lot has changed with this team since then, and the expectations have never been higher heading into today's game. The Atlanta Falcons come in beat up, which has been a focal point this week around the NFL. However, this will still be a MONUMENTAL challenge for the young Miami Dolphins, as they look to move to 3-0 this season.
So, with that being said, who exactly has the edge in this ballgame?
I'm glad you asked. Because I happen to have an answer:
When the Dolphins run the ball: This will be an interesting matchup today for the Fins. Atlanta comes in ranked 8th against the rush, giving up only 73.5 yards per game. However, as I mentioned earlier, this is a beat up defense. LB Sean Weatherspoon is out, as is DE Kroy Biermann, so you have to think the running duo of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas will have better numbers today than there predecessors. Speaking of that duo, they only averaged a measly 3.7 yards per carry last week against a weak Indianapolis defense. While that was an improvement from week one (which isn't saying much), I still need to see more from these two to be sold on them. Edge: FALCONS
When the Falcons run the ball: Now this is a matchup that I LOVE, and no, it's not because Steven Jackson is out. Yes, that obviously adds to it, but, as I said earlier this week, I don't think Jackson would have posed that much of a threat today. I like this matchup for two reasons: One, this Fins run defense has something to prove, as they've been subpar through the first two weeks after dominating the run the last two years. Two, and most importantly, the Falcons just don't run the ball that much. They're a pass first (second, and third) offense, and only go to the run to keep defenses on their toes. I didn't expect Steven Jackson to have a big day, and I certainly don't expect Jason Snelling to have one. Edge: DOLPHINS
When the Dolphins pass the ball: The health of Ryan Tannehill has been somewhat of a storyline this week, as the QB is dealing with a bum throwing shoulder. However, the kid seems to be ready to go, as I expected him to be, and could be poised for a big day. Atlanta has been torched through the first two games, giving up nearly 350 yards a game through the air, good for third worst in the NFL. On top of that, CB Asante Samuel's status remains very much up in the air with a thigh injury. This, combined with the growth from Ryan Tannehill, and his growing chemistry with WR Mike Wallace, could point to a big day for the Fins passing game. Edge: DOLPHINS
When the Falcons pass the ball: Here's the matchup that will win, or lose, the game for the Miami Dolphins. Matt Ryan is right on the precipice of "elite" status, and WR Julio Jones is already there. This worries me from a Dolphins standpoint, even with Brent Grimes manning the corner. The real wild card here is the defensive front. Cameron Wake, Randy Starks, Jared Odrick, and Olivier Vernon/Dion Jordan MUST be ruthless in this game, from start to finish (and they should be, especially with OT Sam Baker out).
It doesn't stop with them, either. Expect Kevin Coyle to throw a number of blitzes at Matt Ryan, something he loves to do, and expect this to be the game changer. Matt Ryan LOVES to audible to screen passes (just look at the film), and if Ryan does this successfully today, then it could be a HUGE problem for this high risk/high reward style of defense Coyle runs. This matchup right here will be the difference in this game today, bank on it. Edge: EVEN
PREDICTION
I've gone back and forth on this one, something I rarely do with the Miami Dolphins. Usually I just know, much like last week. This game is different though. Atlanta is beat up, on both sides of the ball, and that gives Miami the advantage to an extent. However, as I said earlier this week, the fact that Matt Ryan and Julio Jones AREN'T those among the injured Falcons gives me a bad feeling. I picked the Fins to lose this game in my preseason predictions, and while I'm tempted to stand by that here, I'll opt to take the optimistic approach (something I do sparingly) and say they pull this one out by the SLIGHTEST of margins. I'm going out on limp here Joe Philbin, and going against my better judgement. Don't make me regret it!
Final: Falcons 24 Dolphins 30
Alright, game time is ALMOST here! The 2013 home opener is a mere six hours away, and the Fins and Falcons are getting ready to battle in South Beach. Come back just before kickoff for any last minute updates, including the full list of today's inactives.
And, as always, follow the live, quarter by quarter blog, starting at the end of the first quarter.
Until then..
GO FINS
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