The St. Louis Rams, at first sight, won't scare you defensively. With the exception of Cortland Finnegan, Chris Long, and perhaps James Laurinaitis, they're not a particularly well known team on the defensive side of the ball.
But I caution you to look twice.
They're tied for 7th in the NFL with 15 sacks. The other team with 15 sacks? The Miami Dolphins.
They're tied for 3rd with eight interceptions, three of which are by Cortland Finnegan. The Dolphins are tied for 5th with seven.
They only give up an average of 18 points a game, two less than the Miami Dolphins.
They give up an average of 218 passing yards a game, good enough for 12th in the league. The Fins give up an average of 282 yards a game through the air, which puts them near the bottom of the league.
My point? All the talk I've heard this week has been centered around this Fins defense, but in reality, these two teams are eerily similar in this case. In-fact, the Rams, 13th overall, actually rank ahead of Miami, 14th overall, in team defense.
So, based on that, this game, while many think could come down to the better defense, will actually be won or lost on the OFFENSIVE side of the ball. Which QB, Sam Bradford or Ryan Tannehill, will step up at the right times to put their teams' in position to win? Which offensive line will take control of the running lanes? Who's going to turn the ball over more?
While most think the defenses will decide this, I believe the offenses will. Can an unproven, yet talented, Sam Bradford take advantage of a shaky Miami secondary? Can Ryan Tannehill continue to build upon an impressive rookie season and not make that one mistake that turns the game?
The defenses in this game are two of the better units in the NFL, so I believe, in a way, they almost cancel each other out. The deciding factor will be which offense can separate itself.
Which brings to my second point- special teams. The last time the Fins were on this field, they lost in this category. Dan Carpenter missed two crucial field goals, and Tim Tebow sparked a Jets TD drive with a fake punt conversion. Neither of these teams are particularly great in the red zone, with the Fins scoring TD's on 53% of their trips, good for 15th, and the Rams only punch it in 36% of the time, good for 27th.
Combine that with the fact that both these defenses rank in or near the top ten (MIA-7th, STL-11th) in allowing TD's in the red zone, and you could have a game that comes down to field goals. Greg Zuerlein, the rookie kicker out of Missuri Western State, has kicked and made 13 field goals this year for the Rams. Dan Carpenter? Not so much. He's 6/10 this year in kicking field goals, and I fear this is the type of game that could once again come down to his leg.
Yikes.
While defense will play a tremendous role in this one, I believe the game will be won or lost with the offensive and special teams units, respectively.
Just some food for thought.
Other notes:
- Dolphins CB Richard Marshall (back) continues to be sidelined. Expect Nolan Carroll to start again.
- RB Daniel Thomas suffered another concussion last week in Cincinnati. His status for Sunday is unknown.
- WR Jabar Gaffney worked with the first team today at practice. He was inactive last week.
- Dolphins DT Randy Starks was named the AFC's defensive player of the week.
Until next time, adios.
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