Week 5 in the NFL: Picks and Predictions

Nice bounce back week last week, lets see if we can build some momentum here.

Last week's record:  10-4

Overall record:  34-25


New England @ Cincinnati:  If there was ever a Jekyll and Hyde team in the NFL, it would be the Cincinnati Bengals.  To beat the Green Bay Packers one week, then lose to the Cleveland Browns cannot be sitting well in Cincinnati, and now you get the 4-0 Patriots.  This game's a toss up for me, especially with an impressive win for Tom Brady and company last week, but I'll take the Bengals at home to get it done.

Detroit @ Green Bay:  That Lions offense is lethal, especially with Reggie Bush. However, they rarely win in Green Bay, and now they get Aaron Rodgers off a bye week. Give me the Packers at home.

Seattle @ Indianapolis:  Just a casual battle between two quarterback's who have fallen victim to Ryan Tannehill.  Just had to get that in there.  As for the game, I like Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to stay unbeaten here.  That defense could give Andrew Luck some fits.  Give me the Seahawks.

New Orleans @ Chicago:  Well, the Saints are pretty good, huh?  But can they do it on the road?  On the other hand, you have to wonder which Jay Cutler will show up for this game?  In another toss up type game, I'll take Brees and the Saints to keep rolling.

Philadelphia @ N.Y. Giants:  If the Giants were ever to get off the shnide, you'd have to think it's at home against a brutal Eagles defense.  However, I just can't pick them until they show me they remember how to win.  I'll take the Eagles.

Jacksonville @ St. Louis:  What's the point?  Rams.

Kansas City @ Tennessee:  This would have been a fun game to watch if Jake Locker was playing. Heck, I'd probably pick the Titans.  However, I've seen Ryan Fitzpatrick enough to know what kind of QB he is.  Give me the Chiefs on the road.

Carolina @ Arizona:  The Cardinals have two wins this season, and I have absolutely no idea if they're actually good or not.  They beat a Detroit team without Reggie Bush, and a Tampa Bay team with a rookie QB nowhere near ready for the NFL.  As for Carolina, their only win came against a winless Giants team.  So what do I do?  Take the home team.  Give me the Cardinals.

Denver @ Dallas:  My gut tells me to pick the upset here.  And I really, really want to. But my eyes tell me that Peyton Manning is on a different planet right now, and last time I checked, he's playing.  Therefore, my head tells me to go with Denver.  Give me the Broncos in a good one.

Houston @ San Francisco:  Even with a win against St. Louis, this 49ers team still has serious question marks.  However, they've had 10 days to prepare, while the Texans are coming off a devastating loss to Seattle.  Give me the 49ers at home.

San Diego @ Oakland:  Philip Rivers has unseated Matt Ryan on my fantasy team, and for good reason.  Have you seen the season he's having?  These Chargers are flying under the radar so far, but I don't see that lasting much longer.  They're for real, and should have no problems against an Oakland team whose only win came Jacksonville. Give me the Chargers.

N.Y. Jets @ Atlanta:  This is a MUST win for Matty Ice and the Atlanta Falcons.  Good thing they're playing Geno Smith, who leads the league in turnovers.  Give me the Falcons, big.


Alright, that'll do it for now.  I'll have my pre-game coverage for you starting tomorrow morning, including my prediction.  After that, make sure to check back before the game for any last minute news.  And, of course, don't forget to follow the quarter by quarter blog beginning after the first quarter.

This is a BIG TIME game for the Miami Dolphins, so don't miss any of the gameday coverage!

GO FINS

Despite Woes, Running Game will be Critical for Both Teams; other notes

Make no mistake about it, tomorrow's game against the Ravens will be HUGE.  As I stated earlier in the week, I believe it to be the biggest game on the schedule this season.

Why?

Well, for a couple reasons.  Number one, the Miami Dolphins are coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV.  They need to, as I wrote about earlier this week, RESPOND to that poor showing.

Number two, the difference between 3-2 and 4-1 may not seem like a lot, but it is, ESPECIALLY given how competitive the AFC is shaping up to be this season.

And, number three, this is a conference game, folks.  The loss against New Orleans may have looked bad, but it really won't matter come December.  This game will.  To have the head to head advantage over Baltimore for that last wild card spot will be HUGE.  Bank on it.

Now that we got that all cleared up, to the actual game itself.  Most of the focus this week has centered around Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill, and for good (or not so good) reason.  Both are coming off terrible performances in which they combined for NINE turnovers, and both will be looking to rebound strong tomorrow.

However, I don't believe this game will be won or loss solely based on the quarterback play.  Yes, if you read the headline than you know what I'm going to say next.

The running game, folks!  Let's not forget about this phase of the game, even though the rushing attempts for both Lamar Miller and Ray Rice would suggest both coaching staffs have.

Last week, the Baltimore Ravens gave the ball to Ray Rice FIVE times.  Yes, you read that right.  Meanwhile, they let Joe Flacco throw the ball 50 times, with five of those attempts going to the Buffalo Bills.

Against the Saints, Lamar Miller had enormous success in the first half,  running the ball 10 times for 57 yards and a TD.  However, Miami was playing catch up the entire second half, and Miller had only ONE carry in the final 30 minutes.

What do these stats tell me?

They tell me that running the football will be a HUGE point of emphasis tomorrow.

Expect Ray Rice to get the football early and often, especially with Joe Flacco coming off a five INT game.

Same goes for Lamar Miller.  Ryan Tannehill is coming off his worst performance of the season, Miller has been running the very ball effectively since his week one dud in Cleveland, and this Baltimore defense is mediocre against the run, giving up over 100 yards a game.  That recipe tells me we'll see a lot of Lamar Miller tomorrow.

Now, if both these teams try to establish the run like I expect them to, who does that favor?

That's a tricky question.  The stats would tell you Miami, but stats can be deceiving, as we all know.

The Dolphins rank 10th in run defense, giving up only 98.5 yards a game. Baltimore ranks 16th, giving up 106.8 yards per game. HOWEVER, Miami actually give up nearly a full yard more per rush than the Ravens do (3.5 to 4.2).

Another thing the stats won't tell you is this:

Ray Rice is the EXACT running back that Miami struggles with.  If you've followed me since the beginning, than you know what I'm talking about.  This defense handles the big, heavy, power running backs very well.

But the smaller, quicker, elusive backs?  Well, that's where they struggle.  And that's exactly what Ray Rice is.

On the other side of the ball, the stats would tell you that Lamar Miller should have success running the ball.  His average yard per carry this season is 4.6, which is right in line with his career average of 4.9,

However, I question his durability.  He's only carried the ball 46 times this year, which puts him right in the 10 carries per game range.  If Mike Sherman leans on his tomorrow, can Miller keep up?  If he can't, and you have to go to Daniel Thomas, this offense could struggle running the ball.

Don't think so?  Thomas has 25 carries this season for 70 yards.  That's under 3 yards a carry.

That's bad.

So, back to my original question.  Who exactly does it favor if both these teams try to establish the run?

Well, I'd say it could potentially favor both teams.

Which means they'd cancel each other out.

Which means I'm wrong about one thing I said earlier:

I guess this game WILL come down to quarterback play.

Don't they all?


OTHER NOTES


The final injury report came out yesterday.  Here it is:

Out: CB Dimitri Patterson (groin)

Questionable: DE Cameron Wake (knee), LB Jason Trusnik (ribs), Don Jones (elbow), WR Brandon Gibson (ankle)

Probable: DT Paul Soliai (knee), LB Dannell Ellerbe (knee), S Chris Clemons (glute), LB Koa Misi (shoulder), LB Jonathan Freeny (shoulder), CB Nolan Carroll (ankle)

My thoughts?  I expect Cameron Wake to play.  He participated in practice all week, spoke to the media, and reports have him looking much better than he did a week ago. However, with the bye week coming up, the coaching staff could very well take the conservative approach with Wake and sit him out one more week.  We'll see.

As for Brandon Gibson, I expect him to play as well.  This ankle injury is not new.  It's been a lingering injury for a couple weeks now, and Gibson has played well despite it. However, if Gibson doesn't play I still think Miami will be okay.  Rishard Matthews has been solid this season, catching every ball thrown to him, and he's got good chemistry with Ryan Tannehill.


Check back later today for your week 5 picks and predictions.  And, as always, come back tomorrow morning for all your pre-game Miami Dolphins coverage, and come back tomorrow afternoon for the live, quarter by quarter, blog starting at 1:05.

Until later...

GO FINS  

Response, Not Blowout, Will Define Miami Dolphins Season

It was midway through the third quarter during Monday night's debacle in New Orleans that a thought crossed my mind.

No, it wasn't whether or not the Dolphins would come back and win the game.  I, like most of the world, knew that falling behind three scores to a team like the Saints, in the Superdome, was as good as a death sentence.

No, it wasn't an angry thought, either.  I'm not angry about the loss, and nor should you be.  Miami isn't the first team to get embarrassed in New Orleans, and they certainly won't be the last.  As I stated earlier in the week, few teams can say they've beaten the Saints at home on Monday night.

The thought was this:

Next week's game just took on a whole new meaning.

And it has.

I'll even do you one better:

This game against the Baltimore Ravens will be the BIGGEST game on the 2013 schedule.

Not because it's a conference game against a potential wild card foe.  Not because they're the defending Super Bowl champions.  Not even because it would move Miami to 4-1 heading into the bye week.

But because of the message it will send, good or bad, to the rest of the league.

What's that message, exactly?

That this team is for real.  That their quarterback possesses something a lot of quarterbacks don't, a short-term memory.

And, most importantly, that the 2013 Miami Dolphins can do something that past teams simply couldn't do.  Something that held them back.  Something that separates the pretenders, from the contenders; the good teams from the great teams.

Respond.

How will Ryan Tannehill RESPOND after his worst game of the season?

How will Mike Wallace RESPOND after a game in which he dropped three passes?

How will the offensive line RESPOND after yet another sack fest?

How will the secondary RESPOND to the arial show put on by Drew Brees?

For the first time this season, the flaws have been exposed.  Flaws in Ryan Tannehill and his troubling sense of ball security.

Flaws in Mike Wallace and his lack of chemistry with Tannehill.

Flaws in the coaching staff and their inability to properly utilize Wallace.

Flaws in the secondary, the offensive line, and the pass rush.

You see, winning hid these flaws.  Take baseball, for instance.  If you have a great hitter and a great fielder on the bench, but can only play one, what do you do?  You stick the hitter in right field, hoping to hide him out there without it costing you the game.

If you win, nobody notices.  You're praised, worshipped, hailed, even.

But if you lose?  Well, everybody notices.  You're questioned, second-guessed, and doubted.  Fair or not, that's the harsh reality of sports.

As loud as the voices are when you win, they double in decibel when you lose.

These aren't new problems for the Miami Dolphins.  Ryan Tannehill fumbled and threw interceptions BEFORE Monday night. Mike Wallace looked lost BEFORE Monday night. The secondary struggled to cover Tight Ends BEFORE Monday night.

None of that mattered when the Miami Dolphins were 3-0.

But all of it matters now.

Joe Philbin summed it up best following the game:  "We're going to find out what kind of football team we have now."

People don't remember the loss.

They remember how you responded TO the loss.

Buckle up, South Florida.  Now the real fun begins.

Philbin: 'We're going to find out what kind of football team we have'

Joe Philbin hit the nail on the head following Monday night's 38-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints.  He didn't pass around blame, he didn't point fingers, he didn't yell, kick, or scream.  That's not the kind of coach he is.

He said exactly what I began saying mid-way through the third quarter, when it was clear this game was going to get ugly.

"We're going to find out what kind of football team we have."

You better believe it.

As I said earlier, for the first time this season, the Miami Dolphins will face adversity. Until now, it's been all ham and eggs in South Beach.

Ryan Tannehill had arrived.

The defense was dominant.

The offense was a force to be reckon with.

Joe Philbin was the next Don Shula.

Jeff Ireland was a shoe in for executive of the year.

Bring on the Patriots!  The AFC East is ours!

And then, with a couple big time Darren Sproles runs, a couple easy Drew Brees TD passes, and a couple Ryan Tannehill misfires, reality hit the Miami Dolphins.  A harsh, hard to swallow reality pill that the Dolphins, and their fanbase, haven't had to swallow yet this season.

Fortunately, the veteran leadership on this team seems to realize this as well.

"Makes me sick but I'm glad it only counts as 1... Can't get to high on wins or low on losses... Gonna get ready for Baltimore" - Brian Hartline.

"We have to move onto the next game." - Brent Grimes.

"Very tough loss tonight! it's not how you fall it's how you get up from the fall! Big game Sunday!"- Mike Pouncey.

Call me an optimist (although that be foolish), call me a homer, call me whatever you want, but I've always been a big believer in "well timed losses."  Losses that bring you down to earth.  Losses that you can learn from.  Losses that bring out a team's true identity.

We all knew this team wouldn't stay unbeaten forever.  Most of us, like myself, knew it would end tonight.  The Saints are an ELITE team.  The Dolphins are not.

However, that's by no means saying they're not a playoff team.  Whether they are or not still remains to be seen.

Let's not forget, this team is still playing with house money.  They sit at 3-1 through the first quarter of the season, a record that, a month ago, seemed like a reach for this team given their opening schedule.

And now, with a much needed bye week in sight, they get to go home and host a depleted Ravens team.

A 4-1 record heading into the bye week was ALWAYS a best case scenario for the Miami Dolphins.  The loss tonight didn't change that possibility.

In-fact, I think it strengthened it.  We now get to see how these Miami Dolphins RESPOND to adversity.  Better to figure that out now rather than later, no?

A win on Sunday, and all is well in South Beach.  It's all ham and eggs once again.

The first three weeks were nice.

But now, as Joe Philbin said, we're going to truly find out what kind of football team we have.

Buckle up.  Now the fun begins.

Fish Out Of Water: Fins drubbed by Saints, 38-17

And just like that, all the glory of the first three weeks is gone for the Miami Dolphins.

38-17.

A Monday Night drubbing handed down by the now 4-0 New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees was nearly perfect on the night. No, seriously. Look at his passer rating. 

The veteran threw for over 400 yards and four TD's en route to another stellar game.

Ryan Tannehill, on the other hand, had his worst game by far of the season.

Tannehill threw three INT's, and continued to get sacked at will as he was dropped four times by Rob Ryan's defense.

Tannehill's chemistry with Mike Wallace was also brought to the forefront in this game. And not in a good way.

Tannehill's 2nd INT of the night was a clear miscommunication between him and Wallace. The new WR stopped short on a crossing route over the middle, Tannehill didn't expect him too, and the result of the play was a turnover.

Speaking of turnovers, Tannehill committed four on the night, as he lost a fumble in the second quarter.

Lamar Miller and Charles Clay were the lone bright spots on offense. Miller averaged over six yards per carry and had a TD, while Clay had six catches and a TD as well.

Defensively, Miami was torched by Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and, of course, Drew Brees.

Graham had two TD's, as did Sproles.

Big questions now arise for the Miami Dolphins.

Can Tannehill and Wallace get on the same page?

Can the offensive line protect Tannehill? They've given up 19 sacks through FOUR games.

And, most importantly, can this team rebound at home against the Baltimore Ravens on a short week?

Adversity has hit South Beach for the first time this season. The Miami Dolphins are still in a good position at 3-1, but all of that changes with another performance like tonight next Sunday.

Until then, it's going to be a long week for the Miami Dolphins, both locally and nationally.

The true test has now begun. 

Saints lead Fins 35-10 after third quarter

Well, this is why I circled this game at the beginning of the season.

Drew Brees is elite.

And the Saints are too.

Brees had two TD's in the third quarter alone, and has four on the night. Two have gone to Jimmy Graham.

The Dolphin defense has been on their heels the entire game, and has been picked apart.

The offense has stalled. Tannehill has been sacked three times. He does, however, have the Fins driving as we speak.

Too little to late.

Saints lead turnover prone Dolphins 21-10 at half

What looked like a promising second quarter, ended in disaster.

Following a Lamar Miller TD and a Saints three and out, Miami took over with 2:14 left.

That's when Ryan Tannehill threw his third INT of the year on a jumped Brian Hartline slant route.

New Orleans would capitalize as Darren Sproles hauled in a Drew Brees TD pass.

Sproles, by the way, has dominated Miami thus far, accounting for over 100 total yards and TWO TD's.

Tannehill's INT was his second turnover of the game, as he fumbled earlier.

Both turnovers resulted in NO touchdowns.

Miami gets the ball to begin the second half.