What we speculated all week has been right- Lamar Miller will play today despite his shoulder sprain.
Now, we don't know the extent of Miller's role. I suspect he'll be limited, somewhere around the 8-12 touch mark. Even with him playing, expect a lot of Daniel Thomas and Damien Williams.
Here is the full inactive list for Miami:
LG Daryn Colledge, OT Jason Fox, DT Anthony Johnson, G Billy Turner, TE Dion Sims, LB Kelvin Sheppard, DE Terrence Fede.
And for the Lions:
Eric Ebron, Nick Fairley, Joe Fauria, Ryan Broyles, Larry Webster, Garrett Reynolds, Kellen Moore.
Yes, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush will play today. Big boy time for this defense.
I suspect the Dolphins will be in the all white uni's, while the Lions will be in the blue and silver. No confirmation on either of those yet.
Live blog starts after the first quarter.
Kickoff is right around 90 minutes away.
See you then.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Gameday: Five Keys to a Dolphins Win PLUS Prediction
Huge day today for the Miami Dolphins. They passed their first test last week in a 37-0 drubbing of the San Diego Chargers. As I wrote yesterday, today begins the first of two massive tests in the next four days.
How do they go to Detroit and defeat the six win Lions?
Glad you asked:
1. Prove your worth: The Miami defense has been getting a lot, and I mean a lot, of hype over the past week. As I told you yesterday, NFL Network even went as far as to call them a championship defense. Today, it's time to back that up. Keep the big plays to a minimum, put constant pressure on Matt Stafford, and contain Reggie Bush. Do it for 60 minutes, and prove you belong.
2. Stay hot: And what I mean by that is stay hot in the turnover game. Three picks last week, two the week before, two the week before that. Mix in a couple fumbles that I'm sure I'm forgetting, and you have a defense that's showing a knack for finding the football right now. That MUST continue today.
3. Step up: Lamar Miller will play today. However, he's going to be limited. There's no way around that. Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas MUST fill in for Miller. Without a legitimate running attack, you become one dimensional, and when you become one dimensional against the league's best defense, um, things don't end well. Williams and Thomas have to compensate for a less than 100% Lamar Miller today.
4. Stay hot, Part two: Who I'm talking to this time is Ryan Tannehill. The kid is in the midst of his best stretch of football right now. He's been accurate, deadly accurate, actually. He's been smart, he's been decisive, he's been a leader. Simply put, he's had the hot hand. Time to stay consistent today. If Tannehill can limit the bad plays, and stay accurate with the medium range throws, this offense should move.
5. Bounce back: With all that being said, Tannehill will get hit today. I don't care how solid your offensive line has been, when you're playing this front four, it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. Tannehill can't get rattled if and when he does take a hard hit. I've seen him get a little anxious in the past when the sacks start to pile up- i.e.. Buffalo- and this offense cannot afford that today. Bounce back, and lead this team to a win.
PREDICTION
I expect this to be a relatively low scoring game today. I don't see any team getting into the 30's, and I expect special teams to playa factor. Going on the road, against the best defense in the league, coming off a bye nonetheless, is no easy task. However, something just tells this Dolphins team is hot right now. The defense is playing with a chip on their shoulders. Ryan Tannehill is playing lights out. And, to be honest, I don't buy the whole "team coming off a bye week having the advantage" wise tale.
Are they under dogs? Absolutely. Would a loss shock me? Not in the least bit. But something just tells me to go with the hotter hand right now. And that's the Miami Dolphins.
Pick: Dolphins 20 Lions 17
Alright, big couple of hours ahead of us. Come back in a bit for the full inactive list, including any last minute news. THEN, come back throughout the game and follow the live blog.
2.5 hours.
Saturday, November 8, 2014
Week Ten in the NFL: Picks and predictions
20-6 over the past two weeks.... Enough said.
Last week's record: 10-2
Overall record: 84-41
Chiefs @ Bills: Any team that hasn’t thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver by week ten shouldn’t be a road favorite… that’s just one man’s opinion, though.
Pick: Bills 24 Chiefs 20
Cowboys @ Jaguars: Start Tony Romo, start Brandon Weeden, hell, start Quincy Carter even (wow, what a name drop), I don’t care. The fact of the matter is simple: Jaguars.
Pick: Cowboys 30 Jaguars 10
49ers @ Saints: Both these teams are 4-4…that’s why the NFL is great. Also, the Saints haven’t lost at home since 1947. I’m like 98% sure that’s accurate.
Pick: Saints 28 49ers 24
Titans @ Ravens: I read a report that said the Titans plan to play “angry” in the second half of the season. Um, ok. You do do, Tennessee. You do you.
Pick: Ravens 30 Titans 17
Steelers @ Jets: The Steelers are a 6.5 point favorite…. What? Hey Vegas, have you not watched Big Ben over the past two weeks? If, for some reason, he was the only Steelers player to make the trip, and had to play 1 versus 11 football, on both sides of the ball, for an entire 60 minutes… i’d still pick the Steelers to win the game. And I’d pick them to cover as well.
Pick: Steelers 38 Jets 9
Falcons @ Buccaneers: Does Lovie Smith flip a coin every week to decide his starting quarterback? Like, that’s the only possible explanation, right? Also… this game makes is yucky.
Pick: Falcons 23 Buccaneers 20
Broncos @ Raiders: Good lord.
Pick: Broncos 35 Raiders 14
Rams @ Cardinals: Carson Palmer>Austin Davis… Andre Ellington>Zac Stacy… Larry Fitzgerald>Brian Quick… I’ll let you play detective on this one.
Pick: Cardinals 27 Rams 24
Giants @ Seahawks: The Manning faces are going to be absolutely ridiculous during this one. Watching that offense is about as enjoyable as a prostate exam.
Pick: Seahawks 27 Giants 17
Bears @ Packers: Jay Cutler goes from a slightly above average quarterback to downright abysmal when he plays at Green Bay. Seriously, he’s been really, really bad there. Also, Aaron Rodgers is the man.
Pick: Packers 30 Bears 17
Panthers @ Eagles: HE’S BACK!!!!!! The man, the myth, and the legend have finally returned! I love me some Sanchise… it’s been way, way to long Mark. Welcome back to the show. Ps: Cam Newton’s competition % last week made me laugh out loud. Double Ps: what a terrible game to cap off a terrible weekend for the NFL.
Pick: Eagles 27 Panthers 23
Huge week for the Miami Dolphins. I said it earlier today and I'll say it again now.. These next two games, starting with tomorrow's, will define who these Miami Dolphins are, and just how far they're going.
Come back in the morning for all you pre-game coverage, including my pick. Then, coming back before the game for the full list of the inactives.
THEN come back throughout the game for updates on the live quarter by quarter, blog.
31 hours.
Next Four Days Will Provide Clearer Picture of Tannehill, Dolphins
Enjoy today. Savor today. Appreciate today.
That feeling you've had since Sunday evening? Remember it. Bask in it. Hold on to it for as long as you can.
Because when the clock strikes midnight, and today turns into tomorrow, everything changes.
Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins have been everywhere this week. From national television, to national sports talk radio, to features stories on front pages of the most well respected websites, everywhere you've turned the Dolphins have been there.
For the first time in a long time, this team is in the headlines for all the right reasons. No bullying scandals, no collapses, just a good, solid football team.
I must say, it's been a breath of fresh air. I've covered this team for a long time now, and nobody wants to see it end less then I do...
But make no mistake about it, starting tomorrow, and permeating all the way through to Thursday night, things are going to change. And come Friday morning, for better, or for worse, we will all have a much clearer, much more accurate picture of who these Miami Dolphins really are.
Going on the road, and playing the best defense in the league, coming off a bye week no less, is hard enough in itself. I believe this will be the greatest challenge these Dolphins have dealt with all year long.
But it doesn't stop there. In fact, it's only just the beginning. Four days later, Miami will host Buffalo on Thursday night in a game that will undoubtedly hold serious playoff ramifications. And let's not forget, these Dolphins haven't beaten the Bills since 2012.
Two games. Two fierce, unforgiving, top 10 defense. Two legitimate playoff contending teams.
Four days.
Now the real fun begins. Now we see if Ryan Tannehill has truly taken that next step. Now we see whether this defense is, what NFL Network called a "championship caliber" defense. Now we see just how good this offense line is.
Beating Oakland, and Chicago, and Jacksonville, and San Diego was all well and good. They were impressive wins. They were hard fought wins.
But they weren't playoff wins. Those wins didn't prove that this team is really ready to make a serious playoff run. Sorry, but they just didn't.
Oakland is winless. Chicago is a mess. Jacksonville has the most generous quarterback in the league. San Diego has the pass rush of a JV football team.
Nice wins? Sure. Absolutely. But playoff type wins? No. Not yet.
Beat the six win Detroit Lions on the road, then follow that up with a victory four days later against Buffalo, and then you're getting somewhere.
Put up a QB rating in the triple digits against these two defensive lines, and then you're in that next tier of quarterbacks.
Find a way to shut down Calvin Johnson, and Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate, and Matthew Stafford, and then you're truly a championship ready defense.
These next four days are exactly what those wins in September and October were for- to make this stretch meaningful. The third round of a major championship is referred to as "moving day." Its the day where the real, big time contenders separate from the pack and charge towards the front.
November, in the NFL, is the third round of a major championship.
Two games. Four days. With everything on the line. Moving day for the Miami Dolphins is about to begin.
Fall may be in the air today.
But starting tomorrow, winter is coming.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Tannehill the Key to Sunday's Game; other notes
I've looked at the Lions up and down, back and forth, in and out, all week long, and I've got to say, these two teams are EXTREMELY similar.
They both rely on a fierce, overwhelming pass rush. They both have explosive playmakers on offense. And they both are led by sometimes great, sometimes head-scratching quarterbacks.
Defensively, these two are damn near clones:
Miami ranks 3rd in total defense- 12th against the rush, and 2nd against the pass.
Detroit ranks 1st in total defense- 2nd against the rush and 5th against the pass.
The Dolphins are tied for 4th in total sacks with 25. The Lions have recorded 23 sacks, tied for 6th in the league.
The Miami secondary has recorded 9 interceptions. The Detroit secondary has also recorded 9 interceptions.
As you can see, these two defenses may very well cancel each other out on Sunday. So what happens then? Well, then you have to look at who has the better offense.
That's where the Miami Dolphins can win this football game.
The Dolphins offense ranks 11th in the league- 4th in rushing, and 19th in passing.
The Lions rank 20th in total offense- 30th in rushing, and 9th in passing.
I believe this game is going to go on the shoulders of Ryan Tannehill, and with the way the third year QB has played over the past five weeks, that shouldn't worry Dolphin fans. That should excite them.
Here are Tannehill's passer ratings since his near benching following week three:
4 Raiders 109.3 W, 38-14
6 Packers 83.3 L, 24-27
7 Bears 123.6 W, 27-14
8 Jaguars 73.3 W, 27-13
9 Chargers 125.6 W, 37-0
Over that time he's thrown 10 TD's to only 4 INT's, completed well over 60% of his passes, and had runs of over 40 yards each week.
Whether you choose to believe it or not, Ryan Tannehill is the better QB in this game. He's got the hot hand, folks. In fact, it's on fire- he's been the second best passer over the past month in the entire league, only behind Ben Roethlisberger.
Look, I realize the Lions own the 5th best pass defense in the league. But when you break it down, given the way Tannehill's been playing, I'd take my chances against that over their 2nd rated run defense, especially with a banged up Lamar Miller.
One more stat for you before I move on..
The Miami offensive line has given up 17 sacks this season, good for 12th in the league. The Detroit line has given up 24 sacks, which ranks them 27th.
The formula for the Dolphins in this one should be clear: Get after Matthew Stafford, and the statistics say you should, and ride Ryan Tannehill's hot right arm as much as you can. I understand the Dolphins like to run the football, and they're really, really good at it. But chances are it won't be there this week.
These two teams mirror each other in nearly every facet of the game.
If there is a loophole to be found, I believe it's in the passing game.
Time to see if the kid can stay hot.
OTHER NOTES
- The big piece of news out of Miami today had to do with 2015, as it was announced that not only will the Dolphins return to London next season, but it'll be against the New York Jets and will be considered a home game for the Dolphins.
I'm not happy about it, the Dolphins, I'm certain, are not happy about it, but I don't really care right now. It's 2014, and there's a HUGE game coming up. Who cares right now? That's something for another time, and another day.
- The second to final injury report came out today:
Dion Sims is the only player who did not participate in practice. He's still dealing with a toe injury and his status remains up in the air for Sunday's game.
Among the notables on the limited side were G Daryn Colledge and RB Lamar Miller. Colledge was listed as full participation yesterday and it seemed like he was ready to return this week after missing last week with back injury. However, it appears that he regressed today, as he was limited. If he can't go expect Dallas Thomas to once again fill in.
Miller is the more serious issue here. He is dealing with a shoulder sprain, and while he has said he'll play, one has to wonder how healthy he'll actually be. This is something to monitor closely. If Miller doesn't go, or, as I suspect, he goes but plays on a limited basis, look for Daniel Thomas and Damien Williams to split the snaps.
Three days.
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Miller Practicing Despite Shoulder Sprain; other notes
The Miami Dolphins returned to the field today for the first time since Sunday's 37-0 decapitation of the San Diego Chargers.
Well, most of them did.
Jimmy Wilson did not participate in the media portion of practice. He played last week for the first time since the Green Bay game due to a lingering hamstring issue, and one has to wonder if he's still not 100% healthy. With Michael Thomas out for the rest of the season with a chest injury, options are suddenly thin at the nickel cornerback position if Wilson can't go on Sunday. Jamar Taylor and Will Davis would essentially be the last two standing.
Dion Sims also did not practice today. He missed Sunday's game with a toe injury, and was in a walking boot for most of last week. The boot was off today, but Sims was still on the sidelines.
As for those who did practice, there were two big names who participated.
The first was Lamar Miller. Miller suffered a separated shoulder during the third quarter of Sunday's game, and did not return. Doctors confirmed the separation, and Miller has been listed as day-to-day. However, the running back said he expects to play against Detroit, and backed that up with his participation in today's practice. He was clearly not 100%, but it does appear he'll play Sunday.
With Knowshon Moreno already done for the season, Lamar Miller is critical to this offense, so I'd hold my breath for a while here and pray he doesn't injure this thing any further. Daniel Thomas and Damien Williams will split time if Miller cannot go.
Chris McCain also returned to practice today after missing Sunday's game, as did Daryn Colledge. Colledge was back working with the first team offense.
One more notable absence today was head coach Joe Philbin, who is back at home in Massachusetts to be with his family following the death of his father. DC Kevin Coyle has assumed the leadership role until Philbin returns Wednesday night.
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Dolphins rattle off third in a row with dominating 37-0 shutout
What a day. What a performance.
37-0.
This was easily the biggest win of the Joe Philbin/Ryan Tannehill era, and it wasn't even close.
This was a playoff performance from the Miami Dolphins. This was a national media attention grabbing performance.
From start to finish, the home team dominated.
Ryan Tannehill had a career day- something we're getting used to typing in South Florida.
He finished 24-34, for 288 yards and three touchdowns- each more impressive than the last.
His first went to Charles Clay, a beautiful touch pass behind three defenders in the
Next came a pump fake with a collapsing pocket, followed by a roll out pass on the run to a streaking Rishard Matthews.
The final came with a little help from Jarvis Landry, as the rookie receiver tip toed towards the endzone with the grace of a seasoned veteran.
All of that bookended a dominating defensive performance, headlined by not one, not two, but three interceptions- Two from Grimes and one from Reshad Jones.
Things got so out of hand Philip Rivers was pulled by the end of the third quarter.
The defensive line was overwhelming today, as I thought they might be.
Can Wake had a sack. Earl Mitchell had a sack. The SD run game? Non existent. In fact, the defense was so dominant that the Chargers were rarely close enough to even sniff midfield for most of the game.
This is Miami's 4th win in 5 games, and third in a row. They now sit at 5-3 with a tough trip to Detroit looming.
More to come.
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