Everything at stake for Miami Dolphins as season set to begin

Well, here we go.

No more build up.  No more predictions.  Gone are the days of starters only playing one half.

In less than 24 hours, the full NFL season will be upon us.  In less than 24 hours, the passes become real, the turnovers become costly, the wins make a season, and the losses break a season.

And, in less than 24 hours, the stakes for the Miami Dolphins raise significantly.  With every loss, panic.  With every win, Super Bowl.  Every Ryan Tannehill TD, and he's Marino.  Every INT, and he's Henne.

Every win, and Joe Philbin's the second coming of Don Shula.

Every loss, and he's a more boring Tony Sparano.

Every win keeps the Ireland household off the market.

Every loss, and the embattled GM is one step closer to the unemployment line.

Get the picture?  Starting tomorrow, what's at stake for the Miami Dolphins?

Everything.

You see, there are three players in this poker game otherwise known as the Miami Dolphins 2013 season:  Ryan Tannehill, Joe Philbin, and Jeff Ireland.  Yes, in that order.

I've said it time and time again, as Tannehill goes, so will the Miami Dolphins.  If Tannehill doesn't produce a winning season, if the sophomore QB doesn't thrust himself into the RGIII/Luck/Wilson conversation by season's end, then Philbin and Ireland are, to quote Breaking Bad, "going to Belize."

They're done.  Fired.  Gone.  "Old-Yellered" (yes, another Breaking Bad reference).  See it now?  These three guys are married to one another.  Much like Tony Sparano, Chad Henne, and Jeff Ireland were two years ago, and we all know how that turned out.

The difference here is, Ireland won't get a free pass this time.  His contract ends this year, and Stephen Ross has no intentions of extending it until he sees results.

Results from Tannehill.  Results from Philbin.  Starting tomorrow, Ireland gives up the drivers seat that he's kept warm since January.  He gives up the control that he's had since the clock hit all zero's in New England.

Now, all Ireland can do is watch.  Hope.  Pray.  Because his future is out of his hands for the next five months.  His future, his job, his life, really, is now in the hands of Ryan Tannehill.

Same can be said for Philbin.

Same can be said for the entire organization.

The Miami Dolphins went all in during the offseason.

And now, everything is at stake.

Game by game predictions (final edition): Weeks 13-17: @ Jets, @ Steelers, Patriots, @ Bills, Jets

Record after week 12: 6-5

All-time record against: 44-49-1


I'm not sure even the most talented psychic could tell you what the New York Jets will look like at this point in the season.  One has to assume that, barring an injury, Geno Smith will still be the starter, but beyond that I have no idea.  The only thing this team will do well this season is play defense, and that may very well keep them in their fair share of games.  But will it be enough in this one?  I don't see it.  Give me Tannehill and the Fins.  (Would be a classic Dolphins loss though... Gulp.)

Final: Dolphins 27 Jets 13

Record after week 13: 7-5

All-time record against: 9-12


The obvious story line here is Mike Wallace returning to Pittsburgh, and it'll be a fun one to follow if both these teams are in the playoff race, which I expect they will be.  Expect this to be another defensive struggle, and expect the field goal kickers to play a big part in this one.  I'm not sure why I get that feeling, but there's just something about Heinz Field in December and late game FG's that go together.  This is a big time game for the Miami Dolphins, especially if these two teams are battling for a wild card spot. Unfortunately, the mix of Ben Roethlisberger, December, and Heinz Field just doesn't give me a good feeling in this one.  I'll take Pittsburgh in a low scoring, high tension ballgame.

Final: Dolphins 16 Steelers 19

Record after week 14: 7-6

All-time record against: 49-43


With only three games left, I expect this to be a huge game for the Miami Dolphins.  I'm not saying it'll be a must win, but lets be honest, what December game usually isn't a must win?  The question now becomes, is this the game the Miami Dolphins FINALLY knock of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots?  Well, good a time as ever, right? There's no denying that fact that Tom Brady just doesn't play as well in Miami as he does in New England, just look at last year's game in South Florida, where the less talented Fins only lost by a score of 23-16.  Am I saying I see a Fins win here?  Not exactly.  I'm just saying it WOULDN'T surprise me, especially given the location.  As for my pick, well, everybody's a genius in September, right?

Final: Patriots 24 Dolphins 28

Record after week 15: 8-6

All-time record against: 57-40-1


Listen, Buffalo in December is NEVER a gimme, it's just not.  Should the Fins win this game?  Absolutely.  Could it be a trap game?  ABSOLUTELY.  Miami performed poorly last year in Buffalo, despite only losing 19-14, and this one worries me because I expect the stakes to be even higher in this one.  I'm going to give the Fins the "W," but I'd like to also stick a sign over this game saying "proceed with caution," because it's got trap written all over it.

Final: Dolphins 24 Bills 16

Record after week 16: 9-6

All-time record against: 44-49-1


Well, if the Fins truly are 9-6 heading into this game, then this should be on heck of a season finale, huh?  The Jets will be playing obvious spoilers, which can always be scary, but regardless, I expect Miami to win this game.  To be honest with you, the Fins could be 6-9 heading into this game and I'd still pick them with relative confidence. They're just the better football team, plain and simple.  Give me the Fins in a big season finale win.  Will it be their final game of the season?  Thats the real question here.

Final: Jets 13 Dolphins 30

Predicted final record: 10-6

Bold?  Possibly.

Expectations too high?  Maybe by one game, but if this team doesn't produce 9-10 wins this season then, as I've said before, it should be considered a FAILURE.  You don't go out and spend all the offseason money to go 8-8, folks, you just don't.  Am I saying this team HAS to make the playoffs this season?  No.  If they go 9-7, or 10-6 (although I expect 10 wins to get them in), and don't make the playoffs, then so be it.  Baby steps, Dolfans.  You haven't had a winning season in five years, 9-10 wins this year would be HUGE, playoffs or not.

So there you have it, our second annual week by week predictions series is in the books. As always, these predictions are subject to change on a weekly basis, as nobody, including myself, really knows what this Dolphin team is all about.  My final prediction though will remain the same, however.  I've set the bar at 9-10 wins for this team.  How they get there is up to them, just as long as they get there.

Come back tomorrow for a full day of Miami Dolphins coverage, concluding in my week one picks for each game.

Two. Days.

Game by game predictions: Weeks 10/11/12: @ Tampa Bay, San Diego, Carolina

Record after week 9: 4-4

All-time record against: 5-4


I love the Miami Dolphins in this football game, for a number of reasons.  Number one, they're coming off a Thursday night game, so they have an extended week of preparation.  Number two, it's a de-facto home game as it's in Florida.  Number three, Josh freeman isn't a world beater, and if the defense can contain Doug Martin (Big IF), they should dominate defensively.  Offensively, Ryan Tannehill could very well struggle going up against one of, if not the best, secondary's in the NFL, so expect a heavy dose of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas in this one.  This one will be a defensive struggle, no doubt about it, which means it'll come down to which QB can do more for their team. And I like Tannehill over Freeman.

Final: Dolphins 17 Buccaneers 13

Record after week 10: 5-4

All-time record against: 12-12


The Chargers are one of those teams that have a HUGE question mark over them.  They have severely underachieved over the past couple of years, but that was a Norv Turner led team.  With Turner out, and former Broncos DC Mike McCoy in, there is no telling how this team will do this season.  They have the QB to do big things, and, if healthy, they have a formidable RB in Ryan Matthews.  Defensively, they struggle against the run, but were one of the best against the pass a year ago.  HOWEVER, I'm a huge believer in the whole West coast teams struggling on the East coast theory, and this game has that written all over it.  In a back and forth affair, give me the Fins at home in a big time win.

Final: Chargers 24 Dolphins 27

Record after week 11: 6-4

All-time record against: 4-0


This one will be fun.  Both teams are considered dark horses this season, and both teams are similar in certain areas.  Two good defenses, two young QB's, and two teams who I expect to be very much in the playoff hunt at this point in the season.  The person who worries me here is, who else, Cam Newton.  The Fins have historically struggled against mobile QB's, just look at Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Colin Kaepernick last season, and I expect more of the same here with Newton.  Another thing that worries me is that Carolina defense.  They ranked in the top ten a year ago in points per game, allowing a measly 22.7, and were right around the top ten in both rushing and passing. The Fins may be undefeated against the Panthers in their four career meetings, but it'll be a tough task to keep that up here.

Final: Panthers 21 Dolphins 17


The Fins completed their FINAL practice before Sunday's opener this morning, and will be off to Cleveland soon.  Expect this prediction series to end either later today or tomorrow as it's time to focus on the Cleveland Browns.  Look for a flurry of articles tomorrow as the Fins are 48 hours away from KICKOFF, including what's at stake for the team this season.  And, as always, I'll have my week one full slate of picks for every game tomorrow night.

The NFL has BEGUN.

48 hours.

Game by game predictions: Weeks 7/8/9: Buffalo, @ New England, Cincinnati

Record after week 6: 3-2

All-time record against: 57-40-1


These are the games the Fins MUST win this year.  Rookie QB, rookie head coach, on the road, and mid October weather in Miami (for those that don't know, trust me, that's summer weather).  Recipe for a win, folks, and one that they need to get here with the Pats and Bengals looming.  Fins have the better QB, the better offense, and the better defense.  They get the "W" here.

Final: Bills 13 Dolphins 28

Record after week 7: 4-2

All-time record against: 50-45


The Patriots have had their issues, on, and off the field.  Aaron Hernandez is gone, Wes Welker is a Denver Bronco, and Rob Gronkowski has had more surgeries than Troy Aikman has had concussions. HOWEVER, there is still one major problem here- Tom Brady isn't hurt, or in jail, or on another team.  No, he's still behind center, and at home. Yikes.  I think the Fins keep it close, but I don't go against Brady and Belichick in their own house, I just don't do it.

Final: Dolphins 20 Patriots 31

Record after week 8: 4-3

All-time record against: 15-5


Halloween night football?  Yes please.  Thursday night game here, as the Bengals and Fins do battle from Miami.  This one is a tough one to predict.  Cincinnati is the sexy pick this season to make a SB run, and with a different Baltimore team and a Pittsburgh group coming off a down year, a run wouldn't surprise me.  However, the Fins took down the Bengals a year ago in Cincinnati, and weren't NEARLY as talented.  So, does lightning strike twice?  That's a good question.  In a close one, I'm giving the edge to the Bengals this time around, but don't be surprised if the Fins pull one off here.

Final: Bengals 24 Dolphins 21 

Game by game predictions: Weeks 3/4/5: Atlanta, @ New Orleans, Baltimore

Lightning round segment, buckle up.

Record after week 2: 2-0

All-time record against:  7-4


Tough draw for a home opener, huh?   I consider Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons among the top three teams in the ever powerful NFC, and for good reason.  They have a super star QB, a revamped running game, the best WR/TE core in the game, and an always sound defense.  In order for the Fins to win this football game they'll have to play a nearly perfect in every phase of the game, and, unfortunately, I just don't know if they can.  An upset here wouldn't shock me, it is the home opener, but I just can't see that happening as of NOW.

Final:  Falcons 31 Dolphins 17

Record after week 3: 2-1

All-time record against: 6-4


Are you ready for some football!?  Monday night football for the Fins here in week four, and it has the makings of a fun football game.  Expect some big time numbers in this one, as the Saints boast one of the best offenses in football, while, at the same time, boasting one of the league's worst defenses.  The question here is, can the Fins offense keep up?  And, maybe even more importantly, can the defense make enough stops to keep them in the game?  Unfortunately, those are two HUGE question marks at this point, and, while I think this one stays close, I find it hard to pick against Drew Brees at home.

Final:  Dolphins 24 Saints 27

Record after week 4: 2-2

All-time record against:  5-5


Following back to back losses, the Fins return home for a pivotal week five matchup against the Baltimore Ravens.  This will be a huge game for the Miami Dolphins, for a number of reasons.  Number one, it's the game going into the bye week.  Going into the bye at 3-2, instead of 2-3, means everything for this team.  Number two, you don't want to start the season 0-2 at home, especially when you already have a cautious fan base. Number three, this would be a signature win for a team trying to gain the respect of the NFL.  So, with that being said, do I think they can do it?  Absolutely.  Do I think they will?  That's a good question.  Joe Flacco has lost Anquan Boldin, and Dennis Pitta, while the defense has lost Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, and Dannell Ellerbe.  If the Fins were to EVER beat the Ravens, this would be the time.  And you know what, I think they pull it off.

Final:  Ravens 17 Dolphins 20  

Game by game predictions: Week 2 @ Indianapolis Colts

Record after week 1: 1-0

All-time record against: 46-25


Big time matchup here for the Miami Dolphins, and, more specifically, Ryan Tannehill. These two teams gave us a dandy of a game last season, with Andrew Luck out-dueling Ryan Tannehill en route to a 23-20 Colts win.  You can't sit there and tell me that Tannehill doesn't have this one circled on the schedule, and I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder.

Does this mean I think the Fins win this game?

Well, not exactly.

To be honest, this one is a coin flip to me.  The Colts haven't changed that much, if at all, since the meeting a year ago, while the Fins have no doubt become a better football team, on both sides of the ball.  Defense will be the key here, as it was Miami's achilles heel, and Andrew Luck's best friend, during this game last season.  If you remember, Luck set a rookie record for passing yards in a game (433), and converted an inhumane amount of third downs against Miami a year ago, and was the difference in the game. The Dolphin secondary CANNOT let anything even close to this happen again, or we'll be in a same sh**, different day situation.

Luckily, I don't see this happening.  Right now I feel confident that this new look Fins defense will handle Luck MUCH better, and it all starts with Brent Grimes.  The former Pro Bowler, as I've said many times before, looks primed for a HUGE year, and will match up well with Indianapolis receivers, who won't tower over the 5'10 Grimes. Between Grimes, Reshad Jones, Cameron Wake, and Dannell Ellerbe, this new look unit should pose a much bigger problem for Luck than the 2012 unit did.

Offensively, I expect Miami to shine against a defense that overall ranked 26th a year ago.  Let me put it to you like this- If Ryan Tannehill can go 22-38, for 290 yards and a TD against this defense with last year's offense, just imagine what he can do with the additions of Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson.

Another player to watch here is Lamar Miller.  The Colts run defense?  FOURTH worst last season, giving up an average YPC of 5.1, and an average of 137 YPG.  Yikes. Between Tannehill, Wallace, and Miller, this offense should have no problem putting up points in this game.

Okay, now to my prediction.  I know there are a lot of people out there buying into the Colts this season, and for good reason, but I think Luck and company are in for a down year.  There success last season sort of mirrored the 2008 Miami Dolphins success, in that everything went just right all year long.  I'm not taking anything away from Andrew Luck, but lets be honest, a lot of Indy's wins last season were built around the star QB's last name (see what I did there?), and I just don't see that happening again.

Big time win for the Miami Dolphins here, especially with their upcoming schedule.

Final:  Miami 27 Indianpolis 23

Game by game predictions: Week 1 @ Cleveland Browns

It's that time of the year again here at The Dolphinsider.

Yes, it's prediction time.  Or, in this case, prediction week, as, like always, I'll go through the Fins schedule game by game and dole out my predictions.  All of this will lead up to Sunday's opening day matchup with the Cleveland Browns.  Some days I'll do only one game, other days I may do three or four, who knows.  But by the weeks end YOU will know how I EXPECT the Miami Dolphins to do this season.

So, without further ado, to week one we go.  Enjoy.

Week 1: At Cleveland Browns

All-time record against:  9-8

Some may look at this as an easy opener for the Miami Dolphins.  I mean, it's just the Cleveland Browns, right?

Wrong.

First of all, this is a different Browns team than we saw last season.  New coach, new system, new year.  Second of all, this is opening week.  Anybody can win on any given Sunday, especially the FIRST Sunday when emotions are running high.  Third of all (is that a thing?), Brandon Weeden looked GOOD in the preseason, really good.  And, fourth of all (it's a thing now), it's a ROAD game.  The NFL is not an easy league to win in, and it's especially not easy when you're on the road.  Those are just the facts.

However, with all of that being said, I expect the Miami Dolphins to win this football game.  I believe Ryan Tannehill to be the better QB.  I believe the Dolphins to have a better WR core.  And, I believe the Dolphins to have the better defense (by miles).

The two things that worry me here are Trent Richardson, and recent history.  The Browns HAVE the advantage in the running game, there should be no question about that. Richardson had a solid rookie season a year ago, and many expect him to put up big time numbers this season.  As far as Miami's running game goes, it's still a huge question mark right now.  Lamar Miller showed us glimpses of what he could be in the preseason, but wasn't consistent ENOUGH.  Daniel Thomas WAS having a big preseason, until he put up and absolute dud against Tampa Bay.  This is the one area the Fins must be careful in, as it's the only area the Browns have the advantage.

As for the recent history that I mentioned?  How about this:

The Dolphins have lost the last FOUR meetings with the Browns, and haven't beaten them since December 2004.  Yikes.  That, combined with the fact the Miami has only won ONE season opener since 2005 (2010), tells me that the football God's may not be on the Fins' side in this one.  We'll see.

All in all, I expect the Miami Dolphins to absolutely win this football game.  They have the stronger defense, the better QB, and more playmakers on BOTH sides of the football.  The should win, and they better win, because you CANNOT be giving away winnable games when you have an early season schedule like they do.

But that's for another time.

Final: Dolphins 27 Browns 16